Research On Model Improvement And Software Development For Cruise Ship Personnel Evacuation Simulation

Shipwrecks have repeatedly reminded the shipping industry of the value of reliable and effective evacuation as the final barrier to protect passengers from accidents,which is important for the safe operation of large surface vessels,namely,cruise ships.With the increase in vehicle size,under the premise of acceptable cost and reliability,experimental methods would not result in a good comprehensive effect in terms of economic cost,rich experimental data,and credible outcomes.Thus,employing a simulation model formulated on the basis of pedestrian traffic theory for simulating the process of evacuating people on a large-sized ship would have better theoretical significance and practical value.To resolve the abovementioned problems,on the basis of agent theory and pedestrian traffic model,this study proposed an evacuation model on the basis of a goal-driven agent,and the model's reliability was verified on the basis of the International Maritime Organization(IMO)benchmark tests.It also considered life-saving equipment acquisition,pedestrian counterflow,and multideck evacuation within the actual emergency scene during marine accidents.This model extended its application scope by improving the pedestrian behavior and pedestrian traffic model,which was then verified through experimental data comparison.On the basis of this,the study thereby developed a cruise ship evacuation simulation software,optimizing cruise ship security and further proving the proposed model's feasibility.First,it deeply explored the connotation of pedestrian flow and self-organization by analyzing current research results.Thus,it determined the proposed model's initial parameters on the basis of the evacuation process,relevant IMO regulations,and factors influencing the evacuation process,combined with individual physiological and group movement characteristics.To strike a balance between computational precision and complexity,this paper proposed a unidirectional ship evacuation simulation model on the basis of a goal-driven agent and considered group behavior by combining the social force model with the steering force model.Not only did this address low computational efficiency and the lack of group behavior in the social force model,but it also simulated obstacle crossing and bypass behaviors.The model was validated by 11 tests provided by IMO,the unidirectional flow fundamental diagram,and the restaurant test scenario,which completely supported the model's reliability and effectiveness.On the basis of the unidirectional flow model and the influence of wearing life jackets as stipulated in IMO MSC.1/Circ.1533,considering the unpredictable factors of passenger behavior in emergency situations,a bidirectional flow ship evacuation simulation model was proposed by adding the counterflow submodel and rectifying the decision submodel,which includes the use of life jackets.The reliability of this suggested model was verified by simulating the bidirectional flow test scenario in a single deck of a cruise ship.Based on the analysis of the current commercial ship evacuation software,from the perspective of the practical application of the whole ship evacuation simulation,a vertical flow evacuation simulation model considering the transfer of passengers between multiple desk was proposed.The thesis takes the lead in considering the individual's psychological factor,and simulates the behavior of passengers with adventurous personality who detour to other stairs after losing their patience.On the basis of the bidirectional flow model,the simulation model was further expanded by adding hierarchical path planning sub-model,so that it can be practically applied to the evacuation simulation of the real cruise ships.The reliability of the model was verified by the simulation of staircase scene,experiment scene and multi-deck scene.Finally,on the basis of the vertical flow model,this study developed a cruise evacuation simulation software,AEvac.It has passed the verification of the SGVDS2 dataset provided by the EU SAFEGUARD project,and the prediction results were more consistent with the experimental data and better than other commercial softwares,indicating the model's credibility and practicality.Aiming at the shortest evacuation time,based on AEvac,an advanced evacuation simulation analysis was performed on the Ocean Jewelry cruise ship.The software's suggestions,such as increasing the vertical zone and improving the position of life-saving equipment,had no obvious influence on daily use,standard restrictions,and construction difficulty,but these suggestions can effectively reduce evacuation time in extreme cases and maximize passenger safety.