Research On Driving Mechanism And Guide Policy Of Farmers' Agricultural Water Saving Behavior

The main obstacle is the contradiction between water supply and demand that restricts the sustainable development of agriculture and food security in our country.Advocating agricultural water saving is an effective means to alleviate the contradiction between agricultural water use.As the main body of agricultural water use,farmers' water use behavior directly affects the utilization efficiency of agricultural water resources and the development of water-saving agriculture.However,as individuals with limited rationality,farmers' traditional agricultural practices are rooted in maximizing their own utility rather than environmental ethics.In the process of agricultural production,inefficient and unreasonable water use will inevitably occur.Therefore,paying full attention to agricultural water use behavior at the micro level,exploring the impact mechanism of water-saving behavior,and guiding farmers to consciously and actively participate in agricultural water-saving are of important practical significance for reducing water consumption,improving water use efficiency,and promoting the sustainable use of water resources.In view of the essential significance of the main behavior of agricultural water use in the realization of agricultural water saving,this article focuses on the internal and external factors influencing farmers' agricultural water saving behavior,while applying relevant theories and methods such as institutional economics,behavioral econom ics,agricultural economics,and econometrics.Based on the Hetao Irrigation District of the Yellow River Basin as the research area,this research aims to explore the mechanism of the internal psychological factors and external situational factors of farm ers on agricultural water-saving behavior,and to provide research experience and theoretical reference for water resources management and the formulation of related water-saving policies so as to enhance the enthusiasm of farmers for water saving,change the extensive irrigation methods,and effectively alleviate the contradiction between the supply and demand of agricultural water resources,and promote the sustainable use of water resources.The main content and research conclusions of this thesis are as follows:(1)From a theoretical perspective,this article analyzes the characteristics of farmer households' agricultural water-saving behavior and the influencing factors of agricultural water-saving behavior,and build a theoretical model based on this.First of all,based on the analysis of the connotation and extension of farmers' environmental behaviors,it defines the concept of farmers' agricultural water-saving behaviors,and divides agricultural water-saving behaviors into habitual,technical,social,and citizens according to their manifestations and motivations.Then,with the help of planned behavior theory,value-belief-normative theory,responsible environmental behavior theory,and social influence theory,a theoretical model of farmers' agricultural water-saving behavior is constructed.That is,the implementation of farmers' agricultural water-saving behavior depends on their willingness to save agricultural water.The generation of willingness depends on the psychological factors of farmers,and the behavior of farmers is also guided by external situational factors.Finally,based on the theory of externalities,this article discusses the externalities of farmers' agricultural water-saving behaviors,and uses economic analysis to explore the necessity of policy interventions for farmers' agricultural water-saving behaviors,and to provide theoretical basis for subsequent policy guidance research.(2)Relying on the theoretical model of farmer households' agricultural water-saving behaviors,and through explaining the relationship between variable factors,this article puts forward relevant research hypotheses,focuses on analyzing and discussing the driving effect of farmer's psychological factors on agricultural water-saving behaviors.First,the structural equation model is used to verify the direct effects of psychological factors on the willingness of agricultural water-saving behaviors,on agricultural water-saving behaviors,and how much the willingness of agricultural water-saving behaviors would affect the behaviors.The empirical results show that the psychological factors of farmers can directly affect the willingness and behavior of farmers' agricultural water-saving behaviors.The willingness of agricultural water-saving behaviors is also a key factor affecting agricultural water-saving behaviors.Secondly,this article applies the Bootstrap method of Amos23 software to verify the mediating effect of farmers' willingness to save agricultural water behavior in psychological factors and agricultural water-saving behavior.Studies have shown that the willingness of agricultural water-saving behavior has a mediating effect in the influence of psychological factors on agricultural water-saving behavior.For different types of agricultural water-saving behaviors,the mediating effect of agricultural water-saving behavior willingness is different.Finally,considering that psychological factors may have nonlinear systemic characteristics on agricultural water-saving behavior and the complexity of agricultural water-saving behavior itself,RBF neural network is used to further explore the predictive effect of psychological factors on agricultural water-saving behavior.Analysis shows that psychological factors can effectively predict whether farmers participate in agricultural water-saving,and different psychological factors have different rankings of the relative importance of different types of agricultural water-saving behaviors.