Research On Coordinated Operation Mechanism And Optimization Model Of Coal-Electricity Supply Chain

Coal and electricity are important basic energy industries in the development of the national economy.Both the national economy and social life are inseparable from the coordinated operation of coal and electricity.The endowment characteristics of China's mineral resources determine the pattern of energy development with coal and electricity as the core.Over the past 70 years,China's coal and electricity industries have developed rapidly,but environmental pollution,overcapacity,poor vertical coordination,and high medium and long-term contract default rates have caused the contradictions between coal and electricity.Coordinated operation has become a new focus of social attention.In 2020,China will implement carbon emission rights trading mechanism and renewable energy power consumption guarantee mechanism,which will expose coal-electricity supply chain related enterprises to the risk of being replaced and increasing costs.At the same time,in the past years,in terms of supply-side reforms,China has successively introduced relevant systems such as the excessive production capacity reduction policy,coal-electricity joint venture policy,and medium and long-term contracts,which brings new opportunities and risks.It is necessary to consider the impact of these policies on the coordinated operation of the coal-electricity supply chain to provide important theoretical value and practical significance for improving the coordinated operation of coal-electricity supply chain.Therefore,in this paper,the coordinated operation of coal-electricity supply chain is taken as the research object,and according to the logical chain of "discovering problems-constructing models-analysis of examples",the coal-electricity supply chain under the low-carbon policy,the excessive production capacity reduction policy and the coal-power joint venture policy are respectively addressed as chain coordination operation.Based on financial derivatives of coal-electricity supply chain medium and long-term contracts performance research,the causes of periodic conflicts between coal and electricity are analyzed,and the coal-electricity supply chain coordination operation mechanism and optimization model are proposed.The main research contents are as follows.(1)The research results and theories of the coordinated operation mechanism and optimization of coal-electricity supply chain are sorted out,and the feasibility and necessity of the thesis research is analyzed.First,the research status at home and abroad are summarized from three aspects,the coordinated operation mechanism,the related policies and the optimization of medium and long-term contracts.Then,the policies and practices for the coordinated operation of domestic coal and electricity are considered,summarizing the policies and practices for the coordinated operation of coal and electricity in developed countries such as South Africa,United States,United Kingdom,Japan,Australia,and Germany.The current situation confirms the corresponding empirical enlightenment.Finally,based on the current situation of coal and electricity,coal import and export,coal-fired power generation pollution,periodic conflicts of coal-fired power and new energy substitution,the problems in the coordinated operation of coal-electricity supply chain are proposed.(2)A coordinated operation model of coal-electricity supply chain under low-carbon policy is constructed.First,considering the restrictions of renewable energy electricity consumption and carbon emission allowance quotas,the impacts of renewable energy and carbon emission rights-related parameters on the profits of the coal-electricity supply chain enterprises under non-cooperation and cooperation scenarios are analyzed.Secondly,under the renewable energy power consumption guarantee mechanism,the power users in the green power certificate trading market used the cash value model to analyze the highest and lowest market prices of photovoltaic green electricity certificates and wind power green electricity certificates.At the same time,a set of one-to-many market trading mechanism based on preferential prices is proposed,and the cost reduction recommendations for power users to purchase green electricity certificates is established to complete renewable energy electricity consumption.(3)A coordinated operation model of coal-electricity supply chain under the excessive production capacity reduction policy is constructed.First,considering the impact of reduce excessive production capacity indicators and capacity subsidies on market prices,the coal market is taken as an example.A number of market competition models are constructed to simulate and analyze the coal market competitiveness.Secondly,a model for coordinated reduce excessive production capacity of coal-electricity supply chain is constructed.By setting multiple parameters,a mathematical model is used to analyze the impact on the excessive production capacity reduction rate when different parameter changes,and the simulation analysis is conducted.(4)A coordinated operation model of coal-electricity supply chain under the coal-electricity joint venture policy is constructed.First of all,a vertical decision-making model of the coal-electricity supply chain is proposed.Taking a complex coal-electricity supply chain with multiple coal production enterprises,multiple coal-fired power generation enterprises,and multiple coal-electricity joint ventures as an example,the market conditions for coal-electricity joint ventures are analyzed.Secondly,a vertical integration effect model of coal-electricity supply chain is built.Taking a coal supply chain as example,which contains a coal production enterprise,a coal transportation enterprise and a coal-fired power generation enterprise,the vertical integration decision model and vertical independent decision model are used to calculate to the income improvement.The Rubinstein bargaining model is introduced to allocate the total income.Then,the vertical integration model for the coal-electricity supply chain is established,and the strategic choices of local governments and energy companies when implementing vertical integration projects are analyzed.The changes of different initial conditions and different parameter conditions on local governments and energy companies based on evolutionary game model are discussed.At last,the influence of decision-making is simulated and analyzed with examples.(5)An optimized model of coal-electricity medium and long-term contract model is proposed.First of all,the development of medium-and long-term contracts for coal and electricity is studied.Then,the influencing factors of medium and long-term coal contracts are analyzed based on grounded theory,and the influencing factors are analyzed through an analytical structural model.The reasonable price range of medium and long-term contracts of coal and electricity is analyzed.Secondly,the stability of medium and long-term coal contracts and the performance intervals are analyzed,and the effects of different parameters on the stability of medium and long-term coal contracts are discussed.Using the option theory,three option models for call options,put options,and two-way options are set up to optimize the medium and long-term coal contract modes.Finally,the stability of the medium and long-term electricity contracts and performance intervals,and the effects of different parameters on the stability of medium and long-term electricity contracts are analyzed.Based on the coal-electricity floating mechanism,a government-authorized contracts for difference are set up for medium and long-term electricity contracts mode optimization.Through the above research,this paper draws the following conclusions.1)The coordinated operation mechanism of coal-electricity supply chain under the low-carbon policy can be used for related enterprises who are limited by renewable energy power consumption and carbon emission quotas to provide scientific quantitative decision-making tools.2)The coordinated operation mechanism model for coal power supply chain under the excessive production capacity reduction policy can provide the government with decision supports for the policy effectiveness evaluation.3)The coordinated operation model of the coal-electricity supply chain under the coal-electricity joint venture policy can provide supports for the government and enterprises to make coal-electricity joint venture decisions.4)The medium and long-term contract optimization model can provide a new type of contract guarantee method for the medium and long-term contracts.