Research On My Country's Longevity Risk Based On The Change Of Population Structure

With the progress and development of our society,the standard of living has improved rapidly.The proportion of the elderly population in our country's population structure has increased year by year,and the mortality rate of the population of all age groups has gradually decreased.In particular,the mortality rate of the elderly population has decreased significantly,and the rate of decrease is relatively large.The average life expectancy of the population is showing a continuous upward trend.Longevity risks will have a huge impact on our country's entire pension insurance system.Whether it is to the government,enterprises or insurance companies,it will lead to the extension of the pension payment period,increase the difficulty of pension management,and hinder our country's economic development.healthy growth.This thesis first introduces the theoretical basis of longevity risk research,including concepts,characteristics,causes and effects,and related theoretical models for mortality prediction.Subsequently,based on the background of population aging,an empirical analysis of the current longevity risk was carried out.In recent years,the proportion of the elderly population in China's population structure has been increasing,and the mortality rate of the elderly 65 years and older has fallen.A quantitative analysis was performed.Then,based on the Carter Lee-mortality prediction model,the mortality rate of the male and female populations in our country is predicted in the next few years,and the Gompertz model is used to smooth the population mortality curve of the 65-year-old and above population.Based on the prediction results of the mortality rate of men and women in the future,a life table was compiled to calculate the average life expectancy of the future population by gender.Finally,under the fund accumulation system,the principle of balance of income and expenditure of personal pension accounts is used to measure the impact of longevity risks on personal pension accounts,so as to quantify longevity risks.The research results show that: First,our country's aging problem is serious.The proportion of the elderly population and the elderly dependency coefficient are increasing year by year.Both the average life expectancy of the male population and the average life expectancy of the female population are showing a rising trend;Second,from an overall point of view,the mortality rate of the Chinese population is showing a gradual decline.There is a significant difference in the rate of decrease in the mortality rate of men and women in the low and high age ranges,and the mortality rate of men in the same age range is relatively higher.Third,the results in the compilation of life tables show that China's life expectancy will increase by about 0.2years every other year during the next five years.Fourth,because the actual life expectancy is higher than the average life expectancy under the system design,the longevity risk will cause a certain payment gap for the personal pension account.As the gap between the two increases,the payment gap will also expand.Therefore,corresponding suggestions are put forward: First,the government needs to increase investment in pension and medical security measures,actively promote the development of the aging industry,and provide policy support for the development of the aging industry in terms of reducing loan interest and providing subsidies.Second,build a comprehensive and multi-level insurance model for the pension industry to increase the coverage rate of pension insurance.Third,scientifically adjust the investment structure of pension insurance funds and establish diversified financing channels.Fourth,use science and technology to improve the statistical work of population mortality,standardize the statistical caliber of the data,and adjust the retirement age flexibly and appropriately.