| In the first 30 years since the reform and opening-up,China's economic growth miracle can be regarded as a process of fulfilling the demographic dividend.However,since 2010,the changing trend of population age structure in China has reversed,and the traditional demographic dividend has declined.In this context,it is of great practical significance to effectively improve the quantity of labor supply and ensure sufficient labor resources for China's sustained economic growth.At the same time,the improvement of the quality of labor supply can alleviate the negative impact of the disappearance of the traditional demographic dividend and construct a new growth point for China's economy,by improving labor productivity and innovation.Obviously,how to continuously guarantee sufficient and high-quality labor supply is a key issue to be solved urgently in the current stage of high-quality economic development.In view of this,it is particularly important to investigate factors affecting the quantity and quality of labor supply.Both quantity and quality of labor supply have rich connotations.Based on China's current reality background and human capital theories,this paper selects labor participation rate to reflect the quantity of labor supply,and selects education and health human capital to reflect the quality of labor supply.The labor participation rate is reflected as the labor participation decision of residents in the micro level.The average schooling years of the labor force is an important indicator reflecting the education human capital.In the context of large-scale labor mobility in China,the inflow of external human capital has become one of the main factors affecting the accumulation of regional human capital.Therefore,education human capital is directly affected by the labor mobility decisions.Health human capital is mainly embodied in two aspects of physical health and mental health,which is directly affected by individual health investment behavior.In short,the social and economic factors that affect the residents' behavior decisions must have a profound impact on the quantity and quality of labor supply.As an important factor influencing behavioral decisions of residents,housing prices(refers to housing sales prices specifically in this paper)in China has an increasingly significant impact on households'(individual)behavioral decisions,owing to the relatively high rate of home ownership,the relatively high proportion of real estate in the total household assets,the weak ability of residents to pay for housing prices,and the relatively high leverage ratio of the residential sector.Then,what impact will house price changes have on the quantity and quality of labor supply? Obviously,the answer to this question will not only help deepen the understanding of the socioeconomic effects of housing price changes,but also help identify the role of housing prices in the process of labor supply changes and propose corresponding countermeasures accordingly.Research on the existing literature shows that there exist deficiencies in theoretical explanations and empirical methods,whether in literatures of housing prices affect the quantity and quality of labor supply,or in more specific researches where housing prices affect residents' labor participation,education human capital,and health human capital,which not only provide objective space for the research of this paper,but also further illustrate the necessity of this research.The normal progress of labor reproduction is a prerequisite for ensuring a certain quantity and quality of labor supply.In Das Kapital,Marx pointed out that the time needed to produce labor force can be converted into the time needed to produce these means of subsistence.In other words,the value of labor force is the value of subsistence materials required by the owner of the labor force.Marx's analysis of labor reproduction shows that the process of labor reproduction is manifested as the process of consumption of subsistence materials.Obviously,the factors that affect the consumption of subsistence materials in labor reproduction process will affect the normal progress of labor reproduction,and then affect the quantity and quality of labor supply.Therefore,the change in housing prices will inevitably affect the quantity and quality of labor supply by affecting the consumption of housing and non-housing subsistence materials in labor reproduction process.Family rational collective decisionmaking theory,push-pull theory and health human capital investment theory can explain the influence of house price change on residents' labor participation,education human capital and health human capital in a more specific way.According to the theory of family rational collective decision-making,residents' labor participation behavior will be adjusted in reverse according to the change of house price,and the path of rising house price affecting residents' labor participation includes at least three paths: wealth effect,house slave effect and inheritance motivation.According to the push-pull theory,house prices influence the regional education human capital by applying different degrees of “push” and “pull” to the flow of labor with different educational levels.According to the theory of health human capital investment,the change of house price will affect the stock of individual health human capital by affecting the housing goods(services)that individuals can buy directly and the total wealth that can be used for health investment.The changing track of house price in China and the characteristic facts of its influence on labor supply lay a realistic foundation for the empirical analysis of the influence of house price changes on the labor supply.China's housing market system and regulatory policies are an important mechanism to drive changes in China's housing prices.Since the cessation of physical distribution of housing in 1998 and the full implementation of housing marketization,China's housing prices have shown a rising trend,and the real estate market has a clear regional differentiation.First-tier cities have the largest increase in housing prices,followed by second-tier cities,and third-tier cities have the smallest.In most cities,there exist different levels of housing payment difficulties.The actual performance of the relationship between house price and labor supply quantity and quality shows that there is a reverse linkage between house price and labor participation rate.Overall,there is a positive correlation between the housing price and the proportion of highly educated labor force in all regions.However,when the housing