| With the rapid development of medical technology,people’s awareness of health and living standards,The average life expectancy of The Chinese population is rising rapidly,the aging population is growing at a faster pace,and the age structure of the population is undergoing profound changes.At the beginning of the People’s Republic of China,the average life expectancy in China was 44.59 years.By 2018,it has risen to nearly 77 years,with 73.64 years for men and 79.43 years for women.China’s life expectancy is now between middle-income and high-income countries,close to that of the United States.A basic fact associated with increased life expectancy is that China has a "young" retirement age and a low supply of Labour for the elderly.China’s current legal retirement age for enterprise employees is still the same as the old standard set in the 1950s:60 for men,55 for women cadres and 50 for women workers.According to statistics,the labor force participation rate of people aged 60（65 years old）and above in China dropped from 33.0%（25.1%）in the fifth census in 2000 to about 29.1%（21.1%）in the sixth census in 2010,and further declined to 26.8%（19.4%）in 2015,with an average annual decline of about 0.42（0.38）percentage points.The labor participation rate of urban workers in China is obviously lower than that of most developed countries,especially the labor participation rate of the elderly population aged 60-64 is even less than half of that of developed countries.With the increase of average life expectancy,the phenomenon of insufficient supply of elderly labor and "young" retirement age has aroused extensive discussion and concern.In this context,the reform of retirement policy and endowment insurance policy has been put on the agenda as a response measure.How to design the policy of postponing retirement and ensure the implementation effect of the policy of postponing retirement is an urgent issue to be discussed.Based on this,based on the unique perspective of Yu Changshou risk,this article attempts from the human capital investment,fertility policy adjustment,the endowment insurance JiangFei,retirees reemployment dimensions such as systematic investigation to extend life expectancy influence the inherent logic of retired elderly labor supply and behavior,conduction mechanism,answer these questions,not only for retirement policy optimization and active aging policy provides the theoretical basis and experience,but also can effectively reduce the resistance and reality in the process of reform of the Labour market volatility;as well as supply side structural reform provides a theoretical basis and practical reference.First,this paper systematically investigates life expectancy,human capital investment and early retirement.According to the data,a common anomaly in many countries around the world,including China,is that workers’ life expectancy is increasing,their years of education are increasing and they are retiring earlier.In this paper,a dynamic general equilibrium generation overlap（OLG）model is used to describe the early retirement behavior of Chinese workers and embed the human capital accumulation mechanism.Theory shows that when life expectancy increases,human capital investment can obtain higher wage rate return in the life cycle,and workers tend to invest more human capital in their youth and increase their years of education.This makes clear that ageing is not all bad,and that longer life expectancy can deliver another "demographic dividend",increasing the length of schooling and output per worker.If longer life expectancy has a human capital accumulation effect,why do workers choose to retire early?The comparative static analysis shows that,after taking into account the imperfect capital market,the dynamic general equilibrium effect generated by the interaction of education,consumption（savings）,retirement decision and factor prices,the effect of the extended life expectancy on the elderly labor supply of the actor is uncertain when the economy is in a steady state.Based on Chinese reality economic parameters of the numerical simulation results show that the human capital accumulation,the effective rate rising and falling interest rates caused by the income effect occupies the dominant position,the substitution effect is in a secondary position,this makes the laborer in old age to increase the demand for leisure,have the ability and willingness to retire early,research conclusion of this paper is good enough to match the abnormal phenomenon.Furthermore,the study on the lifetime labor supply time of laborers finds that the effective capital stock per labor in China has exceeded the threshold level,which leads to the lifetime labor supply time of the elderly gradually decreases with the extension of life expectancy.In addition,this paper finds that if the general equilibrium effect in real economy is not taken into account,the impact of extended life expectancy on the retirement age and lifetime labor supply of workers under the local equilibrium model may be seriously overestimated.Second,this paper systematically investigates life expectancy,adjustment of fertility policy and labor supply for the elderly.Starting from the institutional environment of the gradual relaxation of China’s fertility policy,this paper constructs a dynamic general equilibrium OLG model including life expectancy,fertility constraints and labor supply for the elderly,and focuses on the analysis of the impact of the adjustment of fertility policy on the labor supply（retirement）behavior of workers in the case of the extension of life expectancy.Theoretical analysis shows that in an economy with limited family fertility,after the government relaxes the birth control policy,the economy will converge to a