| The General Secretary of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China Xi Jinping has repeatedly pointed out,the world today is undergoing major changes unseen in a century.In the era of major changes,risks are constantly deepening and alienating,which have a profound impact on the international situation,economic society and people's lives.In recent years,under the influence of global risk events such as stagnant global economic growth,geopolitical tensions,ecological and climate crises,international trade disputes,and the new crown pneumonia epidemic,the risks faced by countries and people around the world have gradually become frequent,rapid and sudden.With other characteristics,the perception,capture and management of risks has become more difficult than ever.Under the conditions of very close global economic and trade cooperation,risk events such as trade policies,debt crises,and regime changes in important economies will not only change their own national risk environment,but will also affect their negative effects spread to other countries across borders under the influence of economic globalization.Due to the differences in the political and economic systems and policies of countries around the world,the overall macro risk environment of a country,which is formed by the convergence of economic,financial and political risk factors,is quite different.Therefore,in the face of the turbulent international situation,the complex and sensitive geo-environment and the difficult recovery of the global economy,countries around the world need to deeply understand the changes,influencing factors and development trends of national risks,formulate a thorough national risk management plan,establish a complete national risk protection system,and study policies and policies to deal with changes in the risk environment of other countries,so as to face crises and changes in a strategic way.In a complete national risk protection system,commercial insurance is an indispensable key element.The unique nature of life insurance gives it the dual characteristics of providing risk protection and promoting the development of the real economy.It has a key role in economic and social development that cannot be replaced by other financial formats.Therefore,increasing the demand for life insurance in the market,expanding the capital scale of the life insurance industry,and giving play to the scale effect of life insurance capital can enable the life insurance industry to more effectively provide stable,comprehensive and high-quality risk protection and financial support for economic and social development.At the same time,it is also an indispensable and important magic weapon for all countries in the world to cope with changes in current risks and resolve risk challenges.After a long period of theoretical research and practical exploration,risk and insurancerelated theories have been fully demonstrated and improved,and the research on the factors affecting the demand for life insurance has formed a basic research framework and logic.Risk is the prerequisite for the existence of insurance.Insurance has the ability to resist and prevent risks.Therefore,the research on risk is the foundation of insurance theory and has the important value of expanding the boundary between risk and insurance theory.In the academic research on the influencing factors and effects of life insurance demand,scholars mainly analyze the life insurance consumption decisions of individuals or families from a micro perspective.Or research on factors that directly affect the demand for life insurance,such as macroeconomic indicators,social development level,population life span and aging.The research content of risk on the demand for life insurance mainly focuses on the insurable risk,and there are few researches on the demand for life insurance that take macrouninsurable risk as the influence factor.In this context,this article is based on risk management theory and insurance theory research,with life insurance demand as the core,and studies the impact of country risk on life insurance demand.The thesis uses a combination of theoretical research and empirical research,and the main research content is divided into seven parts.First,sort out and summarize the historical literature and related theories of the research on the influence factors of life insurance demand,the impact of exogenous uninsurable risks on life insurance demand,and the country risk research.Second,introduce national risk factors and absolute risk avoidance conditions into the insured's expected utility maximization model for theoretical model research.Third,apply the panel smooth conversion regression model to conduct empirical research on the panel data of 48 countries around the world from 1998 to2017.Fourth,test the mediating effect and the moderating effect of the role of country risk in the process of life insurance demand.Fifth,the original sample data is grouped according to the national income level,national risk level,national aging level,and national innovation ability,to study the heterogeneity characteristics of national risk affecting life insurance demand.Sixth,further subdivide national risks into national economic risks,national financial risks,and national political risks,and conduct empirical analysis separately to study the differences in the impact of economic,financial and political risk factors on the demand for life insurance.Seventh,give the conclusion of the article and put forward relevant policy recommendations based on the research results.The full text is divided into 8 chapters,and the specific content is summarized as follows:Chapter 1,Introduction.Mainly elaborate the background and research significance of this article,explain the main research methods and data sources of the article,summarize the main research content and structure of this article,and actually put forward the innovative points of the article and future research prospects.Chapter 2,Literature Review.Focusing on the research on the influencing factors of life insurance demand and the impact of exogenous uninsurable risks on insurance demand,this paper reviews and reviews historical documents,and explains the connotation and measurement of country risk,one of the core research contents of this article.The research on the influencing factors of life insurance demand mainly focuses on the eight indicators of income level,inflation level,life expectancy level,social security level,population structure,education level,interest rate level and urbanization level,and separately combs the relevant research on life insurance demand in China.The research on the impact of exogenous uninsurable risks and insurance demand mainly focuses on theoretical and empirical studies related to background risks,economic risks,financial risks and political risks.Finally,the concept of national risk,national risk index and its rating system are elaborated and explained.The literature review in this chapter has laid a solid foundation for the theoretical and empirical research in the following sections.Chapter 3,the theoretical model research on the impact of country risk on life insurance demand.Based on the theoretical model of consumer expected utility,the country risk variable is introduced into the optimal premium