Poverty Vulnerability Of Rural Residents In China

Since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China(CPC),China has made steady progress in combating poverty and made remarkable achievements.At the national poverty alleviation commending conference held on February 25,2021,President Xi Jinping pointed out that China has achieved comprehensive victory in the fight against poverty.By current standards,all of the 98.99 million rural residents living in poverty have been lifted out of poverty,832 poverty lines have been lifted,and 128,000 poor villages have been listed on the poverty list.Regional poverty as a whole has been resolved,thus accomplishing the arduous task of eliminating absolute poverty.China's achievements in poverty alleviation have also made great contributions to global poverty reduction.According to the relevant standards of the World Bank,China has contributed more than 70% to global poverty reduction,making it the first country in the world to achieve the poverty reduction target set by the UN Millennium Development Goals.However,the task of poverty reduction in China is still arduous.Preventing and reducing the risk of returning to poverty has become one of the most realistic and urgent challenges among all the challenges.Most poor people lack their own development capacity.Once faced with a large negative impact or consumption fluctuations,those who have been lifted out of poverty will easily return to poverty.By March 2020,nearly 2 million of China's people who had been lifted out of poverty were at risk of returning to poverty,and some of them needed to be lifted out of poverty through basic security.The Central Conference also noted the importance of poverty reduction.In 2017,General Secretary Xi Jinping pointed out when attending the Sichuan Delegation Review Meeting of the Fifth Session of the 12 th National People's Congress that “it is equally important to prevent the return to poverty and continue to fight against it”.In March 2020,General Secretary Xi Jinping explicitly called for “accelerating the establishment of monitoring and supporting mechanisms to prevent the return to poverty”at the Forum on Poverty Reduction in a Decisive Battle.At the same time,due to the great fragility of the rural economy and the limited coverage of the basic security,under the impact of negative impacts such as diseases and natural disasters,non-poor families may also fall into poverty in the future.As of March 2020,there are still nearly 3 million marginalized people in China at risk of poverty,with a high probability of falling into poverty in the future.Therefore,in the context of the realization of all poverty alleviation under the current standard in China by2020,the poverty alleviation target will face a strategic shift,from poverty management to poverty prevention and control.From the perspective of poverty prevention and control,the policy objective will be changed from the documented poor groups to the groups that may fall into poverty in the future.Therefore,the accurate identification of the population likely to fall into poverty in the future is conducive to the effective implementation of poverty alleviation policies.However,the traditional poverty standard based on income ignores the problem of future risks and cannot be combined with the long-term mechanism of poverty alleviation.As a result,poverty alleviation resources cannot effectively prevent the phenomenon of returning to poverty,resulting in poverty vulnerability.At the same time,the traditional poverty standard also ignores the part of the group that was not poor before but may fall into poverty in the future,while the poverty vulnerability can make up for the deficiency of the poverty standard by predicting the probability of poverty,which can feed back the dynamic information of poverty and is forwardlooking.Therefore,the measurement of poverty vulnerability is conducive to identifying the groups that may fall into poverty in the future,so as to improve the pertinence of poverty alleviation policies.At the same time,for rural residents,among all the risks that lead to poverty,disease risk is the biggest risk of poverty that this group faces.Poverty alleviation in rural areas is always faced with the challenge of poverty caused by disease and returning to poverty due to disease.According to a survey conducted by the Poverty Allowance Office of the State Council in 2015,among China's poor rural residents,42% returned to poverty due to illness,20% due to natural disasters,10% due to education,8% due to weak labor ability,and 20% due to other reasons.In addition,the proportion of families falling into poverty due to illness has also been increasing in recent years.In 1998,the proportion of families falling into poverty due to illness accounted for only 22% of the total poverty,but it has remained above 42% since 2015.Therefore,how to reduce the risk of rural residents returning to poverty due to disease is related to the success of poverty alleviation work.Therefore,this paper will measure the poverty vulnerability of rural residents in China from the perspective of returning to poverty due to disease,so as to identify the group of rural residents who will fall into poverty in the future due to disease.At the same time,as for the measurement of poverty vulnerability,most of the existing literature defines whether to fall into poverty in the future by absolute poverty,which is not consistent with the reality of the transition from poverty to relative poverty in China.The country's 98.99 million rural residents living below the poverty line have all been lifted out of poverty under current poverty standards,Xi said at a national poverty alleviation ceremony held on Feb 25,2021.The achievement of the goal means that the absolute poor population