| Nowadays,natural resources are in increasingly shortage,and the environmental destruction and ecological degradation are intensifying.So the concepts of ecological civilization,sustainable development and resource circulation were paid close attention by the international society.National governments,international organizations and non-governmental organizations all took measures actively to solve this complex problem about human destiny,hopefully for the maximum extent.In the same time,these measures can also promote the sustainable and harmonious development of economy,society,resources and environment.At present,domestic aluminum resource supply capacity is weak due to limited bauxite resource endowment,and the uncertainty of its import is very big.Faced with the large and rigid increasing trend in aluminum consumption demand,one of the resource problems that China urgently needs to solve is the insecure and unsustainable supply of aluminum resource.The purpose of this study is to analyze quantitatively China's aluminum resource's shortage in order to facilitate its cyclic utilization,optimize its allocation,and guarantee the sustainable supply of aluminum resource.First,this thesis analyzes the resource endowment of China's bauxite,simulates the metabolic process of aluminum in the production stage of China's aluminum industry by applying the international resource and environment management method:material flow analysis,and describes the status of aluminum elements in the production stage since 1996.In the same time,this paper analyzes the supply and consumption of aluminum resources in the past two decades and predicts the consumption demand of China's primary aluminum in the next 15 years.On the basis of lots of data analysis,the supply structure and security guarantee degree model of China's aluminum resource is established,and then the supply structure and security guarantee degrees in the last 20 years are measured dynamically.To find the factors that weaken its sustainable guarantee degree and how to optimize its supply structure in the end,this paper also establishes the evaluation indexes matrix of sustainable guarantee situation of China's aluminum resource.This paper takes the years 1996,2000,2005,2010 and 2015 as examples to evaluate its sustainable guarantee situation.Moreover,this paper studies the general situation of renewable resources and aluminum cyclic utilization of the globe and typical developed countries,as well as the development status of China's recycled aluminum industry.The potential of cyclic utilization of China's aluminum resource is enormous,and it makes huge contributions to improving guarantee degrees and realizing its sustainable supply.China is equipped with the basic conditions needed for aluminum's recycling,therefore cyclic utilization of aluminum metal can optimize the supply structure to a large extent and solve its sustainable security problem.The main findings and conclusions of this study are as follows:(1)Obtained from the metabolic simulation of aluminum in the production stage: during the period of 1996-2016,China's aluminum production industry developed rapidly,various aluminum flows were increasing,and larger and larger scrap was recycled and reused.On the supply side,the average annual growth rates in this period of primary aluminum output,total aluminum products,and aluminum wire roads are 15.9%,21.9%,and 25.8% respectively.The secondary aluminum industry in China shows a tendency of stable and rapid development,and its average increase rate is 25%.With respect to trade,the quantities of imported or exported bauxite,alumina,and unwrought aluminum kept increasing in general,but the course was full of reversals and zigzags.China is an exporter of high-end aluminium products and an importer of low-end aluminium products,so it has to seek a transformation for its trade structure.On the consumption side,aluminum consumption quantity has grown exponentially in last two decades,and has been the world's largest consumer of aluminum since 2008.The biggest change in aluminum consumption structure is consumer durables,but consumption quantity of other aluminum-containing products didn't change much,mainly used for construction and transportation.Combining the extruded "S" model method with the department consumption method,the peak value of China's primary aluminum consumption demand will reach around 2023,when the consumption is about 37 million tons.The primary aluminum consumption demand in2020,2025 and 2030 will be 35 million tons,36 million tons and 33 million tons respectively.(2)The supply structure that satisfies China's aluminum consumption in 1996was: primary aluminum: 81.5%,secondary aluminum: 8.3%,and trade: 10.2%;nevertheless in 2016,it was: 84.7%,15.5%,and-0.2%.In a word,the supply structure of China's aluminum basically consists of 80% of primary aluminum and20% of secondary aluminum,but the potential for a rapid increase in secondary aluminum will be huge.In addition,with respect to the total guarantee degree,because almost half of the bauxite and scrap need to be imported,the proportions of self-productive primary and secondary aluminum decreased to 51.8% and 10.3%.So in the end,the total supply guarantee degree of domestic aluminum resource dropped from 87.7% in 1996 to 62.1% in 2016,mainly hovering at 50% since 2006.In 2007 and 2013,it was less than 50 percent.Therefore,China's aluminum resource was in short supply,and resource constraints will persist for a long time.(3)After evaluation by technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution(TOPSIS),the sustainable guarantee situations of China's aluminum resource in 1996 and 2015 are better than other years.But the relative close degrees to the ideal solution are at around 0.5,and therefore the distance of Chinese aluminum industry to the sustainable goal is still a long way to go.Besides,the contribution of secondary aluminum to the sustainable guarantee of aluminum resources is relatively large.So in the future,the government ought to set up the resource recovery system as soon as possible in the later development process.The purpose of these measures is to make aluminum-containing products that have been used or are being used recycle into new sources of reserves.Accordingly,it can optimize the supply structure of aluminum resource and ensure its sustainable supply.(4)China is equipped with basic conditions needed for cyclic utilization of aluminum resource.The most important point is substantial volumes of domestic consumption and social stocks every year,and it signifies tremendous potential for cyclic utilization of aluminum.The calculation results show: the supply amounts of recycled aluminum in 2020,2025 and 2030 are 10 million tons,12 million tons and12 million tons respectively.The proportions in primary aluminum consumption demand are 29%,33% and 33%,and account for 22%,25% and 25% respectively of total consumption demand.The peak of aluminum consumption is in 2023,when the supply amount of recycled aluminum is 13 million tons,accounting for 35% of the primary aluminum demand,and nearly 26% of the total consumption demand.The contribution of the recycled aluminum supply to guarantee degree is to make it increase by more than 10%,and even 20% on the basis of technological progress.The cyclic utilization of aluminum scrap reduces the economic cost of importing bauxite and aluminum scrap,and it also has outstanding performance in environmental protection.This study is based on the practical experiences of typical developed countries in the cyclic utilization of renewable resources and aluminum metal.In order to improve the security guarantee degree and ensure its sustainable supply,this study puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions.The government's guidance plays a crucial role.The government should strengthen its guidance,and improve relevant laws,policies,and regulations system;coordinate the cooperation relationships between renewable resource enterprises and corresponding research institutes,so as to promote the effectiveness of recovering means and research and development of regeneration technologies;improve the recycling system of all kinds of resources,and build professional recycling networks;strengthen the publicity of advertising,newspaper,TV,radio and so on to advance the participation awareness in environmental protection of the public.When the cyclic utilization of aluminum resource is on the right track and it's gradually standardized,the government should reduce the intervention,and the market mechanism will play its crucial role.At the same time,China should actively implement the strategy of "going out" to promote the effective exploitation and utilization of overseas resources. |
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