| China's high-speed rail has produced huge social and economic benefits and international influence,becoming a powerful engine to promote economic and social development.High-speed rail economics mainly focuses on studying various economic activities at different development stages and corresponding economic relations,as well as their operation and development laws.The research on the economic effect of high-speed rail is an important part of high-speed rail economics research and the evaluation theories,system and methods of high-speed rail effect are basically qualitative,lacking a systematic,comprehensive and quantitative evaluation theory and method.Systematic research on economic effects of high-speed rail is a supplement,improvement and development of high-speed rail economics,which has extremely important theoretical value and practical significance to further enhance the competitiveness,discourse power and influence of China's high-speed rail in the world.Based on the general principles and methods of satellite account construction,starting with defining the production scope of satellite account for high-speed rail economy and identifying special products of high-speed rail economy,this paper constructs and realizes the compilation and analysis of accounting tables,including the accounting table of added value of high-speed rail economy,total table of fixed capital formation,import and export transaction table of goods and services of high-speed rail economy,balance of international payments,by designing total indicators of high-speed rail macro-economic effect.Thus,it comprehensively reflects the quantitative characteristics and laws of high-speed rail economic activities,and objectively evaluates the aggregate effect,industrial correlation effect and multiplier effect of high-speed rail economy.The main conclusions of this paper are as follows:(1)Satellite account for high-speed rail economy is an effective tool to comprehensively and systematically reflect the high-speed rail macro-economic effect.Satellite account is used to measure a data system that breaks the scale and contribution of specific fields,topics or departments such as high-speed rail economy,which is recombined after breaking the existing industry classification or product classification of SNA central framework.Applying the principle of satellite account to the measurement of high-speed rail macro-economic effect can solve the problem of incomplete industry statistics,and comprehensively describe the production process,capital source and flow,input-output relationship,income distribution and use of high-speed rail economy.It can be said that the satellite account for high-speed rail economy based on satellite account principles is the most ideal,systematic,comprehensive and effective tool for analyzing and measuring the high-speed rail macro-economic effect.(2)The special products of high-speed rail economy are divided into 7 categories,and there are 33 special industries corresponding to the major categories in Industrial Classification for National Economic Activities(2017),distributed in 43 departments corresponding to the national input-output table(153 departments)in 2018.The special products of high-speed rail economy are divided into 7 major,23 medium and 60 minor categories,including "high-speed rail engineering technology and design service","high-speed rail line construction and service" and "high-speed rail transportation equipment".There are 21 kinds of goods and 39 kinds of services in the special product catalogue of high-speed rail economy;there are 22 characteristic products and 38 related products.The special industries of high-speed rail economy can be divided into33 kinds,such as "reproduction industry of printing and recording media"(23),"manufacturing industry of chemical raw materials and chemical products"(26)and "industry of non-metallic mineral products"(30).The special products of high-speed rail economy are distributed in 43 departments corresponding to the 2018 national input-output table(153 departments),including "reproduction of printing and recording media","coatings,inks,pigments and similar products" and "glass and glass products".(3)The basic accounting of satellite account for high-speed rail economy consists of four parts: added value of high-speed rail economy,input-output of high-speed rail economy,fixed capital formation of high-speed rail economy and import and export of high-speed rail economy.Some balance items in accounting tables correspond to some important economic aggregates such as total output,added value,final consumption expenditure,total fixed capital formation,import and export volume,final expenditure and employment number of high-speed rail economy.Input-output accounting of high-speed rail economy is the data source for added value accounting of high-speed rail economy and the basis for compiling other accounting tables of the satellite account.The intermediate product matrix of input-output table of high-speed rail economy based on 153 product departments is a square matrix of 196×196.(4)The added value of high-speed rail economy in 2018 was 242.209 billion yuan,accounting for 0.26% of GDP.The added value of high-speed rail economy calculated by income method was the same as that calculated by production method,in which the proportion of labor remuneration,net production tax,depreciation of fixed assets and operating surplus were 58.31%,10.04%,16.72% and 14.92%,respectively.The added value of high-speed rail economy calculated by expenditure method is significantly larger than those calculated by production method and income method.The total fixed capital formation was 411.209 billion yuan,the net export value of goods and services was 11.835 billion yuan,and the number of employed people was 1,423,561.The export value of goods and services was 27.665 billion yuan,the import value was 15.830 billion yuan,and the difference between import and export(net export)was 11.835 billion yuan.