calculated by current poverty standards will statistically disappear.Based on the goal of “winning the battle against poverty resolutely and establishing a long-term mechanism to solve relative poverty”,the poverty pattern in China began to transform from absolute poverty to relative poverty.Therefore,in order to conform to the development law of poverty patterns in China,it is necessary to measure poverty vulnerability in combination with relative poverty standards,which is conducive to the formulation of more targeted poverty reduction measures.The measurement of poverty vulnerability from the point of view of poverty due to disease can effectively identify the future groups trapped in poverty due to disease.How diseases,especially major ones,lead to poverty in rural households in the future,then,is an issue that needs further research.The reason to study the transmission path of the impact of major diseases on poverty vulnerability is that major diseases generally have longer treatment cycle,higher medical costs,and even reduce the life expectancy of individuals and the total lifetime income,which is an important reason for families to return to poverty due to illness.The study of this pathway can help us to understand the channels through which major diseases affect poverty vulnerability,so that targeted measures can be taken to block this pathway and provide empirical reference for the formulation of policies to reduce future poverty induced by diseases.After analyzing the transmission path of major diseases affecting future poverty,the author further considers whether the existing poverty reduction strategies can reduce the probability of rural families falling into poverty due to disease in the future.How effective is poverty reduction for families hit by major diseases? Are there differences in the effect of poverty reduction among different income groups and groups of different ages? Through what influence mechanism is the vulnerability of poverty affected? Accordingly,this paper further studies the role of the new rural cooperative medical care and social capital in alleviating the future poverty of rural families due to illness.The reason for selecting these two strategies is that the countermeasures for alleviating poverty caused by disease can be divided into formal strategies and informal strategies at present,and the new rural cooperative medical care system and social capital are the typical representatives of these two strategies.The new rural cooperative medical care system is the most important form of medical care for rural residents.Informal strategies are mainly family social capital,such as borrowing from acquaintances,to pay for the part that is not covered by health insurance.Through empirical analysis of the role of NRCMS and social capital in alleviating poverty vulnerability,this paper can put forward the idea of institutional arrangement and policy adjustment for the implementation of the current rural anti-poverty strategy.By making anti-poverty policies,poverty can be prevented before it occurs,and then the effectiveness of anti-poverty policies can be improved.In order to explore the above series of core issues,this paper mainly focuses on five aspects for analysis.First,from the perspective of poverty caused by illness,the theoretical basis for the construction of poverty vulnerability index is sorted out,laying a theoretical foundation for the measurement of poverty in the future;Second,the China Family Panel Studies(CFPS)micro panel data from 2010 to 2018,through because of sickness poor Chinese point of view of poverty vulnerability index,the rural family in the future due to illness to measure the probability of falling into poverty,and join in the vulnerability of poverty measure based on the relative poverty standard of “relatively” thought,also adopted the revised FGT index measure poverty vulnerability and the breadth and depth of;Thirdly,from the perspectives of economic burden,labor burden and psychological burden,the transmission path of major diseases affecting poverty vulnerability is analyzed.At the same time,the path of major diseases affecting current poverty is analyzed and compared with the path affecting poverty vulnerability.Fourth,it analyzes whether rural residents' participation in NRCMS can effectively alleviate poverty vulnerability and poverty incidence,especially in the face of severe disease impact,and further analyzes whether NRCMS has differentiated poverty reduction effects on groups of different income groups and age groups,and analyzes its influence mechanism.Fifth,as an informal strategy to deal with poverty caused by disease,social capital's effect on reducing poverty vulnerability and incidence of poverty is also worth further study,and whether social capital's effect on poverty reduction is significant in the event of a major disease shock.Specifically,the main work and conclusions of this study are as follows:Firstly,the poverty vulnerability measurement method(VEP)is used to measure the poverty vulnerability from the perspective of poverty induced by disease.Considering the reality of the transition from absolute poverty to relative poverty in China,not only the absolute poverty standard is used to measure the poverty vulnerability,but also the relative poverty standard is applied to measure the poverty vulnerability.The relative poverty standard is defined based on the idea of "relative comparison" and is combined with the absolute poverty standard to form a weak relative poverty line.Secondly,the revised FGT index is used to measure the breadth and depth of poverty vulnerability.In order to compare with the future poverty situation of poverty vulnerability,this chapter also analyzes the breadth and depth of poverty incidence.The measure was calculated using CFPS tracking