The Systemic Risk Spillover Effect Of The Shadow Banking System In China

In 2008,the global economic and financial system was hit by the international financial crisis triggered by the sudden outbreak of the U.S.subprime mortgage crisis.Shadow banking,as one of the culprits,quickly became the focus of global economic development.At present,the real estate bubble,local government debt and shadow banking are three potential systemic risk points in China's financial system,while the Chinese shadow banking system with continuous expansion in recent years has gradually come into people's eyes.China's shadow banking mainly ACTS on the real economy,but actually has the name of banking business without the fact,and is free from supervision.Therefore,it brings certain risks to China in the process of financial innovation development and challenges regulators.This paper on China's shadow banking system risk spillover effects as the research object,using the combined research methods of normative analysis and empirical analysis,in this paper the financial system transmission system risk characteristics,causes,mechanisms,on the basis of the potential risks mainly choose three points of emphasis,this paper discusses the shadow banking,the analysis of the shadow banking system risk may cause the financial system,the mechanism of China's shadow banking causes and background,and respectively from the perspective of social financing scale and estimate the scale of the shadow banking official definition of shadow banking Angle.From the micro using GARCH model,and then the shadow banking risk spillover effect on the traditional commercial Banks.The empirical results show that the key to prevent systemic risks in the financial system is to strengthen supervision of shadow banking.In addition,from the macro perspective,VAR model is used to empirically analyze the impact of shadow banking scale changes on financial security index.The empirical results show that in the short term,the expansion of the shadow banking will promote the development of economy in degree,is conducive to financial stability,but in the long run,because of the shadow branch business financing cost is relatively high,prone to risks during the operation,the expansion of the shadow banking will highlight the negative effect on the economy,without effective supervision,gather,financial risk,in turn,affects the real economy.Finally,corresponding policy recommendations are put forward on financial risk prevention of shadow banking system.The innovation points of this paper are mainly shown in the following three aspects.First,calculate Va R and Co Va R on the basis of building GARCH,and calculate the risk spillover effect of shadow banking on traditional Banks.Secondly,the VAR model is used to empirically analyze whether the scale change of shadow banking in China will affect the financial stability.The empirical results can show the degree and duration of the impact of scale change on the financial stability index,so as to provide empirical evidence for the formulation of regulatory policies.The scale of shadow banking is estimated from the perspective of social financing scale and the definition scope of official shadow banking.Finally,this paper analyzes the mechanism of the shadow banking system risk and the key link of the shadow banking system risk in China.