Study On The Marginal Effect Of The Export Of Chinese High-tech Products To SCO Member States

The current US administration and its allies have imposed restrictions on China's high-tech exports and on the high-tech development of the SCO member states.With the prevalence of trade protectionism and unilateralism and the deterioration of the international trade environment,the trade volume of China's high-tech exports to the SCO member states has increased rapidly,and the variety,quantity and price of its exports have all increased significantly.In order to deepen cooperation in the field of high and new technologies,the SCO has signed the agreement on scientific and technological cooperation among the governments of the SCO member states,giving priority to cooperation in scientific and technological fields of common interest.However,China is facing the reality of large economic size differences,limited market demand,fierce competition and higher costs of export market diversification.China's export and export volume of high-tech products to the SCO member states has been growing steadily,and the export varieties have been enriched,but the export prices have been low for a long time.The problem of export can be found through ternary margins,which is of great significance for deepening high-tech trade cooperation with the SCO member states.Based on the traditional trade theory,the new trade theory,the new-new trade theory and the export market diversification theory,this paper analyzes and explains the export marginal effect in multiple dimensions,and constructs a theoretical analysis framework of the export marginal effect to the large and small developing countries.The status and influencing factors of China's high-tech export to the SCO member states are analyzed,makes an empirical analysis on the marginal effect of China's high-tech exports to SCO member states.Specifically,the following conclusions are drawn.(1)China's exports of high-tech products to the SCO member states as a whole have maintained a steady growth trend.The volume of China's exports of high-tech products to the SCO member states is related to its economic scale.Countries with a larger export economy have a relatively small range of product fluctuations from year to year,and the upward trend is relatively stable.The proportion of high-tech products exported to the SCO member states is gradually increasing and the export structure is gradually optimized.The export structure of high-tech products is similar to that of countries with similar economic scale.(2)The ternary marginal of high-tech product export has a rising trend,and has a positive correlation with the economic scale.The larger the scale of economy,the greater the contribution of quantity margin to export growth;the smaller the scale of economy,the greater the contribution of extensive margin to export growth.For countries with large economies of scale,the export quality increases steadily and the growth rate of export varieties gradually slows down.For countries with small economies of scale,the export quality changes greatly and the export varieties grow rapidly.(3)Innovation output,export competitiveness,technological complexity,partnership and market size contribute to the growth of the quantity and extensive margins of China's high-tech exports to the SCO member states.Without considering the threshold of market size,the marginal relation between variable trade cost and export of high-tech products is not significant.Considering the market size threshold,the variable trade cost is positively correlated with the extensive margin and the quantity margin.There is a significant positive correlation between international trade environment and export extensive margin and quantity margin,but there is a significant negative correlation between the influence of international trade environment and the interaction of technological innovation and export extensive margin and quantity margin of high-tech products.(4)The competitiveness of China's high-tech exports to the SCO member states has maintained an upward trend and is positively correlated with the economic scale.The larger the economic scale,the more stable the growth of export indicators and the smaller the annual fluctuations.There is a significant positive correlation between export ternary margin and export competitiveness,the influence of extensive margin,quantity margin and price margin on export competitiveness decreases in turn,and export marginal effect increases significantly.(5)There is a significant positive correlation between input factors or spillover factors of technological innovation and technological innovation;There is a significant negative correlation between import and export volume and technological innovation,which reflects that the role of "dry middle school" and "export middle school" is not fully played.There is a significant positive relation between the total labor force and total factor productivity,and a significant negative relation between the total labor force and innovation output,which reflects the low overall quality of labor force.There is a significant negative correlation between high-tech product exports and total factor productivity,and a significant positive correlation between high-tech product exports and innovation output.Export price margin obviously promotes technological innovation,and export marginal effect increases.(6)China's input in technological innovation can obviously promote the growth of technological complexity of export,and the growth of technological complexity of export obviously promotes the growth of the extensive margin of China's high-tech export,and the marginal effect of export is significantly improved.Based on the above analysis,the following suggestions are put forward : First,different export measures are adopted according to the marginal effect of export.Second,we should pay attention to the needs of small countries in high-tech trade and diversify export methods.Third,promote common technological progress through technology transfer to small countries.Fourth,focus on the technological advantages of major countries to promote common development.Fifth,to strengthen transnational technical cooperation and optimize the export structure.Sixth,focus on key technological breakthroughs to enhance export competitiveness.Seventh,to prevent trade protection from following the trend and create a favorable trade environment.Eighth,deepening high-tech cooperation and stabilizing geopolitical relations promote each other.Ninth,the combination of government,industry,university and Research to promote technological innovation cooperation in a pragmatic manner.Tenth,comprehensively raise the level of high-tech cooperation through collaborative innovation.