CATASTROPHE THEORY MODEL OF THE EMPLOYEE WITHDRAWAL PROCESS LEADING TO JOB TERMINATION

Empirical examination of employee withdrawal from work models have generally accounted for relatively small amounts of withdrawal variance (approximately 16%). Two recent employee withdrawal models which attempt to improve upon this have received much attention. The Mobley (1977) model posits a ten (10) step withdrawal progression, but does not present factors which may be the impetus for movement through this process. Price (1977) posits determinants which effect turnover, but does not actually examine a multistage withdrawal process. Neither of these withdrawal models have been examined via longitudinal designs. Also, employee withdrawal research has assumed the phenomenon to occur as a smooth transition (linear statistical models) when movement through the process may actually occur as employees reach some threshold (catastrophe theory models) on determinant variables.;The posited withdrawal process does appear to occur. Evidence is presented that the micro level variables of organizational commitment and job tension are concurrently impetus for movement through a termination. A cusp-catastrophe theory approach suggested this movement occurred as employees reached some threshold of organizational commitment and job tension. Analysis of covariance showed that these two determinant variables were also linearly related to movement from intent to stay to intent to leave, but not from intent to leave to actual termination.;A second non-competing macro level set of determinant variables were also examined as impetus for progression through the process. Group support and administrative support were found to support the threshold effect for progression through both stages of the posited withdrawal process. Analysis of covariance suggested that a smooth transition of group and administrative support did not act as impetus for progression for either stage of the posited withdrawal process.;The current study uses linear and catastrophe theory analytical approaches to examine progression through a withdrawal process model which integrates both Mobley's and Price's notions. A longitudinal design is used which consists of two questionnaires and actual turnover data of nursing personnel from five intermediate sized (bed n = 120 to 242) nursing homes located in rural settings.