| Leverage is an important instrument to promote economic growth,while it is also a financial act,excessive debt without the support of social output maybe cause the debt crisis and instability of macroeconomic.The global financial crisis triggered by the U.S.subprime mortgage crisis kicked off the problem of debt leverage.An important reason for the outbreak of this crisis was the excessive leverage of credit based on asset securitization,which not only affected the financial institutions,but also quickly transmitted the negative impact to the real economy.In order to alleviate the damage caused by the financial crisis,a series of measures to stimulate economic recovery have caused the plight of Chinese high corporation's leverage.Facing the pressure of downward and structural transformation of the economy,the high level of debt leverage has become a prominent problem of China's economic development.In addition to the increase in the total amount of corporate debt and the growth rate,the corporation's debt problem also presents structural characteristics.This structural difference is not only reflected in the corporate capital structure,but also as an imbalance between ownership,industry,and region.In addition,the high corporate debt leverage and the downward economic growth show obvious "counter-cyclical" characteristics,which undoubtedly increases the possibility of economic instability.Existing researches of corporate debt leverage,either from the macro environment or the micro environment,rarely systematically analyzes the two parts.Therefore,the systematic study of corporate debt leverage has important theoretical and practical significance.This article takes corporate debt as the research object,according to the path of corporate debt—the influencing factors of corporate debt leverage—high corporate leverage and macroeconomic stability.This article focuses on the following topics: the first,to sort out and review the existing relevant literature at home and abroad.The second,analyzing the characteristics of China's corporation debt,and talks the structural problems of debt leverage.The third,using fixed-effect model to empirically analyze the influencing factors of debt leverage in micro-enterprises,and comparing the differences between the state-owned companies and real estate companies.The fourth,starting from the "counter-cyclical" nature of debt leverage ratio and economic growth,establishing a theoretical analysis model of debt leverage and economic growth,and using the TVP-VAR model to capture the dynamic relationship between corporate debt leverage and economic growth.The fifth,taking the real estate market as an example,analyzing the impact of high corporate leverage on asset prices.The sixth,through a horizontal comparison,analyzing the actions of countries that have experienced economic crises in the past(the United States and Japan)in responding to corporate debt problems.The following points are the main conclusions of the article:1.Chinese corporation's leverage is characterized by a rapid increase in volume with obvious structural characteristics.After 2008,the debt leverage ratio of China's corporation sector has shown an upward trend in static levels and dynamic changes.Compared with other economies in the world,the debt leverage ratio of the corporate sector is also significantly higher than the other countries in the same period.At the same time,Chinese corporation's leverage also shows obvious structural differences.This structural difference is reflected in six aspects: First,the non-financial corporate sector has the highest debt leverage ratio of the entire real economy.The second is the difference reflected in the higher debt leverage ratio of state-owned enterprises than non-state-owned enterprises;the third is the industry difference,which the debt leverage ratio of real estate,construction,and energy and chemical industries is higher than the other industries.The fourth is regional differences,manifested by the imbalance of debt leverage in the east,middle,and west.The fifth is the differences in financing structures,which is the debt leverage of nonlisted companies are higher than listed companies.The sixth is the difference in financing terms,the proportion of current liabilities is too high,and short-term debt financing is the main preference of external financing for listed companies,the problems of liquidity risks and maturity mismatches deserve attention.2.The macro-micro environment has a significant impact on the debt leverage of micro-enterprises,and the company's profitability is a stabilizer for adjusting the leverage of micro-enterprises.Macro-environment,financial markets,and corporate operating factors all have a significant impact on micro-enterprise debt leverage.Among them,the macro environment and financial market factors have different impacts on different ownership and enterprises in different industries,and the impact of the company's own operation factors on debt leverage does not show significant differences due to the sub-sample analysis.Among them,increasing corporate profitability has a significant impact on reducing micro-enterprises debt leverage.This article analyzes the data of China's A-share listed non-financial companies from 2007 to 2018,using a fixed-effects model empirically demonstrates the impact of macro-environment,financial markets and corporate operating factors on microenterprise debt leverage.In general,the macro environment has a significant impact on changes in corporate debt leverage ratios,economic stability and sufficient liquidity are conducive to increasing the willingness of enterprises to expand reproduction,which has a positive impact on corporate debt leverage.Financial market factors have a significant impact on corporate debt leverage ratios.The greater the financial institution's support for the real economy,the stronger the company's ability to obtain debt financing.The increase in the non-performing loan ratio of commercial banks has led to the contraction of credit scale and indirectly negatively affected corporate debt leverage.This effect relationship indicates the dependence of corporate debt financing on bank credit funds.The operation indicators of enterprises have a significant impact on changes of corporate debt leverage ratios.Profitability and leverage ratios have a negative correlation,and this negative correlation is the most significant of all influencing factors.Fund liquidity and leverage ratios have a negative correlation.The size and maturity of the company and the leverage ratio have a negative correlation,and the degree of corporate financialization and the leverage ratio have a positive correlation.Considering the