survey data from 2010 to2018.The measurement results show that the incidence rate of absolute poverty vulnerability of rural residents in China basically shows a trend of decline year by year,while the incidence rate of weak relative poverty vulnerability basically shows a trend of steady fluctuation.The poverty vulnerability gap ratio based on the weak relative poverty line is larger than that based on the absolute poverty line.Secondly,the paper analyzes the impact of major diseases on the poverty vulnerability and poverty incidence of rural families from the perspective of returning to poverty due to disease,and finds that the increase of the possibility of suffering from major diseases will increase the probability of rural families being in poverty vulnerability and poverty incidence.The economic effect of major diseases on the vulnerability to poverty is greater than that on the incidence of poverty,regardless of the measurement method based on weak relative poverty or absolute poverty.The empirical analysis of the intermediate transmission channels shows that,firstly,from the perspective of economic burden,major diseases will promote the increase of direct economic burden of rural families,and promote the possibility of poverty at the present stage.Major diseases will promote the improvement of the indirect economic burden of rural families,and promote the improvement of poverty vulnerability and poverty incidence probability,and the indirect economic burden has a greater economic effect on the incidence of poverty at the present stage.Second,from the perspective of labor burden,major diseases will have a significant inhibiting effect on work participation and working hours.The reduction of work participation and working hours will increase the possibility of rural families in poverty vulnerability and poverty incidence,and these two channels have a greater economic effect on poverty vulnerability.Major illnesses increase the likelihood of poverty by reducing the likelihood of working outside the home.Third,from the point of psychological burden,major disease leads to loss of cognitive function and negative emotions,to rural households produce positive influence on incidence of poverty vulnerability and poverty,and the channels for poor effect is bigger,the fragility of the economy while attention to loss is not a disease influence the effects of poverty in rural households.Thirdly,it analyzes the effect of the new rural cooperative medical care on alleviating poverty caused by disease.The results showed that the new rural cooperative medical care system had a significant effect on reducing future poverty,but had no significant effect on the incidence of poverty without severe disease impact.In the event of severe illness shock,NRCMP significantly reduced the incidence of future poverty in the family,but still did not have a significant effect on the incidence of poverty.Through the heterogeneity analysis of different income groups,it can be seen that with the increase of income level,the effect of the new rural cooperative medical care on poverty reduction is gradually increasing,and the effect of the new rural cooperative medical care on the poverty vulnerability and poverty incidence of the higher income group is more obvious.Through the analysis of families at different age stages,it can be seen that the NRCMS has a small or even reverse effect on the poverty vulnerability and incidence rate of elderly families,a vulnerable group.The analysis of the influence mechanism shows that,with the increase of income class,the NRCMS has a better promoting effect on the work participation and working hours of rural families,and a stronger promoting effect on the health status of higher income class,so it can have a stronger inhibiting effect on poverty vulnerability.The analysis of different age stages shows that with the increase of age,the role of NRCMS in promoting work participation of rural families is gradually weakened,and the role of NRCMS in improving health status is also gradually weakened,so that the role of NRCMS in poverty reduction of elderly families is relatively weak.Finally,we analyze the role of social capital in alleviating poverty caused by illness,and analyze the dynamic impact on current and future poverty respectively.The empirical results show that there are differences in the alleviating effects of various social capital on poverty caused by disease.First,from the perspective of social trust,social trust does not play a role in alleviating poverty regardless of the impact of serious illness.Secondly,from the perspective of social prestige,social prestige can significantly reduce future poverty and current poverty when there is no severe illness impact.Social prestige does not have a significant impact on poverty vulnerability and current poverty in the event of a major disease.Thirdly,from the perspective of social network,social network can significantly reduce future poverty and current poverty when there is no major illness shock.In the event of a major illness shock,social networks increase the probability of poverty vulnerability and reduce the likelihood of current poverty.Fourth,from the perspective of social participation,social participation can significantly reduce future poverty and current poverty when there is no major illness impact.In the event of a major disease,social engagement can have a mitigating effect on current and future poverty.In addition,the empirical results show that social networks have a promoting effect on poverty vulnerability,and this chapter also analyzes the influence mechanism.Critical illness shocks were found to increase the likelihood that families would receive financial assistance from relatives and friends,which would reduce the likelihood of families falling into