price level is too high,the continued rise of housing price may be harmful but not beneficial to the optimization of the educational structure of regional labor force and the improvement of education human capital level.In the context of high housing prices,"difficult to buy a house" has become the main source of pressure for urban labor force,and high housing prices may have adverse effects on the physical and mental health of labor force.Based on analyzing the present situation and characteristic facts of housing prices impacts on labor supply in China,using micro data form China Household Finance Survey(CHFS),China Family Panel Studies(CFPS),and macro data from the “China Population and Employment Statistics Yearbook”,the “China Statistical Yearbook”,EPS,and the Ministry of Education,and through the method of the Linear Probability Model(LPM),Binary Selection Model(i.e.Probit and Bi Probit),Conditional Mixed Process(CMP),Panel fixed effect model,Instrumental Variable(IV),System Generalized Method of Moments(SYS-GMM),Bootstrap based test,Moderating effect model,Entropy method,Concentration Index(CI)and other econometric analysis methods,this paper empirically analyzes the impact of housing price on the quantity of labor supply from the perspective of residents' labor participation,and empirically analyzes the impact of housing price on the quality of labor supply from the perspective of education human capital and health human capital.According to the above theoretical and empirical analysis,can draw the following main conclusions: first,housing prices have a significant impact on the quantity and quality of labor supply.The existence of this impact is not only supported by theoretical analysis,but also its significance has been tested by three empirical parts.Second,house prices have a significant negative impact on residents' labor participation.This negative impact has gender,educational level,and age heterogeneity.The influence path includes its own housing wealth effect,the extra wealth effect of parents' house,the house slave effect,and the inheritance motive.Both the wealth effect of own house and the extra wealth effect of parents' house will reduce the probability of labor participation,while the housing slave effect and inheritance motivation will weaken the negative effects of these two kinds of wealth effects.Third,the impact of house prices on regional education human capital shows a U trend.At the same time,the number of regional key universities has a moderating effect on the relationship between housing prices and regional education human capital.When the number of regional key universities is large,the sensitivity of regional education human capital to the change of housing prices decreases.Fourth,the rise in house prices has different effects on the physical and mental health of different residents.For those with no housing difficulties,no housing payment pressure,and more housing wealth,the increase in housing prices is beneficial to their physical health;for those with less housing wealth,the increase in housing prices is not conducive to their mental health,and compared with groups without housing difficulties and housing payment pressure,the mental health of those who face housing difficulties and housing payment pressure is more adversely affected by the increase in housing prices.In addition,rising house prices can lead to mental health inequalities associated with housing wealth.The practical significance of the above conclusions is that the design and construction of long-term mechanism for regulating the real estate market should properly consider the factors of labor supply,the high-price cities should pay attention to the effective use of high-end talent housing support policies,and policy attention should be paid to health and health inequality caused by rising housing prices in order to reduce the adverse effects of high house prices on the supply of sufficient and high quality labor force,etc.The novelty of this paper is mainly manifested in three aspects.(1)A breakthrough has been made in the research status that mainly analyzes the relationship between housing prices and the quantity of labor supply.This paper examines the labor supply effect and mechanism of house price change from the dual perspectives of labor supply quantity and quality.The reason for its novelty is that this kind of dual perspective research is rarely seen in the existing literature,but also because this paper explores the application of the new concept of High-Quality Economic Development in the research of housing price affecting labor supply,which is rarely seen in existing studies.(2)In several details of the empirical analysis,this paper tried processing ideas and methods that is obviously different from the existing similar studies.First,in the empirical study of the impact of housing prices on residents' labor participation,the Bi Probit model is used to jointly investigate the impact of housing prices on the labor participation of couples,which is obviously different from the previous literature only to examine the behavior of family members' labor participation in isolation.In addition,the empirical analysis of the additional wealth effect of “parents' real estate may belong to oneself in the future” also has the characteristics of this article.Second,when investigating the impact of housing prices on regional education human capital,combined with mathematical deduction,it is demonstrated that the number of regional key universities plays a role in moderating the U-shaped relationship between housing prices and education human capital,which is also rare in the existing literature.Third,based on demonstrating the relationship between housing prices and health,with the help of the Concentration Index(CI),the issue of health inequality related to housing wealth was explored,which made up for the lack of research on health inequality in the existing relevant literature.(3)The study found that the rise in house prices is not conducive to the mental health of the relatively vulnerable groups of housing,and causes the mental health inequalities related to housing wealth.The novelty of this finding is that it has not been mentioned in the existing relevant literature.At the same time,this discovery is not only related to the individual but also to the smooth progress of social reproduction.It is a practical problem that must be solved to carry out the concept of high-quality development in labor supply,but is has not attracted sufficient attention from the industry and academia. |
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