| By the effects of climate change in the21st century, the global occurrence of a disaster, such as China in early2008blizzard, not only the impact of the economy, transportation, people’s livelihood, but also brought many negative impact on their ecological food production. China is the largest global food demand, but also the most important agricultural country, so the impact of the harsh climate in2008is much smaller than other countries. But since the reform and opening up, China With the growth of industrialization, the pollution increased, including an increase in carbon dioxide reached in2007, the world’s largest, recently gradually along with the impact of climate change on the countries, as well as carbon rights and other issues of international seriously, the model of climate policy on climate change is even more important. In this study, subjects in China, and provincial data to establish food security policy model against climate change on China’s food security arising from direct and indirect effects, a series of analysis. The demand side, mainly in order the ACDS model to establish demand model, indeed the per capita demand for China’s agricultural structure change research, analyze and understand the impact of climate change on livestock and crops on the supply side, the combination of crop and livestock supply and demand model and the establishment of China’s food securitypolicy model. And further simulation development of low-carbon agriculture’s impact on China’s food security in the face of climate change, and the temperature rise of China’s regional production, consumption, price impact conduct raised on the findings and recommendations of the future food supply and demand forecasting.The study of China’s27provincial-level data, the establishment of China’s food security policy model contains rice, wheat, corn, soybeans, pork, lamb, beef and eggs of agricultural and livestock products, mainly for the climate change on China’s food security directlyand the indirect effects of a series of prediction and simulation analysis. The main innovations are as follows:1. This study, especially at the provincial level data model of China’s food security policy, and the provincial data aggregated into six regions of the north, northeast, east, south central, southwest and northwest, the main results presented are based on provincial data andsix geographical segments for regional analysis. China is now the great regional differences, the model can provide a different analysis of the various regions, a token reference.2. On the demand side, especially ACDS modeling combined with crops and livestock products demand model, does the per capita demand for China’s agricultural structure change.; Due to the sustained economic development, the Chinese demand on farming and livestock produce structural changes the ACDS model for farming or livestock through the model established in the agricultural, livestock alternative or complementary relationship series elastic analysis, according to explore changes in the structure of demand.3. This study included the supply side, then the temperature in the supply function to analyze and understand the impact of climate change on livestock and crops through the model prediction in maintaining the current climate rising (includes farming and livestock raised for food) future10-year supply, demand, and inventory forecasting results. And policy simulation model to simulate the development of low-carbon agriculture on food security in China, and the temperature rise of China’s regional supply, demand, inventory and retail prices of influence and impact in the face of climate change, according to provide policy advice, as a token reference.Important conclusions and recommendations of this thesis is as follows.1. The rice price elasticity of demand value are negative, and its value is the absolute value of less than one, the expenditure elasticity of demand is positive, a normal fiscal rice, its elasticity value of0.033. Wheat price elasticity of demand values are negative, in line with economic theory. And the absolute value of its value is greater than one. The expenditure elasticities of demand for wheat is0.910. Provinces corn price elasticity of demand value in addition to Shanghai, Qinghai, the rest of the provinces of corn price elasticity of demand values are negative, and its value is the absolute value of less than one. The corn demand expenditure elasticity is positive, a normal fiscal, a value of0.498. Provinces soybean demand price elasticity values are negative, and its absolute value is less than one, and from soybeans is mainly used as a feed grain under provinces elasticity values are approximate, approximately about0.703. 