The Impact Of Terrorism Activities On China’s OFDI Along The "One Belt And One Road"

With the introduction of the "One Belt And One Road" initiative in 2013,China is committed to working with countries along the "One Belt And One Road" to seek common development and work together to create a community of interests,destiny and responsibility for mankind.Foreign direct investment(OFDI)is a priority area of the "One Belt And One Road" initiative and an effective way for China to deepen its integration with the world economy.The "One Belt And One Road" Initiative has strengthened the confidence of Chinese enterprises in the "going out" strategy and provided a more convenient development platform for Chinese enterprises’ OFDI.Up to now,China has become a major country of one-way inward investment and become an important source country of direct investment,at the same time,the countries along the line occupy a more important position for China’s OFDI.According to the Commerce Department,over the five years from 2013 to 2018,Chinese companies have paid more than 90 billion us dollars to the "One Belt And One Road" OFDI.Thus,the regions along "One Belt And One Road"have become the long-term stable growth point of OFDI in China,and will remain the most potential destination of OFDI in the future.According to the 2019《One Belt And One Road country investment index report》,Eastern,southeast and Middle East regions are the key investment areas of "One Belt And One Road" in China.These areas are rich in natural resources and have huge investment space.However,political instability in some countries in the region has also hindered future economic development to some extent.In recent years,some important investment projects of Chinese enterprises have suffered irreparable losses due to extremism,rampant terrorist activities and continuous social unrest in countries along the"One Belt And One Road".Terrorist activities tops the world’s top five non-traditional security issues,they exist objectively along the "One Belt And One Road" line,restrict or even hinder the development of cross-border investment by Chinese enterprises.Therefore,while implementing the "One Belt And One Road" initiative planning,we should also give full consideration to the impact of terrorist activities in countries along the route on OFDI.Careful assessment of terrorist activities and their impact in countries along the "One Belt And One Road" has become a key link before Chinese enterprises make transnational investment.Based on classic literature and research results at home and abroad,firstly,this paper summarizes the literature on "One Belt And One Road" OFDI and terrorist activities in the regions along the road as well as the influence of terrorist activities on OFDI.Adopting qualitative and quantitative analysis methods,firstly,China’s OFDI and current situation of terrorist activities in countries along the "One Belt And One Road" are analyzed from the perspectives of international investment theory,investment risk theory and non-traditional security threat theory.The influence mechanism of terrorist activities on different motives of OFDI in countries along the "One Belt And One Road" is discussed respectively.Then this paper collects 53 of the 63 countries along the "One Belt And One Road" line,the data of terrorist activities and China’s OFDI related indicators in the 15 years from 2004 to 2018,from the perspective of empirical analysis,the gravity model is used to empirically test the impact of terrorist activities in countries along the route on China’s OFDI and explore whether there is a difference in the impact of different investment motivations.Finally,combined with theoretical analysis and empirical results,it provides effective suggestions for Chinese enterprises to better prevent and deal with terrorist activities and their impacts when making cross-border investment,and further ensures the high-quality promotion of"One Belt And One Road" initiative.The research conclusions of this paper mainly include three aspects:(1)Areas along the "One Belt And One Road" are in the high incidence zone of terrorist activities,especially in West Asia and North Africa and South Asia,which are hardest hit by terrorist activities.Terrorist activities have a significant negative impact on China’s OFDI,which has become China’s main investment risk in the region,that is,China will reduce its direct investment in countries with frequent terrorist activities.(2)The market size,resource abundance and efficiency level of the host country are also important factors that influence the OFDI of the neighboring countries of "One Belt And One Road".China’s market-seeking and resource-acquiring OFDI have a relatively weak tendency to avoid terrorist activities in countries along the "One Belt And One Road",while efficiency-seeking OFDI has a relatively strong tendency to avoid terrorist activities,and does not have more efficiency to seek investment to flow into countries with more terrorist activities.(3)After the "One Belt And One Road" Initiative was put forward,terrorist forces launched more violent attacks on countries along the "One Belt And One Road",causing more terrorist incidents in the region and more frequent terrorist activities,which had a more significant negative impact on China’s OFDI.Compared with the existing research results,this paper innovates in the perspective of research.First of all,from the "One Belt And One Road" initiative is put forward to now,although the "One Belt And One Road" OFDI on our motivation and influence factors is perfect,but related to the host country terrorist activities as the main research object of the research is relatively small,this article specifically on terrorist activity study of the influence of OFDI,implements the selected topic Angle of innovation.Second,in the study of one of the few "One Belt And One Road" terrorist activities along the route related research on the influence of different motivation OFDI less involved,in this paper,on the basis of existing research,by introducing market seeking model in the empirical model,resources,seek and efficiency for three kinds of investment motive interaction variables and terrorist activities,will explore the terrorist activities of our country in the "One Belt And One Road" all the way along the different motives OFDI difference effect,realize the subject of further innovation,enrich the relevant research achievements in the field of the "One Belt And One Road" OFDI.