Research On The Design Of Carbon Emission Trading Mechanism Based On Multi-agent Model

With global warming and the international community's attention to greenhouse gas emissions,emissions trading scheme(ETS)as a cost-effective way to reduce emissions is attracting more and more attention worldwide.Moreover,the integration of emissions trading schemes has become an important option for international cooperation with the general objective of reaching a global agreement on climate change mitigation.At present,China's carbon emission trading market is in the initial stage,pilot work is progressing steadily,and the national carbon emission trading market has been successfully established.The specific trading rules are still to be discussed,and how to formulate specific carbon emission allocation system and trading rules are urgent to be solved.This paper takes the trading mechanism of carbon emission rights as the research subject,and conducts research from the two aspects of the initial allocation mechanism of carbon emission rights and the trading mechanism of the secondary market.Firstly,based on the trading mechanism of carbon trading primary market,based on Multi-agent theory,the national carbon trading market simulation model is constructed.The model can simulate the behaviors of carbon rights distribution from the micro-individuals,so as to more accurately reflect the carbon market.At the same time,from the perspective of cost effectiveness,the marginal abatement cost is used as the basis for analyzing the trading mechanism of the primary trading market of carbon trading.The choice of free allocation method,the choice of paid distribution mode and the proportion of paid unpaid quota allocation in initial quota allocation are studied.Secondly,starting from the secondary market trading mechanism,the Multi-agent theory is applied to simulate the specific trading behavior of enterprises participating in the secondary market.This paper mainly considers two kinds of trading methods:spot trading and listing trading.The listed trading is divided into two types:bidding trading and pricing trading.It mainly studies the market performance and market efficiency of different trading mechanisms in the secondary market of carbon trading.Based on the above two tasks,the main conclusions are as follows:(1)For different free quota allocation methods,it is recommended to adopt an output-based approach when R>0.35 in 2020,R>0.15 in 2025,and R>0.05 in 2030.Otherwise,using an emissions-based approach.(2)In the auction mode,if the emission reduction target is relatively high(such as R>0.27),use differential price auction,otherwise it is recommended to use uniform price auction.(3)For the proportion of auctions in quota allocation,when the emission reduction target is lower than 40%in 2020,lower than 17.62%in 2025,and lower than 4%in 2030,the distribution ratio is controlled to a low level(about 10%),on the contrary,the allocation ratio is controlled to a high degree(about 90%).(4)In the secondary market,spot trading has the highest market activity and market efficiency,followed by bidding transactions,and the pricing trading market is sluggish.(5)According to our research,it is suggested that in the primary market,free distribution is the main factor to mobilize the enthusiasm of enterprises to participate in the carbon market.After the market is stable and orderly,it is supplemented by the paid distribution method.In the secondary market,the spot trading with the highest activity and market efficiency is selected as the main trading method to maintain the market operation.At the same time,supplemented by pricing transactions and bidding transactions as other options for companies,the company chooses to diversify.