new steady-state equilibrium,and when the economy is in a new steady-state equilibrium,the effective labor-per-capital and effective wage level in the equilibrium state will decline,and the return on capital（interest rate）will rise.Various parameters of the calibration model,based on comprehensive two child policy situation and "more than three children and one child policy" situation analysis,the simulation results found with the family planning policy adjustment（relax）,extended life expectancy by general equilibrium effects changed Chinese laborers choose the number of children,the elderly labor supply between retirement leisure time allocation,namely fertility constraints limit increase lowered the laborers older labor time and enjoy more leisure time will strengthen,choose to retire ahead of schedule.This means that after the implementation of the universal two-child policy,there may be conflicts between postponing retirement and relaxing the fertility policy in increasing the labor supply for the elderly.Third,this paper systematically investigates life expectancy,pension insurance fee reduction and labor supply for the elderly.The policy of reducing social security fees is an important part of the supply-side structural reform.In the context of increasing life expectancy and increasing pressure on the elderly,the government’s policy on the elderly labor supply behavior of Chinese workers is worth in-depth discussion.This paper constructs an overlapping generation（OLG）model including life expectancy,pension insurance fee reduction and endogenous retirement decision,and focuses on the impact of life expectancy and pension insurance fee reduction on the labor supply and welfare level of the elderly,and carries out numerical simulation and sensitivity analysis combined with China’s real economic parameters.The comparative static analysis shows that the reduction of endowment insurance premium rate can promote the increase of labor supply for the elderly and the delay of retirement age,but the impact of the extension of life expectancy on the labor supply for the elderly is uncertain and mainly depends on the fluctuation interval of endowment insurance payment rate.If the payment rate is within the range（12%,20%）,the increase of life expectancy will lead to the increase of labor supply for the elderly;When the contribution rate drops to 12%or below,the relationship between life expectancy and elderly labor supply is no longer monotonous,but shows an inverted "U-shaped" changing relationship.Moreover,the current life expectancy is on the right side of the inflection point,which means that there is a "lower limit" on the policy goal of endowment insurance fee reduction.In the further discussion and research,this paper proves that whether the endowment insurance fee reduction policy can achieve pareto improvement and effectively utilize the elderly labor force depends not only on the scope of endowment insurance contribution rate reduction,but also on the dynamic adjustment range of retirement age.In the survival of life,under the current government in the interval(12%,20%]reduce old-age insurance payment rate and the corresponding delay retirement age,can have the effect of "formedn" and the endowment insurance payment rate fell to 12%,and the following,is unable to realize make full use of the elderly labor resources,extend the policy effect of demographic dividend.With the continuous growth of life expectancy,the government should take advantage of the trend and actively explore the dynamic mechanism of the decline of endowment insurance payment rate and the adjustment of retirement age,so as to achieve the implementation effect of "perfect combination".In addition,sensitivity analysis shows that the conclusions of this study are robust.The smaller the elasticity of output of material capital,the higher the labor supply for the elderly;The greater the degree of leisure preference for retirement,the more obvious the individual will be to reduce the supply of elderly labor.Fourth,this paper systematically investigates the extension of life expectancy and the decline of the elderly.The reemployment behavior of retirees is an important factor to understand the retirement age system in China.In theory,if workers cannot accurately predict their future life expectancy,they may not be able to make the optimal decisions for their old age and thus be exposed to longevity risk.Under China’s current mandatory retirement age system,longer life expectancy means a corresponding increase in retirement leisure time for the elderly,who may choose to return to the labor market in order to ensure a longer life quality during retirement and reduce the longevity risk they face.In order to verify the theoretical inference,basing on the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study（CHARLS）,the survive life was used as the measurement index of individual life expectancy for empirical test.The measurement results show that,after taking into account the heterogeneity of retirees（age）,the improvement of life expectancy not only promotes the retirement and re-employment behavior of the elderly in China from the aspect of breadth（re-employment participation）,but also from the aspect of depth（labor supply time）.This conclusion is still valid even if instrumental variable method,measure index change,focus sample elimination,estimation method change and so on are used for bond stability analysis.Further heterogeneity test results found that the positive effects of increased life expectancy on reemployment behavior of retirees were more prominent among those with education,"no living with children" and those without pension.In addition,the retirees outside the system have a more obvious marginal tendency