Research On The Effective Supply Of Fresh Agricultural Products Based On Profit Induction And Risk Control

With the development of the economy,my country's fresh agricultural product market has both surplus and shortage.The fundamental reason for the surplus is not insufficient demand but too much ineffective supply.The reason for shortage is insufficient effective supply to meet consumer demand.This shows that improving the matching degree of supply and demand is the problem that needs to be solved urgently in the supply and demand system of fresh agricultural products in our country.That is,on the agricultural supply side,improving the quality of supply,improving the structure of supply,and reaching a new level that is compatible with the demand side is the formation of health The key to effective supply of fresh produce.In view of the fact that there are still some key issues that have not been resolved in the field of effective supply of fresh agricultural products,such as: the connotation of effective supply of fresh agricultural products,the construction of the supply and demand system of fresh agricultural products,the driving mechanism of profit induction and risk control,and the countermeasures to drive effective supply,measures to ensure effective supply,etc.Therefore,this article takes the supply of fresh agricultural products as the research object under the background of the general topic of the key project of the National Natural Science Foundation of China "Research on the Dual Driving Mechanism of the Effective Supply of Fresh Agricultural Products Based on Benefit Induction and Risk Control" The Agent model reveals the internal mechanism of the effective supply of fresh agricultural products,proposes profit induction and risk control driving schemes and safeguard measures for the effective supply of fresh agricultural products,and enriches the research field of fresh agricultural products supply.The main research and conclusions are as follows:(1)Completed the supply of fresh agricultural products status analysis and theoretical analysis of effective supply.The main problems of fresh agricultural products supply in China are the imbalance of supply structure and the low quality of supply.The main reasons are the special nature of fresh agricultural products,the quality of suppliers,and the imperfection of relevant policy system.At the same time,through the theoretical analysis of the effective supply of fresh agricultural products in China,it is found that under the background of supply side reform,it is inevitable to form an endogenous drive from the perspective of stimulating the enthusiasm of the supply subject,and the characteristics of economic subjects' seeking advantages and avoiding disadvantages will lead to interest induction and risk control becoming the key driving scheme of the effective supply of fresh agricultural products.(2)The driving mechanism of interest inducement and risk control is studied.First of all,the relevant elements are defined from the perspective of interest induction and risk control;secondly,clarify the action method,principle and process of the benefit induction and risk control on the fresh agricultural product supplier's effective supply behavior,as well as the benefit induction And the transmission and driving mechanism of risk control on the effective supply of fresh agricultural products;finally,to clarify the impact of perceived benefits and perceived risks on the comprehensive evaluation of supply entities,and build a dual transmission and driving process.It is demonstrated that the decision-making process of the main body of fresh agricultural product supply is a two-way weighing of "benefits" and "risks".Benefit induction and risk control methods can be used to change the supplier's perceived benefits and perceived risks of effective supply behavior,improve the supplier's comprehensive evaluation of effective supply behavior,and drive the supplier to adopt effective supply behavior,ultimately realizing the effective supply of fresh agricultural products.(3)Constructed a multi-agent model of the fresh agricultural product supply and demand system.Taking the actual fresh agricultural product supply and demand system as the reference standard,using ABM(Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation)to simulate the decision-making behavior of each agent in the system and the internal and external environment,and analyze the requirements according to the demand,construct the conceptual model,and construct the simulation The five steps of model,model iteration and reconstruction,and results release,complete the construction of four types of participating entities(supply entities,market entities,demand entities,and other entities).At the same time,in order to calculate the supply and demand of fresh agricultural products and realize the inter-agent relationship It also designed an interactive negotiation and management analysis model to improve the modeling of the fresh agricultural product supply and demand system and realize the analysis and evaluation of effective supply behavior and the output of image results.(4)A simulation experiment on the effective supply of fresh agricultural products based on benefit induction and risk control was carried out.Taking a strawberry planting area in a rural area of my country as a simulation case,a driving strategy experiment of benefit induction and risk control was carried out.The simulation results show that simple benefit induction policies and risk control policies cannot truly expand the effective supply of fresh agricultural products;it is relatively current to form a pull force through benefit induction,and then remove obstacles through risk control methods,and finally form a dual-driven policy.Effective solution.Simply increasing the profit of the supply body cannot promote effective supply behavior.Only real-time adjustment of price subsidies according to expected demand can expand effective supply behavior;risk will hinder the influence of interest inducing factors on the supply body.If risk control policies are not implemented,No matter how good the benefit-inducing policy measures are,they cannot be passed on,which prevents them from making rational judgments.(5)Proposed measures to ensure the effective supply of fresh agricultural products for profit induction and risk control.On the basis of theoretical analysis and simulation experiments,propose policy recommendations to ensure the effective supply of fresh agricultural products and the implementation of risk control-driven schemes from the three dimensions of idea-driven,technology-driven and system-driven,to ensure that fresh agricultural products are provided with benefit induction The implementation of the risk control-driven program at the policy level provides theoretical support and practical guidance for assisting the government in advancing the supply-side structural reform of fresh agricultural products and improving the effective supply of fresh agricultural products.