(5)The influence of product departments of high-speed rail economy is slightly higher than the average level of national economy of the whole society,while its sensitivity is significantly lower.The influence coefficients of 43 product departments of high-speed rail economy range from 0.3657 to 1.5255.The departments with influence coefficient greater than 1,mainly come from manufacturing and construction industries,while those with influence coefficient less than 1,mainly come from service industry.The average influence coefficient of product departments of high-speed rail economy is 1.0290,which is slightly higher than the average influence of national economy.The sensitivity coefficients range from 0.000 to 1.1855.Only three product departments,"Railway Passenger Transport-G","Railway Transport and Urban Rail Transit Equipment-G" and "Internet and Related Services-G",have sensitivity coefficients greater than 1,while the sensitivity coefficients of other 40 product departments are all less than 1.The average sensitivity coefficient of product departments of high-speed rail economy is 0.4346,which is significantly lower than the average product department of national economy in the whole society.(6)High-speed rail economy has the characteristics of high investment rate and low consumption rate.The following six product departments,"Railway Passenger Transport-G" and "Railway Transport and Urban Rail Transit Equipment-G",can be regarded as priority product departments for high-speed rail economy development.Compared with the national economy of the whole society,the intermediate input rate is about 6 percentage points higher,the added value rate is nearly 6 percentage points lower and the added value created by unit intermediate input is nearly 14 percentage points lower.From relative proportion coefficients of the added value by expenditure method,the high-speed rail economy is quite different from the national economy of the whole society.The final consumption rate(consumption rate)is about 30 percentage points lower,the capital formation rate(investment rate)is about 40 percentage points higher,and the net export rate is nearly 2 percentage points higher.The six product departments,including "Railway Passenger Transport-G","Railway Transport and Urban Rail Transit Equipment-G" and "Internet and Related Services-G",are the priority product departments for the development of high-speed rail economy.(7)In 2018,the total output of high-speed rail economy was 1,528.322 billion yuan,and the total income of residents was 228.536 billion yuan,which was 1.95 times the amount of the total output of high-speed rail economy and 1.62 times the amount of the direct labor remuneration in high-speed rail economy.The average simple output multiplier of 43 product departments was 2.9553,with relatively huge difference between each two.The multiplier effect of simple output in manufacturing product departments was the most obvious,and in service product departments,the least.The five departments with the largest total output,such as "Railway,Road,Tunnel and Bridge Engineering Construction-G","Railway Transportation and Urban Rail Transit Equipment-G" and "Architectural Decoration,Decoration and Other Construction Services-G",accounted for 85.00% of the total output.The average simple income multiplier of 43 product departments was 0.4540.The top 10 product departments with the highest income multiplier effect were all service product departments,and the lowest 10 product departments were all manufacturing product departments.Type I income multiplier effect of 43 product departments in high-speed rail economy was similar to output multiplier effect,but opposite to simple income multiplier effect.(8)In 2018,the full employment of high-speed rail economy was 3.44 times the number of employment of high-speed rail economy,accounting for 1.35% of the national employment in 2018.The average simple employment multiplier of 43 product departments in high-speed rail economy was 0.1150,with relatively huge difference between each two.The employment multiplier effect of each product department was similar to the output multiplier effect.In 2018,the full employment of high-speed rail economy was 4,897,457,which was 3.44 times the number of employment of high-speed rail economy--1,423,561,accounting for 1.35% of the national employment in 2018.(9)In 2018,the full added value of high-speed rail economy was 498.571 billion yuan,which was 2.06 times the amount of the added value of high-speed rail economy.The simple value-added multipliers of 43 product departments of high-speed rail economy were all 1,and the average type I value-added multiplier was 3.9099.The multiplier of type I added value of each product department was quite different,representing the characteristics of high in manufacturing product departments and low in service product departments.In 2018,the full added value of high-speed rail economy was 498.571 billion yuan,which was 2.06 times the amount of the added value of high-speed rail economy by production method and income method,and15.830 billion yuan more than the added value of high-speed rail economy by expenditure method. |
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