Study On Quantitative Risk Assessment And Risk Control Method For Natural Gas Gathering And Distribution Network

The natural gas gathering and transportation network is a significant production process between natural gas extraction and long-distance transportation.And it is widely distributed,interlaced and complicated,and the surrounding terrain changes many times.It is extremely difficult to detect and construct.Pipes in the pipeline network often have internal corrosion,external corrosion,valves,pipe fittings,third-party damage,geological disasters,material problems,etc.The transported medium contains high levels of acid gas such as hydrogen sulfide,which is toxic and corrosive.Once a leak occurs,it may cause various risks such as fire,explosion,poisoning,and suffocation,resulting in significant economic losses,casualties,and serious Environmental pollution often causes significant economic losses to enterprises.The purpose of this paper is to establish a risk assessment and anti-corrosion study of natural gas gathering and transportation network,to achieve quantitative risk assessment and risk management of natural gas gathering and transportation network,and to minimize the various losses caused by accidents.The main research contents include: establishing a risk factor identification model for the natural gas gathering and transportation pipeline network for a comprehensive analysis of the main factors leading to failure;studying the quantitative calculation method of the failure probability of the natural gas gathering and transportation pipeline network;establishing a calculation model for the failure consequences of the natural gas gathering and transportation pipeline network,and studying the risk acceptance standard;quantifying environmental factors and defect information to improve the existing evaluation standards;taking corrosion failure as an example,to study the remaining life prediction of natural gas gathering and transportation pipelines;and finally,analyzing to put forward effective measures to control and prevent risk factors of natural gas gathering and transportation pipeline networks.In summary,form a perfect quantitative risk rating and control system for the natural gas gathering and transportation pipeline network to guide the safe and reliable operation,which has great economic value and social significance.The characteristics of this paper are as follows: taking the leakage failure of the natural gas gathering and transportation network as an example,a multi-factor fusion failure factor recognition model including corrosion,third party,soil displacement,etc.was established based on the accident tree and event tree theory,and the comprehensive failure factor mining of leakage accidents was realized.;based on the reliability analysis theory,the principle of failure assessment segmentation of the gathering and transportation network system was proposed,and the reliability assessment indexes of the gathering and transportation network system components were formed;the quantitative calculation method of the failure probability based on the fault tree and the analytic hierarchy process was established;a quantitative risk assessment model of the gathering and transportation network based on the Bayesian network was proposed to establish a quantitative risk level and realize the dynamic risk evolution law research;studied the calculation of failure consequences and the comprehensive research of risk acceptance criteria from both individual and social risks,which contributes to the rational formulation of management and control measures;a modification model for a pipeline defect safety factor based on analytic hierarchy process was established,and through comprehensive analysis of environmental factors and defect information,realized quantitative risk assessment of gathering pipelines with defects;based on Bayesian theory,proposed a solution method for the parameter distribution of the nonlinear model of gathering pipeline corrosion,and determined the prediction formula and confidence interval formula of the maximum corrosion depth of metal pipelines,realizing corrosion depth prediction of gathering and transportation pipeline network;proposed effective measures to control and prevent risk factors of natural gas gathering and transportation pipeline network and insufficient development at present stage,and indicated future research direction.