Research On The Relationship Between China's Investment Structure And Economic Development

The process of investment is the process of social capital formation.The proportion of investment in different sectors,regions and industries of the national economy not only forms different types of investment structure,but also promotes the emergence of different types of economic structure to a large extent.Therefore,the adjustment of investment structure is an important reason for the fluctuation of economic structure.The imbalance of investment structure has become an important component of the imbalance of economic structure,which makes the optimization of investment structure to promote the upgrading of economic structure become an important content of sustainable and high-quality development of China's economy.In 2020,the NPC and CPPCC stressed that it is necessary to "make investment continue to play an effective role" and "focus on supporting the" two new and one heavy"construction,which not only promotes consumption and benefits the people's livelihood,but also adjusts the structure and increases the stamina.Thus,it clearly releases the signal of optimization of investment structure and transformation of investment direction,that is,we should continue to play the role of traditional infrastructure in the process of promoting new infrastructure construction,we should not stop the development of small investment projects in the process of cultivating large-scale investment projects,and in the process of increasing investment in the short-term,we should always pay attention to the long-term benefit play,result optimization and healthy development.Therefore,in the short term,investment is still an important means to support economic stability,but the long-term extensive investment mode leads to serious imbalance of investment structure,hinders the optimization of economic structure at the provincial level,and is not conducive to long-term high-quality economic development.Therefore,one of the challenges of China's economic policy-making,institutional reform and institutional supply construction is to prevent the deterioration of investment structure while continuing to play a role in promoting growth.However,the existing research literature is not enough to support or meet the actual needs.In other words,the existing research literature on the different dimensions of investment structure is not enough,the research conclusions are divergent,and lack of the view of the times.Based on this,this paper starts from four typical investment structures,namely,investment industrial structure,investment source structure,investment subject structure and investment use structure,respectively constructs the corresponding mathematical model or carries out theoretical analysis.On this basis,it constructs an econometric model for empirical test,and draws some useful conclusions.Of course,there are many angles or methods to divide the dimensions of investment structure.Combined with China's real economic problems,this paper selects four types of investment structure with systematic importance and extensive relevance to analyze.In the future research process,more aspects of investment structure will be further studied or discussed.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)Economic development is a comprehensive reflection of economic quality,economic growth and economic cycle.The quality of China's economy has reached a"reasonable range",but it has slowed down in recent years.The results of TVAR Model show that when the economic quality is in a "reasonable range",the downward adjustment tendency of economic quality and the "retarder effect" of economic cycle will hedge the "accelerator effect" of investment industrial structure,and the negative feedback cycle between economic growth and economic cycle will further inhibit the improvement of economic quality.With the improvement of the decoupling phenomenon between investment industrial structure and economic growth,the downward adjustment tendency of economic quality will be restrained,and the policy cost of stabilizing economic quality will be reduced.At present,China's tertiary industry investment and non tertiary industry investment has formed a multiplier effect.However,the pressure of stable economic growth since 2019 will continue.We need to compete for time with policies and exchange time for space,and allow the temporary slowdown of economic quality in exchange for long-term development.(2)The optimization of investment source structure is conducive to prevent and control investment stall and stabilize economic growth,which has urgent practical significance at the current stage.The proportion of direct financing in China has been low and stagnant for a long time,and the concentration of banking market has always been high.Firstly,this paper demonstrates the nonlinear influence of financial structure imbalance on the structure of investment sources through mathematical deduction,and based on the consistency principle of mathematical model and empirical model,the markov regime transfer model with time-varying transfer probability is adopted for empirical analysis.The results showed that:?In the system of investment source structure deterioration,the deepening of financial structure imbalance will further strengthen the deterioration trend of investment source structure.At this time,it is necessary to reduce the market concentration of banks.In the area of optimizing investment source structure,the deepening of financial structure imbalance is not conducive to the continuous optimization of investment source structure.At this time,we need to increase the proportion of direct financing;?The structural fluctuation has a self-stabilizing mechanism,which has the spontaneous tendency of fluctuating;?When the target weight of "stable growth"rises,the structure of investment source will deteriorate,and the positive economic policy is also an important factor that leads to the excessive dependence of investment demand on credit;?The large fluctuation of investment source structure is easy to lead to regime transfer.Therefore,on the basis of continuing to optimize the financial structure,China should focus on increasing the proportion of direct financing,strengthening the competitiveness of the banking market,and promoting the diversified development of the structure of investment sources.(3)The multiple time-varying causality among investors has not been fully revealed.Under the background of the new era,a certain investment guidance and regulation policy often only plays a role in a certain period.Therefore,it is necessary to test the existence of local causality.Based on the multiple time-varying causality model,this paper finds that private investment is the core of the structure of investment subject,and the structure of investment subject is unstable due to the lack of negative feedback mechanism;monetary and fiscal policy instrument variables will have varying degrees of adjustment and control on the structure of investment subject,among which,the fiscal expenditure expansion policy has the most comprehensive regulatory effect,and it is closely related to the quantitative goods.The monetary policy together drives the state-owned investment dynamics;the change of economic and financial environment will also cause changes in the structure of investors in varying degrees.Among them,the phenomenon that state-owned investment activities deviate from economic fundamentals exists for a long time and is only affected by the impact of bond market.Therefore,the embedded design of negative feedback loop of investment subject structure and the institutional supply of coordinated development of state-owned investment and economic fundamentals are important contents of investment structure optimization in the new era.(4)The long-term continuous rise makes the housing price level in absolute high level,whether it will fall back to the current stage of China's economy is of great significance.The results of IMS-AR model show that the housing price inertia is stable for a long time,but the foundation is fragile.The recent sharp rise in the price of housing and the slow growth of house prices indicate that the forced forward delivery housing bubble has increased probability.From the investment point of view,the TVEC model estimation results show that the real estate investment has broken through the threshold value at this stage,and the current fluctuation of house price and its inertia are only affected by their own early stage deviation.Among them,the fluctuation of house price will converge smoothly,while the inertial fluctuation of house price will converge in an oscillatory way.However,there is no definite long-term equilibrium relationship as the target path,convergence process and new equilibrium States may be inefficient and costly.Therefore,the current policy regulation should be committed to restoring the long-term equilibrium relationship and short-term volatility spillover mechanism between housing price and its inertia,investment and its structure,so that the release of dividend from the optimization of investment use structure can be a powerful support in the process of house price falling smoothly and inertia returning to rationality.Policy can be used to exchange time and create space with time,that is,delay at the cost of paying a certain policy cost.The price bubble is approaching to the critical point.Eventually,through the realization of the high-quality growth of the economy and the establishment of the long-term mechanism of the real estate market,the bubble of the house price will be digested rather than punctured.