expenditure model of the insured,and then the optimal premium expenditure conditions before and after the introduction of the country risk variable are compared to obtain the influence of country risk on the optimal premium expenditure of the insured.On this basis,the concept of absolute risk aversion is introduced to analyze the influence of the degree of absolute risk aversion on the relationship between national risk and the insured's optimal premium expenditure.The research results of the theoretical model in this chapter provide a research basis for the empirical research later.Chapter 4,empirical research on the impact of country risk on life insurance demand.This chapter is the first and core part of empirical research.First,establish a Panel Smooth Transition Regression model(PSTR).The explanatory variable is life insurance demand,the conversion variable is country risk,and the explanatory variable is income level,education level,population aging level and other 8 indicators.It uses Matlab2019 a version software to analyze the data of 48 countries around the world from 1998 to 2017,and perform "linearity test",residual non-linearity test and robustness test,and perform non-linear transformation relationship analysis on empirical research results.Chapter 5,the mechanism test of the impact of country risk on life insurance demand.This chapter is the second part of the empirical research.It is mainly based on the mediation effect theory and the moderating effect theory.It uses Stata16.0 software to test the conduction effect of national risk on life insurance demand.Based on the data results,explain the mediating or moderating role of country risk in the relationship between each explanatory variable and life insurance demand.Chapter 6 is an empirical study on the impact of national economic,financial and political risks on the demand for life insurance.The country risk index is composed of economic risk index,financial risk index and political risk index.This chapter replaces the national risk index with the national economic,financial,and political risk index as the transformation variables of the model,and applies the panel smoothing conversion regression model for empirical analysis,and only considers the effect of economic,financial and political factors on the demand for life insurance.Therefore,conversion variables are no longer used as explanatory variables.Chapter 7 is a study on the heterogeneity of the impact of country risk on life insurance demand.This chapter selects the income level,the country risk level,the population aging level and the national innovation ability as the grouping basis,and takes the average level of the sample countries or a certain threshold as the critical point.The original sample data is divided into eight sample groups,and after the “linearity test”,residual nonlinearity test and robustness test are performed again,the parameter regression results are obtained through model estimation.The regression results of each group are compared,and the effect of the difference in national income level,national risk level,national aging level and national innovation ability on the effect of national risk and life insurance demand is analyzed.Chapter 8,research conclusions and policy recommendations.Summarize the main conclusions of this article from two aspects of theoretical research and empirical research,and put forward four policy recommendations from the aspects of social awareness,government guidance,international supervision and industry strategy in combination with the actual development of the life insurance industry.After combing and drawing lessons from historical research,this article conducts a systematic theoretical and empirical research on the impact of country risk on life insurance demand,and the main conclusions drawn include the following:First,under certain assumptions,after formula derivation,first obtain the conditional formula of the insured's optimal premium payment when there is no country risk.Secondly,the country risk variable is introduced into the original model,and after derivation,the conditional formula of the insured's optimal premium payment when there is country risk is obtained.Finally,after combining and merging the formulas,it is concluded that the optimal premium expenditure of the insured when there is country risk is greater than the optimal premium expenditure when there is no country risk.In addition,the concept of absolute risk aversion is introduced on the basis of the original model to study the impact of absolute risk aversion on the insured's optimal premium payment under the condition of country risk.The conclusion of the study is that when there is country risk,the increase in absolute risk aversion of the insured will increase its optimal premium expenditure.Second,according to the results of empirical data,when the country risk is at a high level,the country risk level,education level,income level,inflation level,population life expectancy,population aging level and urbanization level are positively correlated with life insurance demand.The level of population burden is negatively correlated with the demand for life insurance.When the country risk is at a low level,education level,income level,population aging level and urbanization level have a positive correlation with life insurance demand,and country risk level,inflation level and population life expectancy have a negative correlation with life insurance demand.Part of the explanatory variables of life insurance demand have changed between positive and negative effects due to the difference in national risk levels,and the other explanatory variables have changed the original promotion or suppression effect due to the difference in national risk levels.Third,the mediating effect test and the moderating effect test are carried out on the role of country risk in the process of various variables affecting life insurance demand.In the results of the mediation effect test,it is found that the mediating effect of country risk is not significant among the seven groups of relationships affecting income level,education level,population burden level,inflation level,life expectancy level,population aging level and urbanization level on life insurance demand.That is,there is no mediating effect.In the test results of the adjustment effect,it is found that the country risk has a significant moderating effect in the impact of income level,education level,population burden level,life expectancy level,and population aging level on life insurance demand.In the process that the level of globalization affects the demand for life insurance,the country risk index has no significant regulating effect.Specifically,compared with the effect when there is no country risk,when the country risk index is at the average level of the sample data(75.79),the income level,education level,life expectancy level,and aging level can promote life insurance demand,the population burden level has weakened the restraining effect of life insurance demand.Fourth,replace country risk with national economic risk,national financial risk and national political risk to conduct empirical research.The results show that the decline in national economic risks will weaken the role of education and urbanization in promoting the demand for