Study On China's Coal Price Fluctuation And Its Macroeconomic Effects With Policy Transmission

As China's economic development moves from "high-growth" to "high-quality",the price fluctuation of coal,as the main energy source,is playing a more and more prominent role in China's economic growth.Meanwhile,the implemented coal price policy seems to be conducive to calming coal price fluctuations in the short run.However,its long-term transmission impact and economic operation risks have a growing uncertainty.Thus,this paper takes coal price fluctuation as the research object to deeply analyze its transmission relationship with coal price policy,to scientifically evaluate the actual regulation effect of China's coal price policy.Moreover,this paper furtherly analyzes the macroeconomic effects of coal price fluctuations with the transmission effects of different coal price policies to avoid falling into the vicious circle of “price fluctuations?government mandatory intervention”.The contributions of this paper are mainly reflected as follows:Firstly,by the comparative analysis of China's coal price fluctuations and coal price policies,this paper concluded that China's coal price fluctuations are caused by the spontaneous regulation of the coal market and government intervention.Meanwhile,the EEMD results show that: 1)China's coal price fluctuations will be affected by longterm trends,high-frequency variables caused by short-term market supply and demand changes,and low-frequency variables caused by major events such as coal policy adjustments;2)Coal price policy is closely related to the volatility structure of lowfrequency variables,and it may have an impact on coal price fluctuations;3)Based on the ARIMA(1,1,2)model,this paper also proposed that China's coal prices will maintain a slight decline in the next 1-2 years.Secondly,this paper concludes China's coal price policies which is divided into direct pricing policy and indirect price regulation policy.Then,this paper designed different types of coal price policy proxy variables according to the difference of policy instruments.The reliability result indicates that the long-term fluctuation trend of the proxy variables designed in this paper is in line with the actual situation of China's coal industry development.After that,this paper adopted GMM model and constructed the forward-looking parameter based on the expectation theory.The main results showed that: 1)The direct pricing policy implemented by the government during 2008-2017 can exert a restraining effect on coal price fluctuations,and the government can rationally choose long-term and short-term direct pricing policy tools and policy combinations when maximizing their effectiveness;2)The production control policy only brings a small increase in coal prices in the short term,compared with the regulation of market supply and demand,which provides a supporting evidence for this policy;3)The policy joint release model can strengthen the effect of policy implementation regardless of whether the price policy is effective;4)The levels are affected by the choice of policy tools directly as well as the policy release method.Fourthly,based on the above DSGE model,this paper discussed the shock impacts of coal price and price policy in different scenarios,including the base one without policy intervention(S01),the one with the medium-and long-term coal contract policy(S02),the one with coal capacity cut policy(S03)and the one with market structure adjustment policy(S04).The findings showed that: 1)Policy intervention will distort the transmission effect of coal supply and demand or other factors on coal price,whose shock impact will be weakened on macroeconomic variables in S02,but strengthened on that in S03 and S04;2)Different from S02 and S04,the coal capacity cut policy in S03 will bring about a decline in total output in the long run,which reflects the economic cost of this policy;3)The short-term transmission impact of indirect price regulation policy on macroeconomic variables is significantly weaker than that of the market spontaneous adjustment.Finally,based on the above results,this paper proposes an optimized plan for China's coal price regulation.Specifically,the government is suggested to objectively evaluate the actual effects of medium-and long-term coal contract policy,and to flexibly select policy instruments along with the joint release method for improving the policy's forward-looking level.Moreover,the government can also choose to appropriately increase the policy intensity of coal capacity elimination and market structure adjustment,and to guide and standardize the market-oriented trading behaviors of both coal supply and demand sides,aiming at rationally suppressing coal price fluctuation,effectively governing coal overcapacity and rapidly increasing the degree of coal marketization.The paper includes 38 figures,32 tables,203 references.