Research On Supply Chain Risk Management Of Fresh Agricultural Products Based On SCOR Model

China's fresh agricultural products are not only rich in species,but also rank the forefront of production in the world.As the daily necessities of life,fresh agricultural products are tightly related to the national economy and people's livelihood.Therefore,the government attaches great importance to agricultural development and introduces a whole set of policies to guarantee the healthy and sustainable development of fresh agricultural products.However,in recent years,the outbreak of food safety problems,which not only pose a serious threat to people's lives and property,also expose the vulnerability of China's fresh agricultural supply chain.Subjecting to the particularity of fresh agricultural products,fresh agricultural products supply chain needs to face the risks from the market,logistics,policy,natural environment and other fields.As a major agricultural producer and consuming country,it is highly important to carry out effective risk managements for fresh agricultural products supply chain,it is very important to carry out effective risk management for fresh agricultural products supply chain.This paper selects the supply chain of fresh agricultural products as the research object.Firstly,This paper introduces the theory of fresh agricultural products supply chain and the adopted research methods.Secondly,It elaborates the main operational mode of fresh agricultural products supply chain.Based on SCOR model,it identifies the risk factors of fresh agricultural products supply chain from five processes,including planning,purchasing,production,distribution and return,and then it establishes the risk assessment index system of fresh agricultural products supply chain.Thirdly,on the basis of the risk assessment index system constructed by SCOR,it establishes the Bayesian network model of the risk of raw agricultural supply chain.Then it adopts the Bayesian network reasoning algorithm to make the causal reasoning and diagnosis reasoning of the risk of fresh agricultural supply chain.The risk level of the supply chain of fresh agricultural products is determined and the maximum cause chain of the risk of raw agricultural supply chain is obtained.Then,based on the value of risk,the probability of risk occurrence and the loss caused by risk are regarded as the two attributes of OWA operator,the Bayesian-OWA hybrid operator is used to calculate the risk value of the risk factors before and after the information update in the Bayesian network model.According to the value of the risk value before and after the update of the information,the risk factors are sorted from large to small,and the results of the two sorting are analyzed and compared.Finally,based on the perspective of risk probability and risk loss,it poses a risk-oriented risk control strategy and a loss-oriented risk control strategy.And then it put forward specific control strategy for five kinds of risks such as planning demand risk,purchasing supply risk,logistics distribution risk,information technology risk and environmental risk in the supply chain of fresh agricultural products,which is of great significance to improve the operation efficiency and risk management level of fresh agricultural products supply chain.