Research On Vulnerability Of Rural Households'Poverty In China And Poverty Reduction Effects

Poverty has always been the focus on long-term attention in different research areas such as development economics.statistics,sociology,politics and so on,which is the permanent theme with the development of human society.Poverty alliviation is the ideal of human society's diligent development,and it is also the long-term goal of all countries in the world.As one of the countries with a large number of poverty population in the world,since the reform and opening up,the Chinese government has made poverty alleviation and development a top priority of the country's overall development strategy,and it has formulated a series of practical support policies for poor areas and people.The poverty population has been reduced on a large scale,and the cause of poverty reduction has achieved world-renowned achievements.Of course,the huge achievements of poverty reduction are measured by static poverty standards,and poverty alleviation is a dynamic process.After the absolute poverty alleviation,low-income groups may return to poverty due to various reasons,or even fall into the vicious circle of"poverty trap".The problem of dynamic poverty is a widespread phenomenon in human society.The root cause lies in the high vulnerability of rural households to poverty and their poor ability to resist risks.Poverty vulnerability is an indicator of future poverty and is forward-looking.The traditional poverty indicators only utilize the current welfare level as the standard for defining poverty,and poverty vulnerability focuses on whether the future welfare level of individuals or households can be maintained above the poverty standard.The traditional poverty measurement lacks predictability and dynamicity,which restricts the efficient use of poverty alleviation resources and the effective play of poverty reduction measures.Using poverty vulnerability indicators as an effective form of poverty alleviation,which is an effective form to break the constraint.Therefore,it is of great theoretical and practical significance to study the long-term poverty reduction effects of poverty reduction measures in China from the perspective of poverty vulnerability.Based on the dual perspectives of endogenous motivation and policy support,the paper uses the rural data of China Family Tracking Survey(CFPS)from 2010 to 2016 to incorporate non-agricultural employment,non-cognitive ability,rural minimum living security and poverty vulnerability into a unified analysis framework to analysize the poverty vulnerability of rural households in China.The full paper mainly carried out research work in four aspects:First,learning from the VEP method,using feasible generalized least squares(FGLS),in different poverty line standards and 50%fragility line to measure the poverty vulnerability of rural households in China.Then,we analysis the overall characteristics of poverty vulnerability and the relationship between poverty vulnerability and poverty.Finally,according to the causes of poverty vulnerability,we decompose it.The impact of non-agricultural employment on poverty vulnerability of rural households,and heterogeneity analysis based on different risk types and different types of non-agricultural employment.Further,from the perspective of income levels and income inequality,we explore the mechanism by which non-agricultural employment affects rural households'vulnerability to poverty;third,we use the principal component analysis method to construct non-cognitive ability total indicators,and analyze the non-cognitive ability to rural households' poverty vulnerability.The impact of non-cognitive abilities on rural households'vulnerability to poverty from five aspects:conscientiousness,extraverson,agreeableness,openness,and euroticism;in addition,from social capital,education and non-agricultural employment,we analysis the mechanism of non-cognitive ability affecting the poverty vulnerability of rural households;fourth,we explore the poverty reduction effect of rural minimum living security based on the perspective of poverty vulnerability,and to reduce rural low living security for different risk types of households Heterogeneity analysis of the poverty effect;Finally,we study the mediator effect of rural minimum living security on household poverty vulnerability,and on this basis,the path choices to alleviate the poverty vulnerability of farmers are proposed.from the perspective of stimulating endogenous motivation and relying on policy support.Through the above research work,this paper draws the following main conclusions:First,Chinese rural households are susceptible to the impact of risk shocks and lack the ability to resist risk shocks,which is prone to the phenomenon of "poverty-out of poverty-back to poverty",however,with time over time,the poverty vulnerability of rural households in China has gradually been declined,whether it is the national poverty line,the US $ 1.9 poverty line or the US $ 3.1 poverty line.There is a close connection between poverty vulnerability and poverty.The deep poverty