to re-employment participation and increase the working time of the elderly.Fifthly,this paper analyzes the retirement age system（policies）between China and the major developed countries.The retirement age system in China restricts the supply of old labor,and the policy of postponing retirement has been discussed for many years in Our country,although there is great controversy,it is imperative.Much of the current debate has focused on how much to delay retirement,but neglected the issue of the retirement age system itself.This paper analyzes the three typical characteristics of the current retirement age system in China,namely the separation of the wage income from pension benefits,the mandatory retirement age,and the lack of internal incentive mechanism for delaying retirement.Looking at the historical background of the adjustment of retirement age policy in western developed countries,the dilemma of China today is similar to it.In this paper,8 countries with distinct characteristics in terms of retirement age and endowment insurance policy reform are selected for summary analysis,namely the United States,The United Kingdom,Germany,Italy,the Netherlands,Denmark,Japan and South Korea.With the change of life expectancy,the adjustment range of retirement age,the adjustment period of retirement age,the main adjustment contents and the adjustment means of retirement policy in different developed countries are analyzed.To discuss and summarize the adjustment paths and measures of retirement age systems（policies）in different developed countries is of great reference value for China to optimize retirement policies and deal with longevity risks.This paper is probably the first to systematically examine the impact of longer life expectancy on China’s elderly labor supply（retirement）behavior and how to make full use of the elderly labor resources from the perspective of the reality of longevity risk.Compared with the existing research,the marginal contribution of this paper may be mainly embodied in the following three aspects:the research content,this article from the different dimensions are analyzed in detail to extend life expectancy influence elderly labor supply mechanism,transmission mechanism,effect and institutional roots,refine and deepen the labor supply effect of extended life expectancy of research contents.In terms of research methods,this paper mainly describes the behaviors of families and enterprises through dynamic general equilibrium generation overlapping（OLG）model,and conducts comparative static analysis and numerical simulation on the equilibrium results.Compared with empirical studies relying solely on empirical data,this method is more closely connected with the theoretical mechanism,and can more truly reveal the transmission mechanism of the impact of extended life expectancy on the behavior of elderly labor supply（retirement）,enriching and expanding the theoretical literature related to extended life expectancy.In terms of research conclusions,the research conclusion of this paper is well consistent with the fact that "life expectancy increases,while individuals have more education time but retire early",and finds that relaxing the family planning policy will increase the willingness of workers to enjoy more leisure time and choose to retire early.In social security JiangFei aspect,this article found that longer life expectancy of elderly labor supply effect will be affected by the endowment insurance payment rate change interval,JiangFei also confirmed that the endowment insurance policy can realize the pareto improvement and effective utilization of old Labour,depending on the scope of endowment insurance payment rate decline and the dynamic adjustment of the retirement age.These new findings provide theoretical basis and quantitative support for the rational formulation of retirement policy optimization measures in China.Based on the above conclusions,this study has the following policy implications:First,reform the rigid retirement system.The current retirement policy in China forces the elderly who reach the legal age to quit their jobs,which restricts the labor participation and working time of the middle-aged and elderly in China.Second is the old age,human resources,including as labor and human capital stock,factors of production are precious,should be dig allowing it to continue to contribute to the economic growth,but simple delay retirement age is not the practice of science,should provide the delay retirement more incentive to guide people in old age increase spontaneously working fixed number of year;Third,there may be conflicts between postponing retirement and the relaxation of maternity policy in increasing the supply of elderly labor.When designing the postponing retirement policy,the government should fully consider the negative impact of the adjustment of maternity policy.Fourth,with the orderly progress of social security fee reduction,government departments should follow the trend,explore the establishment and improvement of a dynamic linkage mechanism in line with China’s national conditions to extend life expectancy,pension insurance fee reduction and retirement age adjustment,and guide people to retire at the target retirement age through economic incentives.Five is,according to the trend of China’s ageing population and the experience of other countries,delay retirement as a lever for promoting positive ageing policy,it is imperative,but retirement policy reform can really work effectively,also depends on whether supporting policies and cohesion,at present our country other related policy and system to build and perfect,delay retirement age policy landing is still need to be careful. |
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