Estimating the economic effects of climate change on nature-based tourism: A comparison of revealed- and stated-preference methods

Exogenous effects of a changing climate may influence visitation for nature-based recreation sites such as national parks, and in turn, may impact the economy of a gateway community and the economic benefits of recreation. These studies represent the examination of the effects of climatic change on nature-based tourism.; The first paper uses revealed-preference data in the measurement of the relative effects of climate variables on visitation at Rocky Mountain National Park (RMNP) and its gateway community, Estes Park, Colorado. In a multiple regression of the past effects of climate variability on park visitation, temperature is found to have a positive and statistically significant effect on visitation. The results of the statistical model are used with an input-output model to estimate prediction intervals for the effects to regional employment. In testing the relative effects of climate change and population growth on future employment, population is found to be the only significant determinant.; The second paper uses contingent behavior analysis (stated-preference method) in the measurement of the effects of climate change on park visitation. A visitor survey at RMNP included descriptions of hypothetical climate scenarios, and questions about how respondents' visitation behavior would change contingent upon the scenarios. Both direct (weather-related) and indirect (resource-related) climate scenario variables are found to be positive and statistically significant determinants of behavioral changes. The results of the stated-preference analysis are compared with the revealed-preference results for methodological assessment, and we find that they are in close agreement.; The third paper uses the contingent valuation method (CVM) to estimate the effects of weather variables on recreation benefits (net willingness to pay) at RMNP. A visitor survey is used to gather responses to a dichotomous-choice CVM question about visitors' willingness to pay for their recreation experience. Responses are analyzed with daily weather data to measure the effects of temperature, precipitation, and cloud cover on recreation benefits. Both temperature and precipitation have a positive and statistically significant effect on the estimated recreation benefits per trip.; In each analysis, climate variables are found to have relatively small but statistically significant effects on visitation, regional economic measures, and recreation benefits.