households hold a higher degree of poverty vulnerability,and the higher the level of poverty vulnerability,the more likely they are to fall into poverty in the future.The poverty vulnerabilities of rural households in China are mostly caused by income fluctuations.Therefore,compared with low-average vulnerabilities(LM),high-variability vulnerabilities(HV)dominate the poor rural households in China.Second,non-agricultural employment as a whole can significantly reduce the poverty vulnerability of rural households,and this conclusion has also passed the robustness test.By dividing different poverty groups,this effect is effective for temporary poverty groups and has no significant effect on chronic poverty groups,which is related to the inherent characteristics of chronic poverty groups.In addition,for different types of non-agricultural employment,migrant workers can significantly reduce the probability of families falling into poverty in the future,while non-agricultural management has no significant effect on poverty reduction.We found that non-agricultural employment is mainly to reduce the poverty vulnerability of families by increasing income levels and weakening income uncertainty by further research.Third,Improving non-cognitive ability is an effective way to reduce the poverty vulnerability of rural families.After endogenous treatment and robustness test,the research conclusion is still valid.Heterogeneity analysis display that conscientiousness,openness and euroticism in the five dimensions of non-cognitive ability have a significant negative impact on the poverty vulnerability of farmers;with the quantile of vulnerability increasing.The role of non-cognitive ability in alleviating rural households' vulnerability to poverty first increases and then decreases.In addition,this paper finds that non-cognitive ability have an indirect impact on rural households' vulnerability to poverty through social capital,human capital,and non-agricultural employment.Fourth,the current rural Dibao system has no effect on playing its due role in reducing poverty,but it will increase the possibility of households falling into poverty in the future,and this conclusion has passed a variety of robustness tests.By classifying households according to the two-stage poverty status,it was found that rural minimum living security mainly increase the poverty vulnerability of households in poverty during the reporting period.A closer examination of the underlying mechanism reveals that rural Dibao has a significant positive impact on rural households' poverty vulnerability mainly through the welfare dependence effect,private transfer payment crowding-out effect and family subjective social status settlement effect.The main marginal contribution of this article is as follows:First,from the perspective of pre-poverty prediction,non-agricultural employment,non-cognitive ability,rural minimum living security and poverty vulnerability are integrated into a unified analysis framework to comprehensively analysis the long-term Poverty reduction effect.Second,the existing research on poverty vulnerability focuses on the traditional human capital field,excluding non-cognitive abilities such as social adaptability and motivation,which causes deviations in the evaluation of human capital.This paper constructs a general indicator of non-cognitive abilities.Empirical analysis of the impact of non-cognitive ability on rural households' vulnerability to poverty.The third is that this article does not only focus on the causal effect of precise poverty alleviation measures on the poverty vulnerability of rural families,but further to explore the mechanism behind it.The poverty alleviation measures formulated and perfected accordingly have higher legitimacy and agreement.In short,the research in this paper consists of two modules:one is to measure the poverty vulnerability of rural households in China and analyze their overall characteristics;the other is to evaluate the long-term poverty reduction effects of the three precise poverty alleviation measures based on the measurement.Based on the analysis of the above research content,combined with the current status of poverty,from the perspective of promoting non-agricultural employment,improving non-cognitive ability and improving the rural minimum living security system,put forward policy recommendations to effectively alleviate the poverty vulnerability of rural households.The research conclusion of this article indicates that when the battle against poverty is achieved a full victory in 2020,the main direction of China's poverty alleviation work should be changed from static poverty to dynamic poverty,and vulnerable households should be as the main target of anti-poverty work,so as to solve the difficulties of basic needs turned to improving the ability to cope with risk shocks,resolutely curb the occurrence of poverty,and consolidate the existing results of poverty alleviation,with expect to providing a quantitative basis for the government to design a satisfactory "after 2020" rural poverty alleviation policy and formulation.