Research On Interaction Mechanism And Governance Of Land Leverage Based On Real Option Model

After the subprime mortgage crisis,the sustained increase of land leverage(the ratio of land price to housing price)worldwide has aroused widespread concern and the interaction mechanism between land leverage and real estate market has been an intense interest of research in the field of real estate research.In pace with wide application of real option theory in real estate market,it has become a common understanding that land leverage is an important factor affecting housing supply.Though land leverage has made rich achievements in modelling and empirical research of micro-data,key issues such as macro interaction mechanism,micro interaction mechanism,land leverage governance still needs to be studied on in a more systematic way.Urgent topics to be considered mainly pertain to the lack of research towards the dual transmission mechanism of land leverage,the compound options in the process of land development,and the land leverage governance based on combinatorial auction,all of which lead to the insufficient explanatory power on the role of land leverage in dynamic evolution of housing market.Based on the above analysis and following the research path of "macro-modeling-micro-validation-mechanism optimization",this dissertation proceeds from the theoretical proposition of "land leverage mechanism and governance based on real options",integrates real options,survival analysis,auction and other relative theories,and systematically analyses the role of land leverage in the evolution of the real estate market.The main innovations of this dissertation are as follows:Firstly,at the macro level,breaking through the limitation of single mechanism through cost transmission,it explores the hidden connection between increase of land leverage and extension of development lag and reveals the cost-plus-development-lag double transmission mechanism of land leverage in the evolution of real estate market which enhances explanatory power of land leverage to housing prices from 8% to 27%.Secondly,at the micro level,it extends land development process from single process to continuous process under uncertain circumstances and confirms that the process of land development embodies a typical compound option,This extension overcomes the drawbacks of applying traditional single option model to competitive multi-nodes development process and shows better explanatory ability in the empirical test.Finally,at the governance level,breaking through the limitations of the traditional sealed auction mechanism,it develops land leverage governance model based on the two-stage self-sustaining auction model which expands the application scope of combinational auction model in highly regulated land market and corrects the defects of traditional sealed auction mechanism.It confirms that self-sustaining auction mechanism is better than the traditional auction mechanism and provides applicable solutions for resolving high land leverage problem.The overall policy recommendations of this dissertation are as follows : policymakers should not ignore the negative effect of exorbitant land leverage on the real estate market and it is inadequate to control housing price from the demand side solely,which highlights the importance of structural reform from the land supply side.It is necessary to incorporate land leverage control into the overall policy framework of real estate regulation,with emphasis on premium control,start-up node control and optimization of bidding mechanism.