Synergic Model Of Electricity Low-carbon Policies In China

To adjust energy consumption structure,and promote energy system sustainable development,advancing renewable energy construction and consumption have become focuses.Under the background,a series of electricity low-carbon polices has been issued,such as benchmark feed-in tariff,carbon emissions trading mechanism,renewable energy subsidy policy,renewable energy quota system,etc.However,due to the differences of policy issuing departments,specific objectives,and implementation objects,the synergic degree among electricity low-carbon policies is insufficient,which hinders renewable energy consumption and brings financial pressure for Chinese government.Aiming to above problems,taking promoting renewable energy consumption as core,this paper designs synergic models of electricity low-carbon policies under different scenarios,including carbon emission trading mechanism,carbon tax policy,renewable energy subsidy policy and renewable energy power quota system.Moreover,benefit evaluation models of each subject,and optimization method of synergic models among different electricity low-carbon policies are constructed.These studies can provide supports for electricity energy policies development.The specific research contents are as follows:(1)This paper analyzes the framework and types of China’s electricity low-carbon policies,and clarifies typical electricity low-carbon policies situation and the synergic problems among different electricity low-carbon policies.Two parts consist of this section:firstly,based on the concept of electricity low-carbon policy,these policies are divided to authorized legislation,strategic planning,finance,regulatory tools,demonstration,ect,through studying the typical electricity low-carbon policy from 2005 to 2020 in China.Secondly,from the perspective of the government,according to the study path from supply side to supply-demand policy synergy,carbon emissions trading mechanism,carbon tax policy,renewable energy subsidy policy and renewable energy quota system are chosen as typical policies.Then the development process and existing synergic problems among above policies is studied.(2)The carbon price prediction is taken as the entry point of electricity low-carbon policies synergic model from the angle of government.considering the implementation experience and development potential of China’s carbon emission trading.It lays a good foundation for the low carbon electricity synergic model.The contents of this section are made up of three sub-sections.Firstly,summing up and screening the key influencing factors of carbon price in carbon emission trading.Secondly,seven carbon price prediction models are established,including the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross(CIR)model without including factor,the single factor CIR model,the multi factor CIR model,the fixed standard deviation Vasicek model,the single factor Vasicek model,the multi factor Vasicek model,and the jump diffusion model are constructed.Finally,the optimization model for above carbon price prediction is established considering the carbon price prediction error and its’ error distribution.(3)From the angle of government,the synergic models of carbon emissions trading mechanism and carbon tax policy are established aiming to advance renewable energy consumption under the constraints of subjects’ behaviors,subjects’fairness,and the relationship between regulation means and carbon price.Then the synergic model of carbon emissions trading mechanism and carbon tax policy are put forward taking as the adjusting methods of carbon quantity quota,carbon tax level.Moreover,considering the fluctuation of electricity feed-in tariff under the electricity market transaction,the economic benefit evaluation models are constructed based on fuzzy option model.Finally,an optimization model is established adding the economic benefits and electricity system physical conditions into constraint conditions,the promoting renewable energy consumption as goal.(4)This section consists of four parts:firstly,a dynamic renewable energy subsidy model considering diversified response behavior is established to promote renewable energy consumption.Secondly,from the angle of government,to advance the renewable energy consumption,synergic models among carbon emissions trading mechanism,carbon tax policy,and renewable energy subsidy policy is constructed under the constraints of subjects’ behaviors,subjects’ fairness,the relationship between regulation means and carbon price,and renewable energy subsidy.Then,there are two synergic models among carbon emssions trading mechanism,carbon tax policy,and renewable energy subsidy policy,namely the linkage synergic model of carbon price,carbon tax,and renewable energy subsidy based on benchmark internal rate of return;and linkage synergic model carbon price,carbon tax,and renewable energy subsidy based on the equal competitiveness,In synergic models,the adjusting methods are carbon quantity quota,carbon tax level,renewable energy subsidy,and allowable renewable energy output/load gaps.Thirdly.a benefits evaluation model is constructed.Finally,an optimization model for synergic model is constructed adding the economic,financial pressure of government subsidies,electricity system physical conditions into constraint conditions,aiming to promote renewable energy consumption.(5)Based on the influence of carbon emissions trading mechanism,carbon tax policy,renewable energy subsidy policy and renewable energy quota system on subjects’ behavior,the renewable energy quota system is introduced into the synergic model among carbon emission trading mechanism,carbon tax policy and renewable energy subsidy policy.It expands supply side policy synergy to supply-demand.Moreover,a multiple electricity low-carbon policies synergic model is established taking carbon quantity quota,carbon tax level,renewable energy subsidy,and responsibility of renewable energy consumption as the government’s adjusting methods.Finally,an optimization model for above synergic model is constructed,which takes the economic benefits,the financial pressure of government subsidies,the behavior of the main body under renewable energy quota system,and electricity system physical conditions as the constraints,aiming to promote renewable energy consumption.According to the idea of synergic models construction from supply side to supply-demand side,the main innovation of this paper is building a carbon emissions trading mechanism and carbon tax policy synergic model based on multi factor linkage,establishing a synergic model among carbon emissions trading mechanism,carbon tax policy,renewable energy subsidy policy and renewable energy quota system considering the subjects’ behaviors under low carbon electricity policies.These models are benefited to promote renewable energy consumption,which provides reference for the synergic development of electricity low-carbon policies.