Research On The Construction Of Free Trade Area Network Under "The Belt And Road" Initiative

In terms of global slow growth and frequent trade frictions,"the Belt and Road"initiative can create demand for global market,promote world economic growth,and can be an effective way for China to cope with trade war."The Belt and Road"construction is a long-term and complex process,and the unimpeded trade is the key content of its initial construction,and the establishment of the free trade area can be its breakthrough.Since "the Belt and Road" initiative was put forward,it has become a hot issue in academic research in recent years.The existing literature has conducted in-depth research on the strategic connotation,spatial layout and cooperation potential of "the Belt and Road" initiative.With regard to international trade cooperation,the existing literature also analyzes how to promote smooth trade from the perspective of trade facilitation and free trade area.However,taking the countries along "the Belt and Road" initiative as a whole,there are relatively few studies on the construction of free trade area network,and empirical studies are even less.Therefore,this paper attempts to analyze the possibility of building a free trade network along "the Belt and Road" initiative.Then it analyzes the signing of free trade agreements between China and countries along "the Belt and Road" initiative and the current situation of trade network construction,summarizes the challenges and main problems to be solved in the establishment.In order to set a more reasonable simulation scenario for the free trade area network,this paper measures the reduction degree of tariff barriers and non-tariff barriers in the free trade agreements that China has signed.On this basis,combined with GTAP model,different simulation scenarios are set up,and policy simulation is carried out according to the different levels of the free trade area network to analyze and compare the economic effect.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)China's trade with countries along "the Belt and Road" initiative is highly complementary,and there is a huge space for trade cooperation.But at the same time,there are many problems,such as imbalance of trade pattern,single trade structure and small trade scale.(2)Chinese current trade agreements have reached a high standard of tariff reduction in goods and other aspects,but the reduction of non-tariff barriers is still relatively weak.Through the analysis of the tax reduction arrangement and provisions of the FTA,this paper makes a qualitative and quantitative research on the reduction degree of tariff and non-tariff barriers in the FTA,and then provides a reference for the scenario setting in the model(3)The free trade agreements signed by the regions along "the Belt and Road"initiative are separated from each other,showing the characteristics of fragmentation.The construction faces many challenges,such as high barriers to economic and trade cooperation,great differences in the development level of regional internal economic and political development,overlapping and staggered internal regional trade arrangements,and much difficulty in formulating free trade rules(4)By comparing the economic effects of "the Belt and Road" free trade area network in different situations,the reduction of tariff and non-tariff barriers can promote economic growth and promote bilateral trade,but in comparison,the economic effects brought by the reduction of non-tariff barriers are more significant than that of the tariff reduction.(5)At different levels of free trade area network construction,from just signing trade agreements between China and other countries,to all countries along "the Belt and Road" initiative into a unified regional trade system,the economic effect is also showing a shift from single benefit of China to the sharing of economic achievements of all countries."The Belt and Road" construction is a long-term process,and the long-term benefits will be far higher than the short-term benefits.According to the main research conclusions,this paper puts forward the policy suggestions to promote the construction of free trade area network:First,fully explore the trade complementarity,find common interests,release the trade potential;Second,strengthen the institutional cooperation with the countries along "the Belt and Road"initiative,further reduce the non-tariff trade barriers;Third,improve the trade openness,strive to build a high-standard free trade area network;Fourth,develop a set of free trade agreement standards;Fifth,gradually promote the construction of free trade area network in stages and pay attention to long-term cooperation.