Research On Technology Foresight Method From The Perspective Of Knowledge Evolution

Technology foresight plays an important role in supporting the country or industry in optimizing resource allocation,intervening in the adjustment of development plans,so as to meet the needs of the integration of technology and economy,accelerating innovation efficiency,and enhancing competitiveness.As the trend of cross-penetration between subjects becomes more and more significant,the technology foresight methods that rely on qualitative analysis by experts have limitations in efficiency and other aspects.Quantitative information science methods have advantages in processing massive amounts of data and revealing specific knowledge characteristics,but they seldom consider the objective laws of knowledge itself in the process of innovation and development.In addition,there are different modes of knowledge in the process of innovation and development,and different innovation modes have different characteristics and evolutionary laws.As far as the subject is concerned,technology foresight analysis under only one mode may not be able to more comprehensively identify the corresponding technical theme.Then the technology foresight based on this subject also has limitations.In this regard,this thesis puts forward the problems to be solved: how to identify knowledge innovation models,how to measure the characteristics of different innovation models,and how to make predictions based on the identification of technical topics based on different innovation models.In response to the above problems,the main work carried out is as follows:(1)The basic concepts of technology foresight,the practical activities of different dimensions,and the basic process of technology foresight are sorted out,and the main functions of each process are analyzed.It summarizes the main analysis methods of technology foresight,including "qualitative analysis methods" and "quantitative analysis methods",reviews the advantages and limitations in the application process,and lays the methodological foundation for the method construction of this research.(2)It proposes and constructs a technology foresight model from the perspective of knowledge evolution.Based on the theory of knowledge evolution,two knowledge innovation mechanisms-inherited innovation mechanism and catastrophic innovation mechanism are proposed.The innovation mechanism determines the laws and characteristics of knowledge innovation.Therefore,two innovation modesincremental innovation mode and breakthrough innovation mode are used.The main characteristics of the "model" characterize the law of action of the innovation mechanism.A technology foresight model is constructed with knowledge innovation characteristics as the core.The main functions of the model include demand analysis,knowledge innovation characteristics analysis,knowledge innovation pattern recognition,and key theme identification and prediction.The key process of the model: supported by demand analysis,based on the knowledge innovation characteristics of time series to identify innovation patterns,identify key themes based on the evolution characteristics of the innovation patterns,and then combine key characteristics to predict the development trend of key topics.(3)It proposes and builds an integrated analysis method of knowledge innovation characteristics.It constructs key indicators based on the main characteristics and influencing factors in the two types of knowledge innovation characteristic analysis models,and constructs a comprehensive quantitative method system through comparative analysis methods to achieve the measurement of indicators,thereby realizing the effectiveness of characteristic analysis and measurement methods.integrated.(4)It carries out empirical analysis.The effectiveness of the technology foresight model constructed in this research is verified by the sub-field of "molecular breeding" in the field of botany.According to the incremental innovation mode and the breakthrough innovation mode,the key themes are identified,and the trends of the key themes are predicted.The main empirical research results show that the key theme identified under the incremental innovation model is "gene expression and regulation",which will continue to be in a stable development trend;the key themes identified under the breakthrough innovation model include whole genome selection analysis,whole-genome association analysis,gene editing technology,etc.These key themes will be in a rapid development stage.During the forecast period set by this research,the thematic clustering results and characteristics of the two innovation modes are basically in line with the key thematic trends proposed during the test period,indicating the effectiveness of the technology foresight model constructed.The innovations of this paper are mainly reflected in:(1)Proposing and constructing a technology foresight model from the perspective of knowledge evolution.In the process of constructing the predictive model of knowledge innovation,this research focuses on mining the characteristics of the development of knowledge innovation and realizing the identification and prediction of key themes by revealing the internal laws of the development of knowledge innovation.(2)The characteristics of incremental knowledge innovation and the breakthrough knowledge innovation are integrated and analyzed,and the analysis process and methods for identifying different innovation modes are constructed.(3)The empirical analysis verifies the feasibility of the model constructed in this study.