| Tungsten is an important strategic resource related to national defense security and economic lifeline.Many countries regard tungsten as a strategic key mineral.However,the global tungsten resources are unevenly distributed.China’s reserves and output of tungsten resources rank first in the world,but China has not yet obtained the benefits commensurate with its market share.China’s tungsten is undervalued in the international export market.Therefore,it is necessary to study the transmission mechanism of product price fluctuations in the tungsten industry chain between China’s domestic market and the international trade market.This paper studies the transmission mechanism of product price fluctuation in the tungsten industry chain from three aspects: the asymmetry of price fluctuation transmission,the time lag of price fluctuation transmission and the cascading transmission path of price fluctuation.(1)This thesis constructs a transmission network model of the international trade price fluctuations of products in tungsten industry chain.It describes the transmission relationship of international trade price fluctuations of various products in the tungsten industry chain,and analyzes the asymmetry of the price fluctuation transmission of various products in the tungsten industry chain.The study found that the transmission network of trade price fluctuations for the midstream product(ammonium paratungstate)of the tungsten industry chain has the greatest asymmetry in strength,and the transmission network of trade price fluctuations for the upstream product(tungsten concentrate)of the tungsten industry chain has the greatest asymmetry in speed.An accurate understanding of the asymmetry of the transmission strength and speed of different products trade price fluctuations in the tungsten industry chain can avoid misjudgments caused by understanding the transmission of trade price fluctuations from a symmetric perspective.(2)This thesis constructs a lagging transmission network model of product price fluctuations in China’s tungsten industry chain,and analyzes the evolution characteristics of the transmission relationship between current product price fluctuations and the evolution characteristics of the transmission relationship between past price fluctuations and current price fluctuations.The results show that from a long-term perspective,product price fluctuations in the next link in the tungsten industry chain have a greater impact on product price fluctuations in the previous link.From a short-term perspective,in different periods,the role of each product in the product price fluctuation transmission network of China’s tungsten industry chain is different.In addition,the past price fluctuations of the upstream and midstream products(tungsten concentrate,ammonium paratungstate,tungsten oxide)of China’s tungsten industry chain have the greatest impact on the current price fluctuation of tungsten concentrate.When policy makers are concerned about the impact of past price fluctuations of a product on its current price fluctuations,they also need to pay attention to the impact of past price fluctuations of other products in the industry chain on its current price fluctuations to avoid underestimating the risk of price fluctuations.(3)Based on the first two parts,this thesis embeds China’s domestic industry chain into the international industry chain and constructs a cascading transmission network model of product price fluctuations in the tungsten industry chain.It studies the cascading transmission path and its transmission strength of the price fluctuations of various products in the tungsten industry chain between the international trade market and China’s domestic market.The results show that the price fluctuations with lag one-month time window of different products in China’s tungsten industry chain have the greatest impact on the international trade price fluctuations.In addition,the transmission strength on the direct transmission path is the largest.With the gradual increase of the transmission links of price fluctuations,the transmission strength of price fluctuations on the path gradually converges.In order to more accurately formulate the price control policies of products in China’s tungsten industry chain,the transmission mechanism of price fluctuations between China’s domestic market and international trade market should be considered comprehensively.This is of great significance for improving the international price influence and international status of China’s dominant mineral-tungsten. |
