Research On Building FTA Network Among China And Countries Along The "Belt And Road" From The Perspective Of GVC

Exploring the establishment of a free trade area network between China and the countries along the “Belt and Road” from the perspective of the Global Value Chain(GVC)is an important proposition to promote the international circulation under the new development pattern of “dual cycles”.China's free trade area strategy emphasizes speeding up the construction of a high-standard free trade area network based on the periphery,radiating the "Belt and Road" and facing the world.Since 2020,faced with the hindrance of economic globalization and the stagnation of the multilateral trading system,the State Council executive meeting has emphasized the need to actively promote the signing of high-standard free trade agreements with more countries.The construction of a free trade area is an important strategy to deal with the complex world economic situation and uncertain risks,and it is also an important support for the international cycle under the new development pattern of "double cycle".China is one of the centers of GVC production,deeply embedded in GVC,not only benefits from the development of GVC,but also faces the risk of hindered or interrupted GVC operation.The construction of the free trade area network shoulders the important goal of achieving stable GVC operation and promoting GVC development.The establishment of a free trade area network between China and countries along the “Belt and Road” is an important path for the smooth construction of “Belt and Road” trade and an important support for reshaping the “Belt and Road” regional value chain.The core content of the free trade area network between China and the countries along the “Belt and Road” is the choice of target countries,path selection and model selection of the free trade area.The target countries,paths and models are woven into a "triad" high-standard free trade zone network.Based on this,this dissertation mainly conducts research from three aspects in sequence.Firstly,starting from the research on the laws of the relationship between free trade areas and global value chains,this dissertation focuses on the research of the theoretical models of the global value chain effects of free trade areas,the deep heterogeneity of bilateral free trade agreements and the effects on regional global value chains,the effects of the breadth of free trade areas on the restructuring of global value chains,and then summarize the law of the relationship between free trade areas and global value chains from both theoretical basis and empirical testing.Secondly,this dissertation applies statistical analysis methods to analyze the economic foundation of the countries along the “Belt and Road”,the foundation of global value chains,the foundation of economic linkages with China,and the foundation of the existing free trade area network,and then form a realistic basis for China and the countries along the "Belt and Road" to build a free trade area network.Finally,based on the research of theoretical laws and of realistic basis,this dissertation puts forward the path for China and the countries along the “Belt and Road” to build a free trade area network,constructs a comprehensive measurement index system based on the free trade area formation theory to select the core countries along the “Belt and Road”in building free trade area network,and then uses GTAP simulation analysis method to simulate the economic effects of different model choices between China and the core countries construct free trade areas,compare the economic effects of different models,and select the best free trade area model.The main conclusions of this dissertation are as follows:(1)The depth of bilateral free trade agreement has a positive impact on the global value chain linkages between the member countries,and the depth of investment-related provisions has a greater impact than the depth of trade-related provisions.The differences in the member countries also influnce the effect of bilateral free trade area on global value chain.The depth of bilateral free trade agreement between developed and developing countries and between developed countries has obvious promotional effects on the global value chain linkages between member countries,and the depth of bilateral free trade agreements between developing countries may not have a significant promoting effect.(2)The greater the breadth of free trade area network,the more it influences the country's global value chain to extend and change in length,thereby promoting the restructuring of the global value chain.The cumulative depth of all free trade agreements that a country has participated in affects the restructuring of global value chains.The effect of the cumulative depth of WTO-X provisions is greater than the effect of the cumulative depth of WTO+ provisions.(3)The realistic foundations of all regions and countries along the “Belt and Road” route show obvious heterogeneity.The overall performance of the realistic foundation of the East Asia and Central and Eastern Europe regions along the route is better than that of other regions,and all regions along the route show the similar characteristics that there exist individual countries in realistic foundation are significantly better than other countries in the same region.(4)The study puts forward that the path for China to build a free trade zone network with countries along the "Belt and Road" is "core-spoke,multi-layer concurrency".(5)Based on comprehensive calculations,the core countries that China and the countries along the “Belt and Road” build a free trade area network are Malaysia and Vietnam in Southeast Asia,India in South Asia,Turkey in West Asia and North Africa,Czech Republic and Poland in Central and Eastern Europe,Russia in Northeast Asia.,and Kazakhstan in central Asia.(6)GTAP model simulation analysis shows that the optimal model for building a free trade area between China and the core countries of the eight countries is a free trade area model that focuses on trade facilitation measures and is moderately deep.The value of this dissertation includes that:(1)Break through the traditional theoretical paradigm of trade and investment effects of free trade areas,incorporate contract incompleteness and company property rights into the theoretical framework of bilateral free trade areas,combine the specific investment attributes of intermediate products,and cut from the dual perspectives of value chain trade and value chain investment,this dissertation derives a theoretical model of the global value chain effect of the free trade area.(2)In previous studies,the different types of regional trade agreements were generally classified as a whole for research,ignoring the provisions heterogeneity in different types of regional trade agreements,and the differences in theoretical influence paths and empirical effects brought about by them.This dissertation analyzes the depth heterogeneity evolution of bilateral free trade agreements,compares them with other regional trade agreements,studies the theoretical mechanism between bilateral free trade agreements and global value chai ns,and conducts empirical analysis.(3)Improve the empirical model.This dissertation use the gravity model based on the global value chain and the World Bank trade agreement database to verify the deep heterogeneity of the bilateral free trade agreement and the regional global value chain linkage effect.(4)Define the breadth of free trade areas from the perspective of the network distribution of free trade areas,build a theoretical mechanism between the breadth of free trade areas and the restructuring of global value chains,and conduct empirical tests.This develops another important perspective for research on the relationship between free trade areas and global value chains.(5)Comprehensive consideration of the theories and laws between free trade areas and global value chain,the realistic basis of countries along the "Belt and Road",and the development strategy of China's high-standard free trade zones,conclude a path for constructing free trade area network between China and the countries alo ng the "Belt and Road".(6)Based on the perspective of influencing factors in the formation of free trade areas,construct indicator system to evaluate and select the core countries along the “Belt and Road” to build free trade area with China,and then select models of free trade areas.Finally,based on the research conclusions of this paper,it puts forward China's strategy of developing free trade areas in the context of global value chains,and countermeasures and suggestions for China and countries along the “Belt and Road” to build a network of free trade areas.This dissertation provide countermeasure reference for the target countries,paths,and model choices for China and the countries along the "Belt and Road" to build a free trade area network.