Effect Of "Belt And Road" International Cooperation On National External Debt Risk Of Countries Along The "Belt And Road"

With the accumulation of international debt risk,the research on national debt has attracted the attention of academic and practical circles.As an informal institution,the influence of national cultural characteristics on the risk of national external debt has been gradually highlighted,which has attracted international attention.In the process of promoting the Silk Road Economic Belt and 21st Century Maritime Silk Road Initiative(the Belt and Road Initiative,BRI),how will the cultural characteristics of the "Belt and Road"(B&R)countries affect the risk of national external debt?How will the degree of international cooperation adjust the influence of culture on the country's external debt risk?Firstly,based on the theory of regional economic integration and resource allocation theory,and in response to the "Debt Trap",this paper applies the difference-in-difference(DID)model to explore the impact of international cooperation on a country's external debt risk and to assess the impact of BRI policies.Besides,it analyzes the impact of the degree of international cooperation on a country's external debt risk and further studies its underlying influencing mechanism.Furthermore,this paper analyzes the influence of cultural characteristics on the risk of national external debt from three aspects:social values,religion and linguistic diversity using the ordinary least square(OLS)method and propensity score matching(PSM)model.Moreover,the paper also makes an in-depth study of the mechanism and explores the ways of its potential influence,which provides empirical analysis and supplements the existing literatures from the informal institutional perspective.Finally,this paper summarizes the above research,and further explores the interactive effect of cultural characteristics and international cooperation on national external debt risk.The research results of this paper mainly include the following aspects:(1)The BRI is regarded as a quasi-natural experiment,and the difference-in-difference model is used to find that national external debt risk has been reduced after B&R countries participating in BRI.Meanwhile,the higher the degree of international cooperation is,the lower the national external debt risk is.From the perspective of mechanism,the B&R international cooperation could reduce the national external debt risk by promoting economic development.The financial development and financial structure of a country would affect the preventive effect of the degree of international cooperation on the national external debt risk.It is found that the higher the level of financial development is,the stronger the preventive effect of international cooperation on the risk of national external debt risk is.It also concludes that the more market-oriented the financial structure is,the stronger the preventive effect of international cooperation on the national external debt risk is.Through theoretical analysis and empirical evidence,this paper refutes the erroneous view of B&R "Debt Trap" theory.It provides empirical evidence for the international community to understand the B&R international cooperation,and advocates that B&R countries should strengthen international cooperation,pay attention to financial development and optimize financial structure from the perspective of national external debt risk.(2)The cultural characteristics of B&R countries affect the national external debt risk.This paper specifically measures cultural characteristics from three aspects:social values,religious cultural characteristics and linguistic diversity.The least square method and propensity score matching model are respectively used to get the following findings.Firstly,social values affect the external debt risk of B&R countries,among which uncertainty avoidance reduces the external debt risk of B&R countries,while individualism and short-term orientation increases the external debt risk of B&R countries.Secondly,religion cultural characteristics affect the external debt risk of B&R countries.The higher the degree of religious harmony,the lower the national external debt risk is.However,a higher religious diversity and religious checks and balances lead to religious conflicts within a country,thus increasing the national external debt risk.Finally,linguistic diversity affects the external debt risk of B&R countries.The empirical studies calculated the language diversity of countries based on the language pedigree classification from level 1 to level 6,which shows significant differences in the level of linguistic diversity among countries.Language diversity leads to poor communication and differences in values,leading to internal conflicts and ultimately increasing the risk of external debt.This paper puts forward some suggestions on the analysis and assessment of the external debt risk of B&R countries,including social values,religious cultural characteristics,and linguistic diversity.It provides an empirical analysis and supplement from the cultural perspective of the informal institution.(3)International cooperation can adjust the effect of cultural characteristics on the national external debt risk.The study finds that international cooperation not only promotes cross-cultural communication between countries but also reflects national inclusiveness and openness,so the degree of international cooperation moderates and alleviates the effect of different cultural characteristics on the national external debt risk.Specifically,firstly,the degree of international cooperation mitigated the impact of values on the national external debt risk.When the degree of international cooperation is high,the negative impact of individualism and short-term oriented values on the country's external debt risk is alleviated.At the same time,the positive impact of uncertainty avoidance on a country's external debt risk is also weakened.In conclusion,while international cooperation promotes the communication of different values,it also weakens the impact of social values on national external debt risk.In addition,the study shows that the negative impact of religious diversity on national external debt risk has been mitigated when the degree of international cooperation is high.At the same time,the positive influence of religious harmony on the external debt risk of the country is also weakened.Finally,it is found that when the degree of international cooperation is high,the negative impact of language diversification on the external debt risk of a country is also alleviated to a certain extent.The international cooperation concerned in this paper belongs to the formal institution of a country,while the cultural characteristics of a country are informal institution.By analyzing the moderating effect of the degree of international cooperation on the relationship between the cultural characteristics of a country and its national external debt risk,the research scope of the external debt risk of a country has been widened by studying the interaction between the formal and informal institution.