Research On Investment Risk Analysis And Decision-making Of Biomass Power Generation Project

Since the 1990s, Chinese economic output and growth rate remained higher level. However, energy consumption also presents the same rapid growth; energy supply and demand situation has undergone a basic equilibrium by production and consumption of self-sufficiency to import energy state. The energy crisis and environment pollution become the key issues, which restrict social and economic sustainable development. In this situation, actively develop the renewable energy, including biomass energy sources, realize the clean efficiency of energy resources utilization, and promote energy structure transformation from oneness to diversification; become one of the most important measures to solve the problem of energy-economic-environmental problems. Biomass power generation as a very important and effective way of biomass energy use, the development opportunity already matures in China. In 2007, our country "renewable energy of long-term development" put forward by 2020, total installed capacity of biomass power generation reaching 3,000 million kilowatts. However, the loss of biomass power generation industry is always "the stumbling block" of the industry development in China. At present, our country has about 100 biomass power projects which have put into production, but the vast majority is in the loss edge. Therefore, the research on investment risk of biomass power project is of important theoretical and practical significance.In this paper the investment risk of the biomass power projects being as research object, based on relevant theories of domestic and foreign investment and risk management, in the aspect of differences between the biomass generation and other technologies, adopting the method of combining the theoretical research and the empirical test, in order to search for an effective theory and method of identification, estimation and evaluation on biomass power generation project investment risk. This paper will introduce real option theory into investment risk decision-making domains of biomass power projects; try to put forward new perspective of project investment decision-making.This research content and conclusion have the following aspects: (1) To study the biomass power projects investment risk features and investment risk sources, using IDEF0 complex system analysis method to establish the risk factor of one and secondary class index system, and each of the risk factors is analyzed and expounded.(2) To analyze the risk factors concretely according to biomass power projects fuel costs and power price, put forward fuel inventory risk allocation optimization strategy from supply chain risk management theory, put forward specific policy recommendations from economic theory to the power plant power price. The biomass power projects investment risk evaluation index system and the method system are given which are based on risk identification. The traditional evaluation method are summarized, study the biomass power projects investment risk artificial neural network model, and give out the comprehensive evaluation model of the biomass power projects investment risk.(3) To base on the analysis of the types and characteristics of real options of biomass power generation project, points out the basic thought and finds out the main difficulties of the biomass power generation project real options pricing. Constructs the biomass power generation project real option application frameworks, establishes the biomass power projects delayed real option pricing model.(4) To take a biomass power project, for example, this paper analyzes the main risks of the project from the status of the project, carries on the actual power plant fuel inventory coordination optimization for reducing fuel inventory risk. On the basis of preliminary risk identification, constructs the project risk assessment index system through consulting some experts. Launches multi-factor comprehensive evaluation on the project risk using BP neural network model, determines the project risk level. Finally using real option theory on the feasibility of investment projects, analyzes comparatively with traditional investment decision-making method and real option method.