Comprehensive Evaluation And Simulation Prediction Of Environmental Carrying Capacity Of Mature Coal Cities

Coal is the major raw material for production and the primary energy resource of China.In the quantity of production and consumption of primary energy,the proportion of coal is more than 60%.Therefore,coal cities have become the critical areas of energy security.Although the problem of environmental pollution and destruction in most coal cities has been partly solved now,the overall state of environment is still in a bad station.The unsustainable development mode of these cities has not fundamentally changed.As the core areas of coal resource supply,most mature coal cities face the outstanding contradiction between social and economic development and resource and environment protection,as well as lots of resistance in development.This paper takes mature coal cities in China as the research object.With the basis of sustainable development theory,system theory,etc.,and the purpose of improving environmental carrying capacity,this study calculates the level of environmental carrying capacity quantificationally from multiple dimensions by various methods.Then the interaction relationship between subsystems is clarified,and the main reasons leading to the difference of environmental carrying capacity are analyzed.The dynamic simulation and prediction of environmental carrying capacity is also carried out.The research contents are as follows:Firstly,the whole situation of case cities is investigated from the perspective of resources,environment,society and economy.Then,the material flow analysis method is selected to analyze the characteristics of material flow from aspects of total resource usage,resource consumption intensity,and the total amount of material output into environment.It lays the foundation for the evaluation of environmental carrying capacity.Secondly,combined with the results of material flow analysis,the PSR framework,statistics of literature index frequency and relevant standards,the comprehensive evaluation system of environmental carrying capacity is constructed.Based on panel data from 2010 to 2019,the normal cloud model is used to measure the sequential variation of environmental carrying capacity,and to analyze the interaction between subsystems.Then BP-DEMATEL model is choosed to analyze the interaction mechanism of each element,and to explore the primary causes leading to the difference in the level of environmental carrying capacity.Thirdly,the study clarifies the relationship between elements and subsystems and builds a system dynamics model.Combining the method of orthogonal test,the environmental carrying capacity levels under different scenarios are simulated.Fourthly,based on the above analysis,targeted countermeasures are proposed for the problems of the case cities.The results show that:(1)The emission of pollutants in these cities decreases,but the water resource is short,the air quality is poor,the intensity of resource consumption is high,the utilization degree of industrial solid waste is low,and the quantity of domestic waste increases rapidly.The economic level is low,and the degree of economic development depends on coal industry is relatively high.(2)The level of environmental carrying capacity of most cities has increased significantly.The carrying capacity of resource and environment system is higher than that of social and economic system.“the proportion of environmental protection expenditure in GDP”,“comprehensive utilization rate of industrial solid waste”,“emission intensity of air pollutants”are the main driving factors.“the proportion of subsidence area”,“urbanization rate”are the main characteristic factors.(3)The results of simulation and prediction show that the environmental carrying capacity level of the case city will rise,and it will reach the highest level in scheme 12.The factors that significantly affect the results of simulation and prediction are“total GDP”,“secondary output value”,“environmental protection expenditure”and“raw coal output”.This study has theoretical significance for further enriching the research field of carrying capacity evaluation.It also has practical significance to realize the green and sustainable development of mature coal cities.Figure 48 Table 48 Reference 249...