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Techno-Economic Analysis,Financing Aspect And Social Acceptance Of Renewable Energy Technologies ——Evidence From Pakistan

Posted on:2022-11-28Degree:DoctorType:Dissertation
Institution:UniversityCandidate:Muhammad AhmarFull Text:PDF
GTID:1482306752988619Subject:FINANCE
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
An increasing acknowledgment which gains the attention of environmental preservation and economic development alliance via implementing sustainable economic development strategies– based on technological innovation and resource efficiency – can effectively improve the standards of living,expand businesses,occupations,and incomes.The process of developing a sustainable economy incorporates an effective deployment of financing provisions and astute strategies that can significantly influence the innovation,productivity,and management in the use and reuse of all natural/human resources,specifically in promoting renewable energy technologies that can lead to widespread economic growth.The recent rapid change in climate and energy sanctuary has pushed both developed and developing countries to invent and adopt new technologies in the energy sector,which is crucial and paramount for the advancement of an economy in the current era,where most developing countries are energy deficient.Seeking the scope,motivation,and integrating further empirical findings in this area,the thesis sheds light on different aspects of application of renewable energy technology(RET)systems to improve livelihood and its effect on household choices.More specifically,this thesis lies under the ambit of development finance,sustainable finance,and public finance and contributes to the existing literature in two major ways:(i)technical viability and financial feasibility of different hybrid renewable energy-based projects and systems and(ii)economics of determinants for social acceptance of renewable energy technology.In doing that,we first collect real-time primary data of electricity flow,grid-connection and grid-outage,demographic,socio-economic,environmental,institutional,and infrastructural variables and secondary data of inflation rate,discount rate,exchange rate,subsidies,and rebates on RET products,human population,livestock population,among other macro-and micro-economic variables in the context of Pakistan.We choose Pakistan as a case study to execute our idea because the energy crisis in Pakistan as well as locally available energy sources in the country are well documented in the literature;however,untapped to date.Thus,this thesis takes the initiative to uncover not only the potential of renewable energy generation in Pakistan,but also the social acceptance of modern and clean energy choices at household level.The thesis then opts a step-wise approach,it starts with techno-financial evaluations of different energy systems to understand whether the electricity crisis can be reduced using locally available renewable energy sources,specifically solar photovoltaic(PV),and biogas systems,without bearing additional cost.The thesis then compares the technical and financial outcomes with alternative scenarios and provides novel findings on the applicability of such electricity generation potential for domestic households(to consume)and domestic/foreign investors(to take up on such projects).Finally,the thesis conducts social surveys,interviews,meetings,and questionnaires and examines household energy choices and energy-mix in Pakistan,specifically in the rural areas.This thesis includes four comprehensive studies on the abovementioned theme,where the first study focuses on techno-financial evaluations and the following three studies focus on the determinants of adoption,social acceptance,and household energy choice.Study-wise abstracts are presented below.The first findings aim to develop an efficient energy system design framework and investigate the techno-economic feasibility of potential hybrid energy systems(HES)for rural electrification of a village in the district Dera Ismail Khan,Pakistan.At first,a comprehensive resource assessment is carried out.Subsequently,system size optimization and techno-economic viability were conducted using a standard software tool HOMER PRO to fulfill the peak-load demand.Due to the deficiency of wind power and biomass resources at the targeted site,the results indicate that a community power system based on solar PV as a primary energy source,batteries as a storage,diesel generator as a backup,and a time-constrained availability of national grid is the most feasible solution.Sensitivity analysis using macro-economic variables and derating factor of PV has been opted to ensure robustness and commercial applicability of the proposed HES.The study finds that Levelized cost of electricity(LCOE)in grid-integrated systems(0.072$/k Wh and 0.078$/k Wh)is economical than the off-grid systems(0.145$/k Wh and 0.167$/k Wh).The obtained results indicate commercial efficacy of the grid-integrated configurations,where LCOE is lower than the existing government tariff.Most importantly,this hybrid energy system is capable of providing a 24/7 continuous electricity to the site under consideration.In the second part,the following three studies explore the behavioral and development economics aspect and cover social acceptance of renewable energy technologies(i)determinants of adoption and the type of solar technology adopted,(ii)households’ energy choices,and(iii)economics of determinants for biogas adoption and willingness to adopt biogas technology in the wake of socio-demographic,environmental,institutional and infrastructural attributes of the households.Phase one of the second part illustrates that the electricity crisis in Pakistan is triggering grid power outage(load shedding)for many decades,which has not only affected the commercial and industrial sectors but also the domestic sector,specifically the livelihood of rural areas of the country.However,the extant literature advocates that renewable energy technologies,such as solar photovoltaic(PV)can be the remedy.Given the abundantly availability of solar energy in Pakistan that can be converted into electrical energy