Research On Risk And Efficiency Of China's Investment In Countries Along "The Belt And Road"

In 2013,General Secretary Xi Jinping focused on thinking about the future and destiny of mankind and the development trend of China and the world.In order to promote the common prosperity of the world and promote the building of a community of human destiny,he jointly issued the "Silk Road Economic Belt" and "21st Century Maritime Silk Road" Major cooperative initiative.The advancement of the "Belt and Road" initiative has become a major measure for China to implement all-round opening up,and it is the world's largest international cooperation platform and a popular public product provided by China to the international community.China's investment in countries along the "Belt and Road" has developed rapidly.The amount of foreign investment has increased from 12.63 billion U.S.dollars in 2013 to 20.17 billion U.S.dollars in 2017.The investment stock has exceeded 150 billion U.S.dollars.In 2017,my country's direct investment flows to countries along the "Belt and Road" accounted for 12.7%of total foreign direct investment during the same period.The gains from co-building the "Belt and Road"cooperation have opened up more space for economic growth in countries and the world,created a platform for strengthening international cooperation,and made new contributions to building a community of shared future for mankind.However,Chinese companies will face investment risks in the political,economic,and social aspects of the host country when investing in the Belt and Road,and these risks will result in the loss of investment benefits.China and more countries go hand in hand through the "Belt and Road",seek common development,focus on solving global risk challenges,and promote the construction of a high-quality development of a community of human destiny.Based on this background,exploring ways to avoid investment risks and improve investment efficiency is the reference basis for the survival of Chinese foreign investment enterprises,the deep integration of China and the world economy,and the long-term exchange and cooperation of various countriesThe article focuses on the three aspects of research:Firstly,to build China's investment risk indicator system for countries along the "Belt and Road".Based on the reference system of internationally renowned rating agencies,qualitative assessment indicators such as social stability,governing capacity,and relations with China are added,and qualitative and quantitative indicators are combined to form a foreign direct investment risk indicator system suitable for China's national conditions.Secondly,China's risk assessment of investment in countries along the "Belt and Road".It mainly evaluates investment risks from different perspectives and country perspectives.In the evaluation of sub-indicators,the individual risk index assessment scores and comprehensive risk scores of the countries along the "Belt and Road" in terms of governance level,economic conditions,debt capacity,social stability and bilateral relations are obtained.In the country-by-country evaluation,the comprehensive evaluation value of investment risk of countries along the "Belt and Road" is calculated,and the investment risk performance of each region along the "Belt and Road" is specifically analyzed.Thirdly,China's evaluation of the investment efficiency of countries along the "Belt and Road".Select relevant economic variables and macro and micro investment inefficiency factors of China's foreign direct investment,and conduct an empirical analysis of China's investment efficiency in countries along the "Belt and Road",in order to explore the effects of various factors on the promotion or suppression of investment efficiency,thereby weakening investment Non-efficiency factors interfere with direct investment.On the basis of regression analysis,China's investment efficiency value for countries along the "Belt and Road" was measured.The investment efficiency was compared from different perspectives such as country,time,and region,and specific investment efficiency characteristics were analyzed.The research findings of the article:(1)Countries along the "Belt and Road" have generally high investment risks.Among the 35 sample countries selected,high-risk countries account for about two-thirds.The areas along the "Belt and Road" have uneven performance in terms of five first-level indicators.The financial systems of Central and Eastern European countries are relatively complete,and the overall level of investment security is relatively high.However,due to their distance from China,the score of relations with China is low;Although the five Central Asian countries have relatively low social risks,due to their backward economic conditions,turbulent political situation and weak government governance capabilities,the overall investment risk remains high.Among the many factors that describe and characterize the investment risks of countries along the "Belt and Road",the three factors of government ruling ability,economic development level and social stability are strongly related,and together form a comprehensive political,economic and social factor.It has the greatest impact on a country's overall investment risk and has become the most important factor in investment risk.(2)Empirical analysis of the impact of relevant economic variables and macro-and micro-investment inefficiencies on China's investment efficiency level and investment efficiency losses in countries along the "Belt and Road".Among the selected relevant economic variables,except that the variables of GDP and inflation rate have no significant effect on investment efficiency,the remaining variables have significant characteristics on the investment efficiency.Among them,the economic degree of freedom variable has the greatest influence,indicating that during the period of overseas investment by Chinese enterprises,the less government intervention,the lower the direct investment risks faced by enterprises,which can effectively improve investment efficiency.Among the selected investment non-efficiency variables,the most significant impact on China's investment efficiency loss is the difficulty of obtaining credit indicators and the indicators of curbing corruption.This conclusion is supported by the views of many scholars.(3)The efficiency level of direct investment by Chinese companies in countries along the "Belt and Road" is generally low.However,due to the inverse relationship between investment efficiency and investment potential,this phenomenon also shows that foreign direct investment has great potential and has a large room for development.Comparing investment efficiency values from different perspectives such as country,time,and region,it can be concluded that the efficiency level will show a steady growth trend with time;There is a relatively obvious spatial convergence in the country distribution;In terms of regional distribution,it shows the spatial distribution characteristics of higher investment efficiency in Asia and lower investment efficiency in Central and Eastern EuropeThe innovation of the article research:(1)At present,most of China's investment in developed countries and emerging economies is studied,and research on developing countries'investment is not paid much attention.The countries along the "Belt and Road" mainly composed of developing countries will be the key areas for China's foreign direct investment in the future.In terms of the index setting of the investment risk evaluation system,this paper analyzes the characteristics of investment risk based on the country types and geographical differences along the "Belt and Road".The index system constructed not only includes exchange rate fluctuations,government liabilities,etc.,but also includes economic freedom.Government governance quality,political stability,business environment,etc.At the same time,in order to reflect the "China factor" of the host country's national environment,taking into account the impact of the bilateral relationship between China and the host country on China's foreign direct investment,the host country's relationship with China is also included in the investment risk indicator system.(2)Build China's investment risk measurement model for countries along the "Belt and Road",using data from public data from authoritative institutions at home and abroad,such as the World Bank,the global economy,the United Nations,the official website of China Customs,the China Foreign Direct Investment Statistical Bulletin,and World Bank's "Business Environment Report".A combination of fuzzy grading evaluation method and principal component analysis method is used to evaluate investment risk from different indicators and country perspectives.A combination of fuzzy AHP and principal component analysis is used to evaluate investment risks from different indicators and country perspectives.A comprehensive quantitative assessment of the main risks faced by Chinese companies' overseas investments is objective and fair.(3)In China's selection of variables for the empirical analysis of the investment efficiency of countries along the "Belt and Road",this article will include both macro-political factors and micro-business factors into the framework of empirical analysis.The cross-effects of these risks will undoubtedly interfere with the stability and continuity of China's direct investment efficiency in countries along the"Belt and Road",and become a huge obstacle for Chinese enterprises to "go global".This paper selects the relevant economic variables and macro and micro investment inefficiency factors of China's foreign direct investment,and analyzes the promotion or inhibition of various influencing factors on investment efficiency,thereby reducing the interference of investment inefficiency factors on direct investment,which is the "Belt and Road" Lay the foundation for the improvement of construction efficiency and quality.