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Modeling Influence Factors And Dynamic Strategies For Renewable Energy Development In South Asia

Posted on:2021-08-28Degree:DoctorType:Dissertation
Institution:UniversityCandidate:Muhammad IrfanFull Text:PDF
GTID:1482306305961619Subject:Management Science and Engineering
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
South Asia1 is facing severe energy-related problems,including the deficiency of fossil fuel resources,greenhouse gas emissions,and an increase in power demand and supply gap.The energy needs of the region have increased many folds in recent years due to improved lifestyle,ever-increasing population,and economic development.The energy mix of South Asia is mainly dependent on fossil fuels,which are the primary sources of carbon emissions.These conventional sources not only costly but at the same time,threatening the environment.The development of alternative and renewable energy sources is very crucial to overcome these problems.Therefore,South Asian governments are looking for these renewable energy sources.This dissertation systematically examines the renewable energy development in South Asia relative to different driving and inhibiting factors,i.e.,consumer’s attitude,subjective norms,perceived behavioral control,belief about renewable energy cost,environmental concern,perception about neighbor’s participation,and belief about renewable energy benefits.For this purpose,the association and influencing mechanisms between renewable energy development and the impelling and constraining factors are analyzed.This dissertation contributed to the current literature by analyzing the influencing factors that affect consumers’intentions and their willingness to pay for renewable energy.Second,the theory of planned behavior is expanded by introducing two novel variables i.e.,environmental concern,and belief about renewable energy costs.The state-of-the-art structural equation modeling(SEM)technique was utilized for data analysis purposes.Third,the diamond model is extended in this dissertation to recognize and scrutinize the critical factors that are significantly affecting the development and competitiveness of the wind power industry.The emphasis has been given to investigate how the competitiveness and development of the Indian wind industry have been affected by major factors in this model.Fourth,this dissertation investigates the energy dynamics of Pakistan.The challenges over the whole biomass energy spectrum are uncovered and dynamic strategies for biomass energy development in the country have been proposed.Fifth,the dissertation evaluates the potential of utilizing an off-grid solar PV system for rural electrification by taking Pakistan as a case study.Research findings reveal that there is high public support for renewable energy utilization.The majority of the people exhibit positive willingness to pay for renewable energy and this positive intention increases with residents’ income,education,awareness of renewable energy,and perception about neighbor’s participation.Respondents’ age and the belief about the renewable energy consumption cost have the opposite effect,as willingness to pay decreases with individuals’ age and the belief that the utilization of renewable energy produces extra costs.Young and educated people tend to have more willingness to pay for renewable energy,more concerned about the environment and believe that renewable energy consumption produces extra costs.Therefore,implications for policymakers are to make strategies by keeping in mind young and educated people to win their support.On the contrary,environmental concern,and belief about renewable energy benefits found to have insignificant effects on consumers’willingness to pay for renewable energy.The analysis of the Diamond model reveals that the Indian wind industry has high prospects in the future.However,the industry is confronting with several challenges,as the initial costs are too high to start a new wind project,wind turbines are old fashioned,the country is still dependent on foreign technology,wind resources have been distributed unevenly in the country,and the lack of supporting financial mechanisms.Besides,the wind power industry’ chain is developed in the study and wind energy market players are identified which can improve the value chain of the industry.The current situation and future projections of electricity generation by using biomass energy resources are unearthed in this dissertation as well.Research outcomes reveal that abundant biomass resources include fuelwood,municipal solid waste,agricultural residues,and animal dung.If utilized properly the region can take benefit from these sources.Different governments of the region have set clear targets to incorporate renewable energy into their respective countries.As envisaged by the Pakistani government,biomass energy could assist in realizing the target of increasing the renewable energy share in the total energy mix of the country from 1.1%to 5%by 2030.However,the sector is confronted with several challenges.Some of these challenges related to the site,region,and technology,while some are related to policy structure,financing mechanism,market situation,and regulatory framework.An enormous solar potential exists in the region,as Sindh,Baluchistan and some southern parts of Pakistan have abundant solar energy potential.These areas receive 2 MWh/m2 solar irradiation and 3000 h of sunshine per year,which are perfect to invest in solar energy to utilize its true potential.The average global insolation is 19-20 MJ/m2 per day and the annual mean sunshine duration is 8-8.5 h,which is perfect for the installation of solar PV and other solar energy-related projects.The average temperature of the country is Celsius 26°-28°.Meanwhile,the daily average solar power potential is 5.3 kWh/m2.The country has an overall 1.600,000 MW solar power potential.If solar PV panels were installed only on a 100 Km area of Pakistan with 14%efficiency,it could generate 30 million tons of oil equivalent(MTOE)energy in the country.In addition,suitable tilt angles have been calculated to increase the energy output of solar PV in the respective regions.Furthermore,this study has undertaken the economic viability for solar PV systems,and it was found that electricity generation from the solar PV costs Pakistani rupees(PKR)7.15 per kWh and is much cheaper than conventional electricity,which costs PKR 20.7 per kWh.Besides,the system can reduce carbon emissions considerably.If 100%of the unelectrified households adopt solar PV system,then 617,020 metric tons of CO2 could be mitigated annually.The neighboring countries i.e.,Bangladesh and India have also successfully implemented rural electrification programs and share key geographic,social and economic similarities with Pakistan.Although,there is a huge potential for solar energy in the region,there are certain barriers that must be overcome to utilize this technology efficiently and effectively.Finally,important policy recommendations have been proposed for institutions and governments to overcome these barriers and utilize maximum renewable energy in the region.This study will serve as a guide for governments and stakeholders by understanding the dynamic relationships among all the factors influencing the acceptance of renewable energy in South Asia.
Keywords/Search Tags:Consumers’ intention, willingness to pay for renewable energy, diamond model, greenhouse gas emissions, CO2 mitigation, off-grid solar PV system, economic feasibility, South Asia
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