Research On The China's Local Government Debt Risk Warning Mechanism

With the development of China's economy and the gradual expansion of the scale of urbanization,the demand for capital also expanding.The reform of the tax-sharing system makes the financial power of the local government mismatched with the affairs power.In order to adjust the economic structure and accelerate the construction of the infrastructure,the local government began to use a variety of financing methods and raise funds through the financing platform.This has promoted the local economic development to a certain extent,but the debt scale is also the same.In addition,lacking of proper management of debt strengthens the debt risks,and it has threatened local economic security and social stability.In order to prevent the outbreak of local government debt risk,it is of great significance to establish a standardized local government debt management system and to make a scientific and effective early warning system for debt risk.This paper takes local government debt as the research object,focusing on the strength of local economic development,government debt paying ability,capital ability,debt stock,debt growth and so on,establishes a full caliber index evaluation system,to analyze the situation of debt risk using the combination of qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis.The analysis of the impact of local public risk on debt has made up for the shortcomings of previous studies.The index system is clustered and repeated indicators are eliminated,and an effective index system is achieved.Then we get 3 main factors of local debt risk through factor analysis,and make a systematic evaluation of the past local government debt.We can further predict the risk interval of local government debt risk through the early warning model.Finally,the paper puts forward targeted policy recommendations.