Financial Leverage And Financial Security From The Perspective Of Macroeconomic Stability

This paper is based on the study of macro leverage ratio and take the current financial deleveraging as the entry point.It analyzes the influence of financial leverage growth and financial leverage fluctuation on financial security,and analyzes the theoretical mechanism of financial leverage splitting the financial leverage structure to determine the impact of important factors on financial security.Because in the previous analysis,most researchers only considered the overall level of financial leverage,instead they ignored the structures of financial leverage,and generally only conducted unilateral analysis of the impact of financial leverage on macroeconomic growth or asset price stability.This article will divide the financial leverage into various parts,screening out the most significantly impacted factors.It will analyze the impact on economic growth and financial stability so as to judge the impact of financial leverage objectively and comprehensively.Combined with the basic situation of the financial market in China,this paper calculates the financial leverage level from the macro perspective by measuring the debt end scale of financial institutions,and disassembles different kinds of liabilities.From the perspective of macro-stability,financial security is focused on the stable development of macro economy and the stability of financial markets.By using VAR and GARCH models,this paper demonstrates the influence of the growth and fluctuation of financial leverage on financial security,and selects the most important factors affecting financial security by splitting the structure of financial leverage.The empirical results show that:1)Financial leverage growth has an evident positive impact on macroeconomic growth,while it has an evident negative impact on financial market stability.2)In financial leverage structure,growth due to interbank liabilities,off-balance-sheet financing,and interbank certificates of deposit including bond issuance has the most significant impact on financial security.3)Increased volatility of financial leverage both exert negative impact on macroeconomic growth and financial market stability.