Research On The Integrated Economic Evaluation Of Exploration And Development In Oilfields

Oil and natural gas energy are important strategic energy sources in China.At present,the domestic oil and natural gas productions are much lower than their consumptions,and their dependences on foreign countries remain high.In order to ensure national energy security,China must strengthen the exploration and development of domestic oil and gas,increase new geological reserves,and increase oil and gas productions.As an important content of exploration and development management,the economic evaluation of exploration and development is of great significance to the decision-making of oilfield exploration and development.Scientific economic evaluation of exploration and development can help the oilfield to grasp the economic situation of exploration and development in time and take targeted measures to improve economic benefits.At present,the majority of oilfields in China are in the middle and late stage of development,with high water cut,high recovery,rapid production decline,and low oil price,which brings many adverse factors to the exploration and development of oilfields,and is not conducive to the economic benefits.Therefore,it is necessary for oilfield enterprises to analyze the economic characteristics of exploration and development from the perspective of the whole process,establish an integrated economic evaluation system,and carry out the integrated economic evaluation of exploration and development,so as to objectively evaluate the current situation of oilfield exploration and development,find out the deficiencies,and obtain targeted benefit improvement countermeasures to support the sustainable and high-quality development of oilfield.In this paper,the methods of literature research,expert investigation and comprehensive evaluation are used to carry out the economic evaluation of oilfield exploration and development integration.The main work of this paper is as follows:(1)The economic characteristics of exploration and development in oilfields are analyzed to grasp the economic influencing factors in each stage of exploration,development,production and operation;the current situation of economic evaluation in oilfields is analyzed,and it is found that there are mainly problems such as the current evaluation biased to project evaluation,biased to ex ante evaluation,partial economic benefit evaluation index,and incomplete economic evaluation system.(2)According to the construction principle and ideas,through expert investigation and statistical screening,the economic evaluation index system of integration of exploration and development in oilfields is finally established,which includes three firstlevel indicators of oil and gas exploration,oil and gas development,production and operation,13 second-level indicators and 38 third-level indicators.An integrated economic evaluation model system for the exploration and development of oilfields is constructed,which integrates single evaluation model,ex ante and ex post test and combination evaluation model.The index weighting method adopts subjective and objective combination weighting method of analytic hierarchy process,fuzzy-rough and entropy;the single evaluation model includes three models of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation,grey relational evaluation,and TOPSIS evaluation;the combination evaluation model includes simple averaging,entropy weight,max satisfactory,offset and Shapley value.According to the results of the combination evaluation model,the in-depth analysis methods including oilfield cluster analysis,classification rule analysis and partial correlation analysis are proposed.(3)Through the case analysis of 43 oilfields in Shengli Oilfield,the scientific and applicability of the above evaluation index system and model system are verified.At the same time,43 oilfields are divided into eight categories,and measures to improve economic benefits are put forward according to the characteristics of each category and the actual situation of oilfields;three classification rules are given to illustrate the importance of production and operation evaluation to the overall evaluation;and the main factors affecting the economic evaluation of oil and gas exploration,development and production and operation are analyzed.Combining the characteristics of each area,the measures to improve economic benefits of Shengli Oilfield are proposed.(4)The safeguard measures for the economic evaluation of oilfield exploration and development integration are proposed,including improving the organizational management system,standardizing data acquisition,formulating supporting system,setting up information sharing platform and establishing professional talent team.The main innovations in this paper are as follows:(1)A more comprehensive and consistent economic evaluation index system of oilfield exploration and development integration is established.The traditional independent evaluation indexes of exploration,development and production are improved.The integrated economic evaluation index system based on the whole process of exploration and development of oil fields(blocks)covers three aspects: oil and gas exploration,oil and gas development,and production and operation,incorporates benefits measurement dimensions such as resources,economy,environment,risk,and technology,and include 38 specific third-level indicators.This provides a consistent basis for the integrated economic evaluation of exploration and development of oilfields.(2)A systematic and sequential integrated economic evaluation model system for exploration and development of Soilfields is established,that is,the basic paradigm from single evaluation,prior inspection,combination evaluation to post-evaluation,and the modeling ideas and steps of the evaluation model are given.This provides an objective integrated method system for the integrated economic evaluation of exploration and development of oilfields.(3)The deep excavation and analysis models of the integrated economic evaluation results of exploration and development of oilfields are constructed,including cluster analysis,classification rules based on rough sets,and influence factor analysis based on partial correlation coefficient.This provides a realistic reference guide for the common category analysis of oilfields(blocks)and the key countermeasures for improving economic benefits.