Monitoring and modeling land-use change in the Pearl River Delta, China, using satellite imagery and socioeconomic data

Over the last two decades, rapid rates of economic growth in the People's Republic of China have converted large areas of natural ecosystems and agricultural lands to urban uses. The size and rate of these land-use changes may affect local and regional climate, biogeochemistry, and food supply. To assess these impacts, both the amount of land converted and its relation to socioeconomic drivers must be determined. This research combines satellite remote sensing, which is used to monitor land conversion, with socioeconomic data to model the economic and demographic drivers of land-use change in the Pearl River Delta of Southern China.; This research modifies existing techniques and develops new methods to assess the type, amount, and timing of land-use change from annual Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) images from 1988 to 1996. During this period, most of the land-use change is conversion of agricultural land to urban areas. Results indicate that urban areas, increased by over 300% between 1988 and 1996. Field assessments confirm these results and indicate that the land-use change map is highly accurate at 93.5%.; To use these data as inputs to statistical models, the year of land conversion derived from satellite imagery must be unbiased. A new method that uses time series techniques identifies the date at which land-use changes occur from a sequential series of TM images. The accuracy and bias of the dates of change identified compare favorably to a more conventional remote sensing change detection technique and may have the additional advantages of reducing efforts required to assemble training data and to correct for atmospheric effects.; Data on the quantity of land-use change and the timing of these changes are used in conjunction with socioeconomic data to estimate statistical models that identify and quantify the demographic and economic changes on two types of land conversion: urbanization of agricultural land and urbanization of natural vegetation. Results confirm conventional theory that wage differentials between urban and agricultural sectors, foreign direct investment, and income growth are important determinants of land-use change.