| New energy power generation represented by wind power is the most realistic strategic choice to achieve the goal of "carbon peak,carbon neutral".Under the goal of "carbon peaking,carbon neutralization",the new installed capacity of wind power will continue to increase,and the scale of wind power integration will increase day by day.However,due to the randomness,volatility and reserve peak shaving characteristics of wind power,large-scale wind power integration will make China face huge pressure of wind power consumption.With the development of smart grid,flexible resources such as demand response,energy storage system and distributed controllable generation become important means to deal with system uncertainty.With the rapid development and application of ultra high voltage transmission technology,the structure of transmission network has undergone great changes.At the same time,multi region coordinated dispatching has become an effective measure to absorb wind power.The rapid increase of wind power generation capacity and the increasingly complex structure of power system have brought more uncertain factors to the operation of power system,brought new challenges to the stable operation of power system,and increased the difficulty and risk of operation regulation of power system generation,transmission and distribution.Power system adequacy optimization decision-making is the premise and measure to ensure the safe and reliable operation of power system in the presence of a large number of uncertain factors.However,the adequacy decision-making method based on the deterministic methods can not take into account the uncertain factors of the system,and it is difficult to meet the needs of power system operation and decision-making.Therefore,considering the uncertainty of generation,transmission and distribution,it is of great theoretical significance and practical value to study the optimization and decision-making method of generation,transmission and distribution system adequacy considering large-scale wind power consumption.The main contents of this paper are as follows(1)Aiming at the adequacy evaluation of power generation system,a generation adequacy assessment model based on demand response is proposed,which can consider the impact of user's willingness to participate in demand response and its behavior uncertainty on generation adequacy of large-scale wind power grid connected system.Firstly,considering the bounded rationality of users as demand response participants,in order to describe users'subjective risk preference,the prospect theory value function in behavioral finance is used to describe users' subjective risk attitude,and the calculation formula of users' subjective utility value in demand response is given,secondly.considering that the change of demand response to customers'energy use perception will affect the degree and strategy of u customers'participation in demand response projects in the future,according to customers' subjective utility value,an variant Roth Erev algorithm is proposed to describe customers' demand response potential and participation behavior,and a measurement method of system demand response available capacity is given;then,the available capacity of demand response is introduced into the operation constraints,and the minimum operation cost is taken as the objective function to build the demand response scheduling model.Finally,based on the demand response available capacity measurement and demand response scheduling model,the classical generation adequacy evaluation method based on state duration simulation is extended,and a generation adequacy evaluation method considering large-scale wind power consumption and demand response is proposed.The feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method are verified by an example.(2)Aiming at the generation adequacy optimization problem,an improved Latin hypercube sampling method based on Sobol sequence is proposed to improve the generation efficiency of random scenarios considering the correlation of wind power output;based on glue VaR,the available generation capacity shortage index is proposed,and then the risk optimization model of generation adequacy of power system with wind large-scale wind power is constructed based on Glue-VaR,Firstly,in order to consider the correlation of wind farm actual output,D-vine copula is proposed to describe the correlation of wind speed forecast error;secondly,in order to overcome the shortcomings of poor uniformity of the classical simple random sampling method and the unexpected correlation of the D-vine copula samples,the Sobol sequence is introduced into the Latin hypercube sampling framework,and a Sobol augmented Latin hypercube sampling method is proposed;then,considering the risk preference of different power system participants,the available generation capacity shortage index based on Glue-VaR is proposed to evaluate generation adequacy;Considering operation cost and generation adequacy risk,a multi-objective stochastic day ahead adequacy optimization model is established;finally,the Pareto front is obtained based on the ?-constraint method.and the entropy weight-weighted aggregation sum and product assessment method is proposed to find the ideal effective solution of the adequacy optimization model.The feasibility of the proposed model and the effectiveness of the method are verified through the analysis of an example.(3)Aiming at the decision-making problem of available transmission capacity of transmission system,a new probability evaluation method of available transmission capacity based on joint cumulants is proposed,and a risk available transmission capacity decision-making model based on expectile is proposed.Firstly,in order to solve the problem that the cumulant method requires independent variables and cannot consider the correlation of wind power output,the joint cumulant combined with FGM copula function is proposed to describe the correlation of wind power output;secondly,aiming at the problem of probabilistic assessment of available transmission capacity,a probabilistic assessment model of available transmission capacity is established by combining the partition integral method and Cornish Fisher expansion;finally,to solve the problem that the decision-making method based on value at risk only considers the probability of the tail of the probability distribution,which can not describe the risk generated in the whole distribution,an expectile-based risk available transmission capacity index is proposed,and its evaluation process is proposed.The feasibility and practicability of the proposed index and model are verified by an example.(4)Aiming at the optimization problem of wind power integration adequacy in distribution system,a relative robust GVaR risk measure is proposed,and the wind power integration adequacy index of distribution system is proposed.Firstly,aiming at the problem that the results of traditional robust optimization model are too conservative to consider the risk preference of different participants in the distribution system,a relatively robust GVaR risk measurement index is defined,and the properties of the relatively robust GVaR index are studied;secondly,in order to reflect the ability of the distribution system to ensure the wind power integration,combined with the relative robust GVaR index,the wind energy curtailment relative risk of the distribution system is proposed,and the calculation formula of the wind energy curtailment relative risk is given;then,in order to reflect the corresponding relationship between wind power output and load in historical data,a wind power load hierarchical power model is constructed.Based on the model,a stochastic robust hybrid optimization model is established with the lowest day ahead operation cost and the lowest relative risk of abandoned wind energy;Finally,the column and constraint generation algorithm is used to solve the stochastic robust hybrid optimization model,and the bilinear term which is difficult to deal with is simplified by the big M method,and the model is transformed into a mixed integer linear programming problem to solve.The feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed index and model are verified through the analysis of an example. |
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