A Study On Carbon Dioxide Intensity In China Based On Comparable Price IO-SDA Model

With the gradual increment of greenhouse gas emissions mainly include carbon dioxide, the problem of climate change which caused by greenhouse gas is now attracting widespread attention in the world. The fifth appraisal report of IPCC shows clearly:Man-made influence is very likely to be the main reason for the global warming phenomenon observed since the middle of20th century. Our country is facing up to great pressure of reducing emissions in the global society because it is our country that has the largest global carbon dioxide emissions currently, and therefore our country is in the face of great pressure of reducing emissions. Urbanization and various infrastructure construction need to consume lots of fossil energy as our country is currently in the middle of industrialization, As the demand for fossil energy continues to grow for a long period in the future, the continuing growth of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas emissions is inevitable, so there will be a conflict between absolute number of emission reduction and economic growth inevitably. In view of the situation of our country, in2009our government made a promise that reducing carbon dioxide intensity40%to45%by2020. Under the premise of steady economic growth in China, how to realize our emissions reduction promise and how to establish the appropriate emissions reduction policy so that decrease the carbon dioxide intensity of our country have become a problem which needs great attention.Carbon dioxide intensity is chosen as the research object in this article. Through the review and analysis of a large number of relevant literatures in this paper, the main theoretical basis and research methods are put forward, with the introduction of economic resources and environment input-output tables, input-output model of carbon dioxide intensity is established. Based on input-output model of carbon dioxide intensity, structural decomposition analysis (IO-SDA) model is adopted to analyze the factors that influence the carbon dioxide intensity, determine the effect of various factors, summarize favorable factors and unfavorable factors for reducing the carbon dioxide intensity and the corresponding measures to reduce emissions is put forward according to the empirical analysis results. Main contents can be divided into the following several parts:Chapter1is the introduction. This chapter mainly demonstrates the background and significance, defines the object and scope of this research and introduces the main contents, research ideas, methods, innovation points and also shortcomings of the article.Chapter2mainly focus on the literature review at home and abroad, induces several methods of accounting carbon dioxide emissions, especially has an detailed introduction and summary of inventory method which is adopted in this article. And also compares and analyzes two factor decomposition methods:one is index decomposition method and the other is structural decompositional approach, both of which are widely used in research of carbon dioxide intensity, chooses structure decomposition method based on input-output model as the main method of empirical analysis in this paper.Chapter3mainly carries out an accounting of the quantities of carbon dioxide emissions according to inventory method, and makes a summary of the features of carbon dioxide emissions on the basis of it. Look back the total quantity of carbon dioxide emissions, it takes on an imbalance in various provinces; from the variation trend of carbon dioxide intensity, carbon dioxide intensity is on the decline in most provinces except individual places. From the industry features of carbon dioxide emissions, the quantities of carbon dioxide emissions in energy production and processing and transformation industry, industrial manufacturing industry and transportation industry are obviously more over than other industries; By comparing the total quantities of carbon dioxide emissions, the quantity of carbon emissions per capita, carbon dioxide intensity in international world, the results show the quantity of carbon emissions per capita is not high although the total quantity of carbon dioxide emissions in China is the highest in the world. Even though the carbon dioxide intensity has been decreasing in recent years in our country, comparing to western developed countries, the overall level is still higher, and there is still a great deal of room for decreasing. Chapter4introduces the theoretical and approach basis of the research in the article, mainly demonstrates the theoretical basis and method model includes the theory of low-carbon economy, input-output analysis, the compiling principle of comparable price of input-output table, the noncompetitive input-output model and structural decomposition analysis. Through bringing into the input-output table of economy-resourse-enrvironment, establishes input-output model of carbon dioxide intensity and apply structural decomposition analysis to disassemble the alteration of carbon dioxide intensity.Chapter5pays close attention to the data preprocessing largely. Firstly, makes a corresponding combination with all data of energy consumption from all departments in order to make sure the industry classification of energy data and the comparable price input-output sequential tables keep the same; Secondly, sets up the form for input-output table and standard for department classification for the year of1997,2002,2007and2010, and makes a corresponding combination to the input-output table of current prices according to the department classification standard; Then set the price base year and producer price index, and finally compiles comparable price input-output sequential table from1997-2010taking2002as the price base year, which adopts the compiling principles of comparable price input-output table introduced in Chapter3according to the price index and the input-output sequential table at current price.An empirical research on the variation factors of influencing carbon dioxide intensity is carried out on the basis of the input-output model of carbon dioxide intensity in Chapter6, and structural decomposition analysis (IO-SDA) is adopted in the research. Disassembling overall economy carbon dioxide intensity and the variation of carbon dioxide intensity in respective departments into energy structure effect, energy intensity effect, technology effect, import replacement effect, final demand product structure effect and final demand distribution structure effect and classifies influenced factors into production mode and demand mode. The result of the empirical research shows that it is the change of production mode that be responsible for the decrease of carbon dioxide intensity in our country. But the main obstructive factor of influencing carbon dioxide intensity is the change of demand mode. Based on the result of the empirical research Chapter7puts forward some policies and suggestions to decrease carbon dioxide intensity from the following aspects:optimizing the energy structure, adjusting and optimizing industrial structure, promoting the advancement of technology, training low carbon demand mode etc. The ending is the summary and prospect, summarizes the whole dissertation and also includes the prospect of further research. Three innovative points mainly are as follows:1. On the basis of looking back lots of literatures relevant to the accounting of greenhouse gas, refers to the method of accounting carbon dioxide emissions provided in The2006IPCC country listing guidelines of greenhouse gases(Hereinafter referred to as the guide) and accounts the carbon dioxide emissions which produced by energy activities. Because the classification of energy in The guide does not completely correspond with the classification of energy in China Statistical Yearbook, the dissertation combines The general principles of the comprehensive energy consumption calculation and Provincial greenhouse gas inventories preparation guidelines so that set carbon dioxide emissions factors due to various energies and the unit content of calorific value and oxygenation efficiency, which more suitable for the current situation of our country than the default value provided in the Guide; Because of the limitation of acceptable data, some data such as loss of energy processing and transformation, energy loss, non fuel purpose of energy and so on, could not be accepted, which results in the data of energy consumption is greater than practical value so that arouses a problem that the result of calculating the total quantity of carbon dioxide emissions trends to be greater. The dissertation attempts to modify the deviation by using the method that taking the lower limit of95%confidence interval in carbon dioxide emissions factors. This processing method has not been found in relevant researches.2. The dissertation brings into input-output table of economy-resource-environment to set up input-output model of carbon dioxide intensity. The input-output table of economy-resource-environment links up the data relationship smoothly in economy flow table, resource input table, pollution emission table and reveals the inner relationship between economy, resource and environment in order to analyze the carbon dioxide intensity. 3. In the process of compiling comparable price input-output table, all products in various departments in current price input-output table need to be deflated correspondingly by adopting producer price index of the products in various departments. For the deflation of comparable price of the products in industrial departments, the dissertation makes use of producer price index according to industry. Because it is impossible to get the producer price index in the various departments in the tertiary industry, price index in the tertiary industry is adopted in the deflation of comparable price of the products in the tertiary industry, just as the producer price index approximately in the tertiary industry. These processing methods are very innovative based on the compiling method of current price input-output table. In addition, the dissertation compiles the comparable price input-output table, which according to the input-output table in2007, the input-output extended table in2010and taking.2002as the price base year, includes the comparable input-output table of28departments in2007and2010(in appendix), is the most fresh fruit in the field of compiling current comparable price input-output table in domestic.