Research And Prediction Of Longevity Risk In China’s Elderly Population

According to the data of the seventh national census,the aging of China’s population has further deepened,and the consequent problem of longevity risk has become more serious.Population aging is an obje ctive trend of modern economic and social development and a common problem faced by most developed countries,an important trend of social development and the basic national condition of China for a longer period of time in the future.With the increase of the remaining life expectancy per perso n and the accelerated trend of population aging,the issue of longevity risk cannot be ignored.Establishing a scientific mortality prediction model of the elderly population is of great and far-reaching significance for actively coping with the aging of the population and better planning the longevity risk faced by the elderly population.The mortality data of the elderly population in China’s age-specific population data have different upper age limits and some data are missing.Due to the small number of data years,poor quality and large fluctuations,it has caused some difficulties in establishing the mortality prediction model.Therefore,this paper establishes a Lee-Carter model based on mortality data from 1994-2019 and solves the problem of missing data u sing iterative weighted least squares estimation.According to the trend of age factor of the established sex specific Lee-Carter model,the age factor is ext ended to 110 years old,which provides a mortality prediction model with a higher upper age limit for the study of mortality of the elderly population in China.When using the new model of age factor extension to analyze the mortality rate of China’s elderly population,the age-specific population death data and sexspecific age-specific population mortality data published by the National Bureau of statistics are selected respectively,the time factor is adjusted and predicted by using life expectancy,and then the mortality data in the census year are compared to verify the reliability of the age factor extension method,and further analyze the sex-specific mortality rate,life expectancy Personal accounts and future population projections.The existing fi xed number of months of personal account cannot reflect the continuous extension of life expectancy of male and female population in the future.It is necessary to study the income and expenditure of basic old-age insurance for employees from the perspecti ve of sustainability.Combined with the comparative analysis of the gap rate of pension personal account,the study shows that delaying retirement is an inevitable measure under the background of aging in China,It further reflects that delayed retirement plays an important role in maintaining the balance of the pay as you go overall account in China.Finally,based on the current situation of China’s population structure and the design of retirement age,this paper puts forward corresponding suggestions to provide information support for the implementation of progressive retirement age and coping with the risk of longevity.