| Based on the current situation of tight supply of energy resources around the world,as well as the characteristics of regional strongness and high concentration of wind power and solar power generation in China,this paper reviews and summarizes the relevant theoretical viewpoints,introduces the research status of wind-photovoltaic-energy storage(wind-PV-ES)hybrid power generation mode,load forecasting method and multi-objective decision theory.This paper proposes a multi-module wind power forecasting method for wind-PV-ES,a technical method for wind-PV-ES hybrid power generation system dispatch management,and a method for wind-PV-ES hybrid power generation system comprehensive benefit evaluation.In this paper,the optimal strategy of technical and economic benefits is sought for the development of wind-PV-ES hybrid power generation model.The main achievements and innovations of this paper are as follows:(1)A wind power output prediction model based on mode decomposition(EMD)and particle swarm optimization support vector machine(PSO-SVM)is established.The output of wind power is a non-stationary time series.The traditional regression algorithm,neural network and other prediction models are often not accurate.For this non-linear and non-stationary time series,firstly,the output power of wind turbines is decomposed into multiple time series with different scales by empirical mode decomposition(EMD);then,support vector machine(SVM)is used to predict each group of signals.(2)A combined forecasting method of photovoltaic output power based on clustering analysis and entropy weight forecasting model is established.For photovoltaic power generation,because its output power is a non-linear time series,its random fluctuation is strong,and has obvious regularity of daily repetition.In view of this feature,this paper proposes a method of fuzzy clustering to cluster the output power of photovoltaic power generation matrix on a daily basis and to obtain a set of samples of similar days.Then,the forecasting method based on the combination forecasting model of entropy weight is used to train each group of similar days.This prediction method is based on accurate daily clustering of output power of photovoltaic power generation matrix.It can better capture the regular characteristics of output power under different climatic conditions and reduce the structural risk of the prediction model.(3)Multi-objective tracking plan output scheduling model of wind-PV-ES hybrid power generation system is established.Due to the strong randomness and fuzziness of wind and PV output,the optimization of scheduling in wind-PV-ES hybrid power generation system is a kind of uncertain planning.Starting from two aspects of operation objective and economy,this paper establishes a multi-objective energy storage scheduling model based on uncertain programming for wind-PV-ES hybrid power generation,which is solved by Monte Carlo simulation and grey particle swarm optimization.Finally,the national wind-PV-ES hybrid power generation project demonstration project is selected as the analysis object,and the energy storage tracking plan output scheduling model and the multi-objective tracking plan output scheduling model considering economy are established respectively.In the single-objective dispatching model,a control strategy of energy storage system including charge and discharge power control coefficient and wind-PV predictive state control coefficient is proposed.The results show that by changing the charge and discharge control coefficient of energy storage system,not only the requirement for energy storage system can be reduced,but also the error can be controlled within the qualified range.In the multi-objective scheduling model,by comparing the results of single-objective decision-making and multi-objective decision-making,it can be found that the multi-objective optimal scheduling model can reduce economic costs and maximize economic benefits on the basis of maximizing the output of the plan.(4)A comprehensive benefit evaluation model of wind-PV-ES hybrid power generation based on multi-dimensional benefits is established.Firstly,according to the principle of index construction,multi-dimensional benefit index identification is carried out,and the identification direction of demonstration benefit,grid benefit,economic benefit and social benefit is determined.A multi-dimensional and multi-level comprehensive benefit evaluation system of wind-PV-ES hybrid power generation is constructed.Finally,combined with the comprehensive benefit evaluation model based on multi-dimensional benefits proposed in this paper,using the data of Zhangbei National Storage and Transportation Demonstration Project,the calculation work is carried out from two aspects of actual data and planning data.The calculation results show that the comprehensive benefit of Zhangbei National Storage and Transportation Co-generation has reached the planned expected level,and the overall level is good.With the construction of the second phase of Zhangbei National Storage and Transportation Demonstration Project,the wind-PV-ES hybrid power generation system will be further developed.While continuously improving the economy,the system will be more friendly,and the proportion of new energy generation energy will be continuously promoted,so as to promote the continuous optimization and development of energy structure.This paper can be used as a reference for the scheduling management of wind-PV-ES hybrid power generation dispatching.(5)Research on the operation management strategy and industrial development policy recommendations of the wind-PV-ES hybrid power generation system.This paper introduces the operation and management strategies from the perspective of grid-connected and island operation of the wind-PV-ES hybrid power generation system,analyzes the existing problems of the of the wind-PV-ES hybrid power generation system industry,and proposes the typical operation mode of wind-solar storage hybrid systems under the ubiquitous electric power internet of things.Finally,combined with industry and policy requirements,the paper puts forward relevant policy recommendations for the future development of the wind-solar storage hybrid system. |
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