structural characteristics of China's corporate debt leverage,the article conducts a comparative analysis of the ownership and industry attributes of the sample enterprises.The analysis results show that the influence of the company's own operating indicators on the debt leverage has not changed significantly due to the discussion of the sub-samples,which indicates that improving corporate profitability has a significant effect on reducing corporate debt leverage.For enterprises of different ownerships,the macroeconomic environment has a greater degree of impact on nonstate-owned enterprises,while the effect on state-owned enterprises is not obvious,which indirectly reflects the greater dependence of non-state-owned enterprises on their production and operation and financing strategies on the macroeconomic environment.and the debt leverage of state-owned enterprises reflects more "non-marketization" factors.Financial market factors have a greater impact on the debt leverage of stateowned enterprises,mainly manifested by the crowding-out effect of financial leverage on debt financing of non-state-owned enterprises,and financial institutions more inclined to invest funds in state-owned enterprises.For enterprises in different industries,the macro environment has a greater degree of impact on manufacturing and other industries,but it has not shown a significant impact on the real estate industry.The possible reasons are external policy factors and the high leverage attribute of the real estate industry itself.Financial market factors have a positive impact on the debt leverage of real estate companies.It can be inferred that the increase in the debt leverage ratio of real estate companies is related to financial leverage and capital flow to real estate.3.Macro corporate debt leverage ratio is negatively correlated with economic growth and has a long-term nature.This article uses the TVP-VAR model to demonstrate that the impact of economic growth and corporate debt leverage are negative effects,that is,the macroeconomic environment is better,which is conducive to reducing the debt leverage ratio of the corporation sector,and this negative impact is more obvious in the medium and long term,which means that the current “low-growth” economic environment will promote the rise of corporate debt leverage,and this effect will continue in the long run.Facing the pressure of economic downturn and transformation,the process of “deleveraging” has a long way to go.The marginal contribution of the empirical results is to prove that there is a divergence in the impact of economic growth on the debt leverage ratio of macro and micro corporations.The specific manifestation is that economic growth has a negative impact on the macro corporations' debt leverage and a positive impact on t micro corporations' debt leverage.The reasons for this divergence are explained from three aspects: the difference in the rate of return on assets,the economic cycle,and the soft budget constraints.This deviation also precisely illustrates the structural problem of Chinese corporations' debt leverage.4.High leverage drives up house prices,“stabilizing leverage” and “controlling house prices” have a long way to go.Based on the fact that “debt leverage” and “housing price” have both risen in recent years,this article analyzes the impact of the corporations' debt leverage and its lag-term on the housing price index by establishing a time series model.The empirical results found that the rise of corporations' debt leverage has a sustained and significant positive impact on the rise of housing price index(the lag is still significant in the six periods),that is,the current high debt leverage ratio will promote the rise of the housing price index,which maybe promote the fermentation of asset price bubbles.At the policy level,attention needs to be paid to debt risks and systemic financial risks that may result from the continued rise in asset prices.On the other hand,empirical results show that the effect of corporate debt leverage on the housing price index has a decreasing effect,so reducing the corporate debt leverage ratio has a long-term effect on reducing housing prices,and the regulation and control results are more significant in the short term.Based on a systematic analysis of Chinese corporations' debt leverage,the article puts forward the following suggestions: Firstly,the structural problems of Chinese corporations' debt leverage require structural measures.The core problem is to steadily deal with major structural contradictions on the premise of stabilizing macro total leverage.Secondly,promoting corporations to enhance their own profitability and improve the quality of their main business.Keeping debt leverage stable from the inside of corporations is the essence of solving the problem of debt leverage.Thirdly,there is still a long way to go in terms of “controlling leverage”,“stable growth”,and “risk prevention”.Keeping a reasonable and stable leverage plays an important role in maintaining macroeconomic stability.Only by shaping a stable economic and financial environment and promoting effective financial services to the real economy can we help the sustainable and healthy development of the corporation sector,and achieve a virtuous circle of corporation development and economic stability.The main innovations of this article are reflected in the following three aspects:The first is to broaden the research horizons and systematically analyze Chinese corporation's leverage in terms of aggregate characteristics,ownership characteristics,industry characteristics,regional characteristics,and capital structure characteristics,fully explaining the structure of corporate debt leverage and its contradictions.The second is the integration of influencing factors,which comprehensively analyzes and compares the effects of macro-environment,financial markets and business operations on micro-enterprise debt leverage ratios,and analyzes the differences in influencing factors of corporate debt leverage in different ownerships and industries through sample grouping.The third is to select economic growth and asset prices as representative indicators of macroeconomic stability,and analyzes the impact of corporation's high debt leverage on macroeconomic stability.Analyzing the relationship between macro-micro corporation's debt leverage and economic growth from the theoretical and empirical aspects,explaining the fact that the macro-micro corporation's leverage is divergent;Analyzing the impact of high debt leverage on housing price index,and the short-term and long-term effects,providing suggestions for controlling debt leverage. |
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