using solar photovoltaic(PV)systems,this study examines the determinants of solar PV adoption in rural areas of Pakistan.Our preliminary investigations – using government/official publications – indicate that despite the huge potential of solar energy in Pakistan,the usage of solar PV at household level in rural areas is still untapped,which makes this research agenda more appealing and provocative.In doing so,this study first conducts surveys,face-to-face comprehensive interviews,and questionnaires in four different districts of Pakistan and then implements a stepwise two-stage novel approach on a sample of1140 selected rural households.The first stage focuses on the determinants of solar PV adoption,whereas the second stage focuses on the determinants of the type of solar PV adopted.Using logistic regression,this study finds that age,education,children-in-school,income-level,accessto-credit,gender(female),and price of solar-PV system are the factors significantly affecting the solar-PV adoption.In the second stage,we employ a multivariate probit model and find that among these significant factors,the former five are significantly positive for the uptake of solar home-system,whereas the latter two are significant for both solar shed-lighting and solar panelkit systems.In addition to these factors,landholding,and access-to-road are significant for solar home-system,whereas household size,distance-to-market,and access-to-grid-electricity are significant for both solar shed-lighting and solar panel-kit systems.Since burning fossil fuels and solid biomass fuels for domestic energy needs are common in rural areas globally that cause carbon emissions and several severe health issues,the findings of this study are useful in many ways.In specific,we contribute to the literature examining the determinants of renewable energy technologies in rural communities in developing countries.Phase two of the second part amid the shortage of modern grid-connected commercial electricity in Pakistan,search for alternative energy sources has been consistently increasing.Besides meeting 100% electricity demand,shifting and increasing to renewable based energy is another challenge for developing nations.Since the metropolitan cities are favored due to their industrial needs and economic importance,rural areas face severe grid outage up to 20 hours a day in many remote areas of Pakistan.Taking up on the biogas energy,which is considered the most suitable energy source for rural communities,is consistently being determined as a remedy to mitigate the energy deficiency in the country,in specific,rural areas.This study first employs a logistic regression and examines 15 demographic,social,economic,environmental,institutional,and infrastructural attributes pinpoint the determinants of biogas adoption decisions in central regions of Pakistan.Thereafter,this study examines factors influencing the likelihood of households’ willingness to adopt biogas technology in near future,using the probit model.The major findings of the study show that demographic,socio-economic,and environmental attributes are the key factors affecting determinants for biogas adoption(i.e.,user Vs non-user analysis),whereas,the role of infrastructural factors along with other outlined factors is significant for willingness to adopt biogas(i.e.,the agreement-to-adopt Vs disagreement-to-adopt analysis)only.Notably,this study did not find any biogas diffusion case in the sample districts of Pakistan.Moreover,the role of institutional factors is insignificant across all the models we test.Since there was no credit facility available to households for such energy projects,biogas adoption decision was found more pronounced among financially stable households.However,the empirical results(using propensity score matching mahalanobis distance matching)and discussion with participants reveal that households who are aware of the benefits of using biogas to(a)mitigate energy needs and(b)improve financial condition are willing to adopt biogas technology now,irrespective of their current financial situation,where women are found more interested in biogas technology than their male counterparts.Finally,after comprehensively examining the available options and ground realities,this study suggests implementing a biogas promotion program and integrating it with sugar mills(for bagasse),irrigation and horticulture offices(for crop residuals and water),and water and power development authority(WAPDA)could be a viable policy for the uptake and sustainability of biogas energy sector in Pakistan.Phase three of the second part portrays that in the wake of the United Nation’s Sustainable Development Goals—zero hunger and affordable modern/clean energy for all—many developing countries have taken serious steps in recent years to increase clean energy access for the rural population.The government of Pakistan has similarly made numerous efforts to promote the use of clean energy sources in the rural areas of the country.Therefore,this study examines rural households’ energy choices for cooking and lighting in Pakistan.In doing so,a comprehensive dataset is collected from three different districts of Pakistan between 2020 and 2021,and multivariate probit(MVP)model and Chi-square tests are employed.The Chi-square results indicate that the age,education level,and occupation of the household-head;household size and income;distance to market and wood source;and biogas system ownership are the significant factors affecting cooking choices.The MVP results show that an increase in education level,school-going children,access to credit facilities,and gender(female)are the key positive factors,whereas an increase in the distance to nearest market/road,household size,and age are the factors that negatively affect the likelihood of using clean energy sources for lighting.While comparing the propensity to use modern/clean energy fuels across the three districts,infrastructural development and literacy rate were found to be crucial factors.
Keywords/Search Tags:Techno-economic assessment, Determents of adoption, Willingness to pay, Regression analysis, Renewable energy technology
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