(3)Based on the theory of responsible environmental behavior,the introduction of external contextual factors,focusing on the analysis and discussion of the mechanism of external contextual factors on farmers' agricultural water-saving behavior.First,the willingness of agricultural water-saving behaviors-analysis of behavioral differences showsshown that the willingness of agricultural water-saving behavior has a mediating effect in the influence of psychological factors on agricultural water-saving behavior.For different types of agricultural water-saving behaviors,the mediating effect of agricultural water-saving behavior willingness is different.Finally,considering that psychological factors may have nonlinear systemic characteristics on agricultural water-saving behavior and the complexity of agricultural water-saving behavior itself,RBF neural network is used to further explore the predictive effect of psychological factors on agricultural water-saving behavior.Analysis shows that psychological factors can effectively predict whether farmers participate in agricultural water-saving,and different psychological factors have different rankings of the relative importance of different types of agricultural water-saving behaviors.(3)Based on the theory of responsible environmental behavior,the introduction o f external contextual factors,focusing on the analysis and discussion of the mechanism of external contextual factors on farmers' agricultural water-saving behavior.First,the willingness of agricultural water-saving behaviors-analysis of behavioral differences shows that in the process of agricultural water-saving,there is a deviation between willingness and behavior,that is,willingness may not be effectively converted into actual water-saving actions that can achieve the purpose of water resources pr otection.It provides a realistic basis for studying the guiding effect of situational factors.Secondly,it uses hierarchical regression analysis to explore the adjustment effect of external contextual factors on agricultural water-saving behavior willingness on agricultural water-saving behavior.The study found that external contextual factors have a regulatory effect on the path of agricultural water-saving behavior willingness to act on water-saving behavior,but different external contextual variables have different regulating effects on the relationship between water-saving behavior willingness and behavior.The Model14 in the process plug-in program is further used to test the mediating effects between psychological factors,willingness to save agric ultural water behavior,external situational factors,and agricultural water saving behavior.The research conclusions show that the policy factors are in the “psychological factor-agriculture”.There is a moderating role in the intermediary path of “water-saving behavior willingness-agricultural water-saving behavior”.(4)On the basis of empirical static analysis,and based on the theory of complex adaptive systems,a multi-agent-based simulation model of farmer's agricultural water-saving behavior is constructed,and the Netlogo platform is used to simulate the dynamic guidance effect of different policy situations on the emergence of farmer's agricultural water-saving behavior.The results show that in the long run,farmers' agricultural water-saving behaviors will tend to be stable under the guidance of social norms and external policy factors.Incentive policies,command-control policies,and publicity and education policies can all promote agricultural water-saving.However,different types of policies have different effects on different types of water-saving behaviors.Incentive policies have the best effect on the promotion of technical agricultural water-saving behavior;command-and-control policies have a better effect on the promotion of habitual agricultural water-saving behaviors;publicity and education policies have a better effect on social agricultural water-saving behaviors and citizen-based agricultural water-saving behaviors.The promotion effect of behavior is better.The analysis of the effect of policy combination shows that under different policy combinations,the emergence effects of four types of agricultural water-saving behaviors are different.In the case of policy combinations,the customary agricultural water-saving behaviors are in command control policies and publicity and education policies.The implementation effect is better under the guidance of the combination of technology;the implementation effect of technical agricultural water-saving behavior is better under the guidance of the combination of incentive policies and command-control policies;social agricultural water-saving behaviors and citizen-based agricultural water-saving behaviors are more effective in the command-control type.Under the guidance of a combination of policies and publicity and education policies,the implementation effect will be better.The main innovations of this research are reflected in the following: First,based on the farmers' agricultural water-saving behavior motives and expressions of water-saving behaviors,the research on farmers' water-saving behaviors is carried out from multiple perspectives,and the water-saving behaviors of farmers are described and measured in a more detailed way.It expands the research content of agricultural water-saving behavior in practice,and further perfects and enriches the research field of peasant households' environmental-friendly behavior in theory;secondly,it constructs theagricultural water-saving behavior of peasant households as the guide,psychological factors as influencing variables and external situational factors.It is a theoretical model of farmer households' agricultural water-saving behavior as a moderating variable,and it explores the influence mechanism of psychological factors and external situational factors on different types of agricultural water-saving behaviors;third,based on empirical analysis,this article tries to use multi-agent modeling and simulation technology based on Agent simulation model of farmer's agricultural water-saving behavior to dynamically simulates the long-term dynamic guidance effect of policy factors on farmer's behavior,and analyzes the impact of policy factors on agricultural water-saving behavior in the long-term and different combinations.