The economic and food security implications of population, climate change, and technology: A case study for Mali

Since the green revolution in the early sixties, the rapid increases in agricultural production around the world left the Malthusian prognosis of food deficits in dormancy. Recently, however, the prognosis has resurged in the wake of rapid population increase and slow technological development, especially in the developing countries. Also, the projected change in the global climate is believed to adversely affect the low latitude developing countries. This research explored the nexus of population, climate change, and new technologies and examined its implications for Mali.; This research took a holistic view of the issue of food security in Mali by using an integrated assessment approach. Namely, a suite of economic and biophysical models was used. The biophysical models were used to project the biophysical environment in the crop and livestock sectors in response to resource utilization and climate change. An agriculture sector model was used to determine economic and food security implications of changes in the biophysical environment, the adoption of new technologies, and population growth. To relate the research results with food security in a more direct way, the FAO measure of risk of hunger was incorporated in the analytical framework used. In the process, the utility of the FAO measure was also enhanced by integrating the measure in a policy analysis framework and by providing its results at a more disaggregate level.; The results of this research show that the existing new technologies focusing on the productive areas in Mali provided a significant economic value, yet they were only moderately effective in reducing the risk of hunger as posed by bludgeoning population. The impact of climate change was serious in terms of lost economic welfare and increases in the risk of hunger. The welfare loss may be in the range of one to two percent of Gross Domestic Product, while the risk of hunger may increase from its present level of 32 percent to a range of 40 to 49 percent of the population. A shift in regional cropping pattern, changes in trade, and developing heat resistant varieties were found effective in reducing the adverse impact of climate change.