Alliance Politics And Coercive Diplomacy

Alliance and Coercion are not only ancient phenomena of human society,but also classic topics in the research of international politics.Although the cases of alliances' exploiting coalitional coercion or counter-coercion are abundant,the existing studies haven't paid enough attention to its peculiarity and complexity when Alliances are involved in a coercive diplomacy strategy.This paper tries to explain the influence of alliance cohesion on coercive diplomacy strategy by analyzing threat signals.Firstly,this paper constructs a model of alliance cohesion in a coercive diplomacy situation.The author argues that the alliance cohesion is the result of the alliance's internal power distribution and external threat level and distribution.The power distribution within the alliance produces the binding force among the allied members,while the strong members are easier to control the weak ones.The external threat level and distribution produces the centripetal or centrifugal force among the members,when allied members facing serious and symmetrical external threats are easier to keep cohesive.Therefore,according to these two dimensions,this paper proposes seven ideal models of alliance cohesion by using typological research methods.This paper further constructs an analytical framework of the influence of alliance cohesion on coercive diplomacy strategy.With the help of threat signal analysis,this paper explains how alliance cohesion affects the four operational stages of coercive diplomacy,namely signal producing,transmission,interpretation and feedback.The author uses the cases of the first Korean nuclear crisis(1993-1994),the second Taiwan Strait crisis(1958)and the second Moroccan crisis(1911)to verify the performance of five of the seven ideal models in the international crisis.Regarding the alliance cohesion hypothesis,the paper concludes that the alliance's cohesiveness is high,if the allied members are subjected to a high degree of symmetrical external threats.A symmetrical alliance's cohesiveness is low,when the allied members are facing a low degree or a seriously asymmetrical external threat.The level of external threats to the powerful members in an asymmetrical alliance is positively correlated with the alliance's cohesiveness.When the powerful members in an asymmetrical alliance are under high external threats,the degree of polarization within the alliance is positively correlated to the cohesion of the alliance.As for the impact of alliance cohesion on coercive diplomacy strategy,the paper concludes that low degree of cohesiveness is a negative factor for the success of an alliance's coercive diplomacy strategy,while high degree of cohesiveness is positive.However,there is no linear causal relationship between alliance cohesion and the success or failure of coercive diplomacy strategy.