Research On The Performance Evaluation Of Chinese Provincial Local Government Debt In China

The report to the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China points out that "we will establish a standardized,comprehensive,transparent,standardized,scientific and highly constrained budget methods and implement performance-based management in all respects." Subsequently,the central government and local governments at all levels fully implemented the performance management of financial funds.As an important part of financial funds,local government debt should be evaluated for its performance.Scientific and efficient performance evaluation debt is conducive to preventing and defusing debt threats and to the continuableprogresstofinance.So how to carry out the performance evaluation of local government debt and how to carry out the performance evaluation of local government debt in China is the focus of this paper.The main contents consists of seven parts:The first part is the theoretical basis for the definition and concept presentation.According to the Opinions on Strengthening the Management of Local Debt issued by the State Council in 2014,local governments can only borrow from the government and its departments by issuing government bonds.Only "government debt" will be retained,and there will no longer be "local government debt" borrowed from enterprises and public institutions.Since the research subject of this paper is "local government debt performance evaluation",this part first defines the concept of local government debt,local government debt performance and local government debt performance evaluation.Next,comb the principal-agent,fiscal decentralization,opportunity cost,economic efficiency and public sector performance evaluation are introduced to provide a theoretical basis for the research on performance evaluation of local government debt in China.The second part sorts out the development course and current situation of Chinese local government debt,and it can be seen that the development of Chinese local government debt has gone through four important stages.By the end of 2019,the outstanding debt nationwide stood at 2.1372 trillion yuan,which was within the quota range.Debt varies among provinces,and the debt ratio of more than half of them exceeded the warning line.From the perspective of the focus of local government debt management,the focus of China's local government debt management has gradually shifted to the performance evaluation of local government debt,and all sectors of society have also actively carried out research on the debtresults,which provides experience for the debtresults in China.Comb through the development and present situation of local government debt found is of great significance to carry out the performance evaluation of local government debt,want to do a good job in the performance evaluation of local government debt from the index system construction,data processing,selection of the performance evaluation methods and the analysis of the results to measure several aspects,to the performance of local government debt in China has a scientific,comprehensive and effective evaluation.The third part mainly discusses the construction of performance evaluation index system of Chinese local government debt.First of all,the paper sorts out the functions and principles of the construction of debt results index system.The construction of debt results index system is not only one of the key links of local government debt performance evaluation work or research,but also a necessary process when using local government debt performance evaluation method.In terms of debt investment and performance indicators,a number of areas are multifaceted and the development of performance indicators is more complex.Therefore,the construction of local government debt performance evaluation index system should follow the principles of integrity and simplicity,feasibility and science,quantitative and qualitative,"4E" theory,input-output theory and so on.On this basis,this paper combined with the characteristics of China's local government debt,considering the overall principle,selection of output indicators,using the factor analysis method to deal with the typical output indicators,for the paper research content is to build the index for result of debt in China,for the study of the later performance evaluation of local government debt in China lay the foundation.The fourth part is the empirical analysis of the performance evaluation of Chinese local government debt.First of all,when selecting local government debt performance evaluation methods,this paper summarizes the mainstream methods in existing local government debt performance evaluation research papers based on bibliometrics.Mainstream method of performance calculate of debt can be summarized as: "the analytic hierarchy process and data envelopment analysis and principal component analysis and fuzzy theory analysis and evaluation system to build scoring method" five categories,and introduces the characteristics of different method,according to the need to select the more matching method in this paper.In turn,the debt of local government performance evaluation index system is built and selection method,on the basis of in order to more comprehensive understanding of the past five years China's 30 area directly under the central government,debt result reality,this paper selects data envelopment way of DEA model and Malmquist index model of China's 30 provinces from 2015 to 2019,local government debt performance of static and dynamic combination of empirical analysis,the empirical results found that China's 30 area directly under the central government,public debt overall average performance level is not high,has great room to improve.The performance of local government debt in Tianjin,Hebei,Shanxi,Inner Mongolia,Liaoning,Jilin,Heilongjiang,Shanghai,Henan,Hubei,Hunan and Guangdong provinces is higher than the average level nationwide,but there is still room for improvement.The local government debt investment in economic and social development in Jilin Province,Heilongjiang Province and Shanghai is insufficient,so it is necessary to continue to improve and strengthen construction in this respect.Changes in local government debt in other provinces will not affect people's living standards or economic and social development.Although the performance level of local government debt in Henan and Liaoning was the highest compared with other regions in the five years,the performance level of local government debt in the two regions was in a state of decline,which decreased by 0.8% and 3.2% respectively in the five years.Instead,guangdong,hainan,guizhou,yunnan and the five regions of the xinjianguygur autonomous region during the study period of local government debt performance is poorer,hainan,guizhou,yunnan province and local government debt performance ranking of the xinjianguygur autonomous region and even in the downstream,but the local government debt performance level in five years is showing a different degree of ascension,and that these areas more and more attention to the local government debt governance,and constantly improve the local levels of debt performance.The fifth part is the analysis of the influencing factors of Chinese local government debt performance level.To understand the local government debt performance influence factor and mechanism,put forward policy suggestions to promote the standard,this part based on the consequence of the result of local government debt at the provincial level in China,from three aspects: policy,social and economic construction of index system of influencing factors,using Tobit model for China's local government debt performance influence factors and influence mechanism is analyzed.The empirical consequence during the research period show that: at the policy level,the growth of fixed rate will promote the improvement of local government debt performance level;On the social level,the increase of urban population density and fiscal expenditure decentralization will reduce the performance level of local government debt.At the economic level,the growth of GDP and per capita GDP will lead to the decline of the performance level of local government debt.That is,the policy formulation,social development and economic level of the provincial government will have a certain impact on the performance level of local government debt.In order to improve performance,relevant external environmental factors and mechanisms should be taken into account when formulating policies or making recommendations.The sixth part is the reference of international experience in the performance evaluation of local government debt.Based on the development and current situation of local government debt in three developed countries,Germany,Japan and the United States,this paper mainly introduces four key contents of performance evaluation.First,different countries take "efficiency,budget goal and result" as the central idea of performance evaluation.Second,each country has professional laws,regulations,policies and systems to provide a normative framework for performance evaluation;Third,different countries have built a complete and scientific performance evaluation index system based on "4E,input-output,government supervision and project operation".It also sets up the debt performance evaluation method which is used uniformly by governments at all levels.Fourth,the introduction of citizens and social supervision mechanisms,in accordance with the relevant institutional provisions of the disclosure of local government debt information.According to the above contents,three experiences are summarized,including the construction of reasonable performance evaluation system,the establishment and improvement of performance evaluation legal system,and the improvement of local debt performance evaluation system.The seventh part is related policy suggestions.The results of static and dynamic evaluation of local government debt performance of 30 provinces,regions and municipalities in China from 2015 to 2019 show that there are some deficiencies in China's overall and regional debt performance levels to varying degrees,mainly reflected in the aspects of debt scale,distribution,supervision and management,policy orientation,etc.In view of these shortcomings,three policy suggestions are proposed to improve the performance level of local government debt in China.First,We should make appropriate adjustments to local government debt,including deepening reform of the tax and fiscal systems,and improving the mechanism for managing budget ceilings,appropriately matched with the new urbanization process.Second,standardize local government debt governance,including setting up debt governance departments,improving debt performance evaluation system,and strengthening local government debt risk management;Third,strengthen the supervision and assessment of local government debt,including improving supervision and management policies and regulations,improving the information disclosure system of local government debt,and establishing and improving the accountability mechanism of local government debt.