Forecasting advertising communication effects using media exposure distribution models: Test market results in South Korea

The primary objective of this study is to demonstrate how to predict advertising communication effects using a variation of the beta binomial exposure distribution (BBD) model. A computer based model which embodies important aspects of normative theories of media planning is used to forecast the communication effects of a South Korean advertising campaign.;Due to the lack of systematic study of advertising effects in South Korea, the South Korean advertising industry needs objective and scientific methods to develop a model that is applicable to the South Korean advertising environment. Therefore, this study applied a media exposure distribution model that is used in the United States and worldwide to the South Korean market to probe how accurately such models and procedures can predict the communication effects of a South Korean advertising campaign. A consumer tracking study is used to determine the accuracy of forecasting advertising campaign effects.;Prior to the application of the media evaluation model and procedures, survey research was conducted among South Korean media practitioners. The goal was to show how the media practitioners view the current state of reach/frequency estimation methods and which communication effects are used to predict or measure potential advertising impact. Based on the survey results, previous studies as well as marketing, copy, and media factors, an effective exposure frequency level is estimated to predict target audience awareness of a South Korean advertising campaign message.;In addition to advertising message awareness, this study also examines target audience preference and willingness to purchase for the brand used as a case study. Minimum frequencies of consumer exposure to the advertising campaign necessary to achieve preference and willingness to purchase also are estimated with the same normative framework. Then, the minimum effective frequency levels are analyzed in comparison with actual consumer tracking data to determine whether more accurate predictions would have been possible.;The study results showed that the normative framework and media exposure distribution model used in this study can be accurately used in predicting target audience awareness of the campaign message. The prediction for target audience awareness of the campaign message was close to the tracking study results. With additional calibrating options, the predicted awareness of the campaign message could be exactly matched with the tracking study results.;This study also suggests that there may be a hierarchy in consumer processing of advertising messages. The needed target audience exposure to achieve preference was significantly higher than the needed exposure for awareness. The needed message exposure for willingness to use was also significantly higher than the target audience exposure for awareness and preference. Though many more factors should be considered for accurately predicting or evaluating advertising effects in terms of preference and willingness to use, this study still provided useful results for the estimation of advertising effects on preference and willingness to use.;The advertising campaign used as a case study also was critically analyzed to suggest appropriate monthly budgets and vehicle selections for future campaigns. The sophisticated approach used in this study was compared with typical naive approaches to show how the potential gaps can be misleading.;In this study, the normative frameworks, media exposure distribution models, evaluation methods, including many influential factors, and calibrating procedures provide useful guidance for forecasting advertising communication effects.