life insurance,weaken the restraint of the population burden on the demand for life insurance,increase the promotion of income level on the demand for life insurance,and transform the level of inflation,life expectancy,and population aging on the demand for life insurance from promoting to inhibiting.The decline in national financial risks will increase the promotion of education,life expectancy,and urbanization to the demand for life insurance,weaken the restraint of the population burden on the demand for life insurance,weaken the promotion of income level on the demand for life insurance,and change the level of inflation and population aging on the demand for life insurance from promoting to inhibiting.When the country's political risk declines,it undergoes a smooth transition of the two threshold variables,so that the promotion of education level on life insurance demand is weakened and then strengthened,the inhibitory effect of population burden on life insurance demand is first strengthened and then weakened,the promotion of income level on life insurance demand is first strengthened and then weakened,the promotion effect of the inflation level on the demand for life insurance is first converted into a suppression effect,and then the suppression effect is enhanced,the promotion effect of the life level of the population on the demand for life insurance is first weakened and then enhancement,the aging of the population will first weaken the promotion of life insurance demand,and then turn it into a restraining effect,the inhibitory effect of the urbanization level on the demand for life insurance will first be transformed into a promotion effect,and then strengthen the promotion effect.Fifth,in the heterogeneity research stage,conduct empirical research on the high-income country group and low-income country group,high-risk country group and low-risk country group,aging country group and non-aging country group,innovative country group and noninnovative country group.The empirical results are briefly described as follows: 1.The empirical results of the high-income country group and the low-income country group show that when the country's risk level is high,the education level and income level of low-income countries have a stronger effect on promoting life insurance demand,and the promotion effect of inflation and life expectancy levels is weaker.The level of aging in low-income countries has a greater impact on life insurance demand.The inhibitory effect is stronger,and the positive and negative effects of other explanatory variables are different.When the country's risk level is low,the educational level of low-income countries has a stronger role in promoting life insurance demand,and the positive and negative effects of other explanatory variables are different.2.The empirical results of the high-risk country group and the low-risk country group show that when the country's risk level is high,the education level and life expectancy level of low-risk countries have a stronger effect on promoting life insurance demand;low-risk countries have a weaker inhibitory effect on the population burden level,and the positive and negative effects of other explanatory variables are different;when the country's risk level is low,the educational level of low-risk countries has a stronger promotion effect,and the positive and negative effects of other explanatory variables are different.3.The empirical results of the aging country group and the non-aging country group show that when the country's risk level is high,the income level and inflation level of aging countries have a stronger role in promoting life insurance demand,and the education level and life expectancy level of non-aging countries have a stronger role in promoting the level of population burden in aging countries.The inhibitory effect of aging countries is weak;the level of urbanization in aging countries promotes life insurance demand,while non-aging countries have the opposite effect.When the national risk level is low,the promotion effect of education level and life expectancy level in aging countries is stronger,the promotion effect of income level is weaker,the effect of population burden level in aging countries is weaker,and the positive and negative effects of other explanatory variables are different.4.The empirical results of the innovative country group and the non-innovative country group show that when the country's risk level is high,in the two groups,the influencing factors that promote the demand for life insurance are education level,inflation level,life expectancy of the population,and urbanization level,while the depressive factors are the population burden level and income level.Innovative countries have an inhibitory effect on the aging level,while non-innovative countries have the opposite effect.When the country's risk level is low,the influencing factors that promote the demand for life insurance in the two groups are education level and income level.The education and income levels of innovative countries have a stronger role in promoting life insurance demand than non-innovative countries.The population burden level of an innovative country promotes the demand for life insurance,while the level of inflation,life expectancy,aging and urbanization is a restraint.The life expectancy of non-innovative countries has an inhibitory effect on the demand for life insurance,and the level of inflation,life expectancy,aging and urbanization has an accelerating effect.Finally,based on the research conclusions of the article,combined with the actual development of the life insurance industry,four policy recommendations are put forward from the aspects of social awareness,government guidance,international supervision and industry strategies: Firstly,establish the risk awareness of the whole society,promote market-based risk prevention and control mechanisms,and guide individuals to truly realize that diversified risk control measures should be adopted to prevent risks.Secondly,give full play to the core functions of insurance,strengthen the dual advantages of risk protection and capital utilization,and form a social business security cycle system driven by the personal risk protection cycle and the commercial insurance fund cycle to provide a stable,comprehensive and high-quality risk protection and financial support.Thirdly,deepen international financial supervision cooperation,actively participate in the reshaping of international financial supervision rules,pay attention to the monitoring of the operation of foreign-funded financial enterprises and their parent companies,and prevent the cross-border spread of international financial risks.Fourthly,take the opportunity of paying attention to changes in the national risk environment and the fluctuations in insurance demand caused by the occurrence of major risk events,and use the design and improvement of insurance products and services that meet the national conditions of the country,meet the needs of the people,and respond to changes in current risks as a means to finally build the national risk management mechanism with commercial insurance as the core realizes the logical closed loop of risk achievement insurance and insurance to resolve risks. |
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