poverty.However,since family and friends financial assistance also has to be repaid,family financial assistance may also increase the vulnerability of rural families to poverty if they are unable to increase their incomes and improve their financial situation in the future.Based on the above research conclusions,this paper mainly puts forward the following policy recommendations.First,the effect of the new rural cooperative medical care system on poverty reduction of vulnerable groups such as the lowest income group and the elderly group is small,and the vulnerable groups should be accurately targeted to determine the differentiated minimum payment line.Second,as medical expenses are an important channel leading to poverty,the scope of "compliant" medical expenses should be properly expanded,a dynamic adjustment mechanism should be established,and great efforts should be made to control the unreasonable growth of medical expenses with the reform of medical insurance payment mode as the main means.Third,in view of the strengthening effect of social networks on the vulnerability of poverty,it is necessary to promote the transfer of rural labor force to nonagricultural industries and increase the input of financial service supply in rural areas and poor areas.Fourth,in view of the effective inhibition effect of social participation on poverty vulnerability and poverty incidence,the supply of public cultural products and services should be increased,and the social participation degree of the poor groups should be strengthened.Fifth,we should further improve and improve the rural medical insurance based on the new rural cooperative medical care system,especially expand the coverage of diseases and give full play to the function of social security,so as to improve the health status of rural residents,reduce the burden of medical expenses for rural residents and avoid rural residents falling into the “poverty trap”.The innovation of this paper is mainly reflected in the following aspects:First,theoretical analysis: the formation mechanism of poverty vulnerability is systematically analyzed.This paper systematically analyzes the formation mechanism of poverty vulnerability,decomposes poverty vulnerability into income level and income fluctuation,and analyzes the main factors affecting each dimension.Specifically,this paper firstly conducts theoretical analysis on the formation reasons and measurement dimensions of poverty vulnerability,and systematically analyzes its formation mechanism.From the perspective of capacity poverty,poverty vulnerability is divided into two dimensions: income level and income fluctuation,and the factors affecting each dimension are analyzed respectively.The family income level is mainly affected by persistent income level and demographic characteristics variables,and the family income fluctuation is affected by risk shock,risk resistance ability,social support availability and demographic characteristics variables.The paper also analyzes the impact of rural residents' income structure on various dimensions of poverty vulnerability.By improving the theoretical analysis framework of poverty vulnerability measurement,it can provide theoretical support for the measurement of poverty vulnerability.Second,in the measurement method: improve the measurement method of poverty vulnerability.In this paper,poverty vulnerability is measured from the perspective of poverty due to disease,relative poverty standard is added to the definition of poverty line,and the revised FGT index is used to analyze the breadth and depth of poverty vulnerability,so as to combine it with the reality of China.To be specific,firstly,based on the reality that China's poverty pattern is changing from absolute poverty to relative poverty,the relative poverty standard is added to the definition of poverty standard,so as to obtain the poverty vulnerability including relative poverty,which can be combined with the current situation of China's future poverty reduction.Second,because of sickness poor Chinese is the main cause of the poor at the present stage in China,this article from the perspective of because of sickness poor Chinese to measure of poverty vulnerability,to get the family or individual in the future the possibility of falling into poverty because of illness,so can effectively identify because of sickness poor Chinese families,to take timely intervention measures to help reduce the possibility of poverty vulnerability.Finally,the revised FGT index based on the idea of weak relative poverty is used to analyze the breadth and depth of poverty and poverty vulnerability.The revised FGT index could combine the absolute and relative aspects of poverty and analyze the contribution of each component.Third,from the perspective of research: focus on the dynamic poverty reduction effect of poverty reduction strategies.While analyzing the effect of NRCMS and social capital on poverty reduction,this paper also pays attention to the effect of each strategy on current poverty and future poverty,that is,poverty vulnerability,reflecting the dynamic characteristics of poverty.Specifically,based on the dynamic characteristics of poverty,this paper evaluates the effects of existing strategies for alleviating poverty caused by disease,and mainly studies the mitigation effects of the new rural cooperative medical care system and social capital on poverty caused by disease.Analysis not only when the impact of rural residents suffer from a serious illness,new rural cooperative medical insurance and how social capital will affect poverty vulnerability that the future poverty,farmers will also be new vulnerability to poverty relief and social capital in the poverty rate is compared,pay attention to poverty dynamics,to discover the problems existing in the existing strategy.