2. provinces pork price elasticity of demand value only in Shanxi is negative, and its value is the absolute value of less than one. The remaining26provinces and cities pork price elasticity of demand is due to the price of pork, the price index of agricultural products of interaction effects rendered as positive. Provinces lamb own price elasticity of demand values are negative, however, its absolute value is greater than a very elastic. Lamb demand expenditure elasticity, Shanxi elasticity value is less than an outer, and the remaining provinces are greater than one flexible. Provinces beef price elasticity of demand value is negative, Zhejiang, Guangdong, Guangxi, Hebei, Shanghai, Shandong, Guizhou elastic absolute value greater than one, is flexible. Expenditure elasticity of demand for beef in addition to Shanxi for less than one outside, the rest of the provinces are greater than one and elastic. Provinces egg price elasticity of demand values are positive, the egg demand expenditure elasticity is positive, and the value is not.3. Forecast rice, wheat production in2011and2020showed the trend of increase, the demand is also showing an increasing trend. However, because of the demand by the annual population continued to grow, inventory decreasing, the moment balance supply and demand is filled with the crisis. Look at other regions, East, South, Southwest region of rice are surplus grain regions, North, Northeast, Northwest still is a food-deficit regions, each region has significant differences exist. Domestic wheat stocks remain at around3.5million tons. To the regional point of view, in addition to the South, Northwest food shortages, the rest of the multi-rendered surplus grain. There is a rising trend in the amount of wheat stocks, natural increase marginally, also showed that the wheat industry is a supply and demand equilibrium situation, a year to maintain a certain inventory. Corn stocks to increase from169million tons in2011to192million tons in2020. A regional point of view, in addition to South, Northwest corn deficit areas, the rest of the surplus grain region. Soybean production accounted for only less than a quarter of the domestic demand, and less than the shortfall by20114,552tons continues to expand to the4,676million tons in2020, the the soybean large number rely on imports worthy of sustained attention.4. Forecast pork, lamb, beef and egg production in2011and2020presented yield trends, demand is also showing an increasing trend. Supply and demand balanced, pork demand, and continuous part of the import of pork, contingent imports forecast to maintain stability. Lamb in short supply, and the continuous part of the import lamb imports forecast to expand from14million tons in2011to450,000tons in2020. The beef fairly balanced supply and demand predict the future only have a small amount of about60,000tons of imports. Predict the next10years egg supply and demand continued to maintain a state of equilibrium.5. The development of low-carbon agriculture-to impose organic fertilizer prices a little pressure on the Chinese mainland livestock industry produces only if the authorities can control the price rose slightly, not only can achieve the purpose of low-carbon agriculture farmers words can also increase income. The other hand, that if the use of imported feed grains due to the low-carbon agriculture caused by reducing the production of some alternative, not only to the development of low-carbon agriculture, reduce pollution, and help maintain domestic price stability, finally able to combine food security objectives. Therefore, the impact of climate change, sustainable development of low-carbon agriculture as one of the possible strategies.6. The study results show that low temperatures lower the increase under the high temperature and the higher the temperature variation in climate change prompted the development of low-carbon agriculture basis, the implementation of the crops impose organic fertilizer, reduced crop yields may make this condition analog production in this study to reduce the impact on demand, inventory and prices, may cause prices rose slightly, but only slightly, should be within the range of government control. Temperatures rise2degrees C, the impact of agricultural livestock than cut5%and10%reduction was far greater, and regional differences increased as the temperature rises, the effect of differences also increased, so the climate agricultural and livestock region, the importance and necessity, this also shows that the research in the sub-region, by product and consider the temperature factors to study the contribution of academia and the agricultural economics profession.Several policy recommendations the thesis put forward specific policy proposals put forward by the first part, the traditional concept of food security; including cap-stable food cultivated area of land policy, the needs of the labor policy of the new technologies in agriculture, food price support policy, technology policy for increasing food production, as well as to adjust fertilizer steering organic manure fertilizer policy and import and export policies. The second part is for the decision-making departments of the two sides and Regional Development policy recommendations; including the focus on the ecological environment, the development of safe and high-quality agricultural products, the introduction of a carbon tax and the implementation of carbon trading, adjust the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure in rural areas. The third part of the recommendations for future research directions, suggest that the future inclusion of other important agricultural and livestock products, such as horticultural products (vegetables, fruits) livestock (chicken), so that the entire demand system more perfect. On the supply side, it is recommended to consider other climatic factors, such as soil, humidity, rainfall and other factors included in the model, so that supply and demand system improvements. |
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