| During the stage of new and old kinetic energy conversion,the gap in economic growth between the north and south of China has widened from 0.6percentage points in 2013 to 1.6 percentage points in 2018.In 2018,the gross domestic product of southern China was about 56 trillion yuan,accounting for about62% of the national total.It is the period with the highest proportion since 1980,which means that China’s regional development pattern is undergoing major changes,then the “north-south gap” is highlighted.It is no accident that the economic growth rate is “fast in the south and slow in the north” and the proportion of total economic volume is “rising in the south and falling in the north”.The northern region,which relied on factor input and investment to promote economic prosperity in the past period,tended to heavy industry in the industrial structure,but exposed the “new northeast phenomenon” under the new normal.In contrast,under the background of the upgrading of industrial structure,the southern China vigorously develops new economy,and releases new kinetic energy of economic growth.There is an obvious industrial development gap between the north and the south.The economic factors also flow in the south and flow out of the north,for example,the more population outflow in north,while the net inflow of population in the south.In 2018,the permanent population of Guangzhou,Shenzhen,Chengdu and Hangzhou increased by about four hundred-six thousand,five hundred thousand,three hundred-ninety thousand,three hundred thirty-eight thousand.Affected by the differences in business environment between the north and the south,the capital stock in the south in 2018 was above the national growth level except Guangxi,while the vast majority of provinces in the north were below the national average.Therefore,we have to raise an economic question: in the new era,the gap between the economic development of the north and the south is widening.What are the characteristics? What are the causes of the widening economic development gap between the north and the south? Does the difference between the north and the south in the change of industrial structure lead to the widening gap of economic development between the north and the south?Does the difference of factor flow and economic agglomeration between the north and the south lead to the widening of the economic development gap between the north and the south? How to coordinate the economic development of the north and the south? What are the theoretical and practical analysis of these problems?Obviously,from the perspective of the new development pattern proposed by the Party Central Committee in the new era and the regional coordinated development idea of“coordinating the east and the west,the south and the north”,it is very necessary to study the topic.On the other hand,it studies the characteristics and causes of regional economic development gap in China from the perspective of north and south,enriching and expanding the research of regional economics in the aspect of northsouth gap.To analyze the industrial structure change,this thesis applied the regional structure dividend difference theory to north-south gap,and effectively expand the application of the wild goose pattern in the regional gap within a country.In order to enrich the theory of spatial agglomeration on the gap between the north and the south,the research on the economic agglomeration should promote the in-depth discussion on the problem of the gap between the north and the south based on the unbalanced force,the law of circular cumulative causality and the core edge theory.This thesis studies the characteristics and causes of regional economic development gap in China from the perspective of the north and the south.Firstly,it combs the evolution track of China’s north-south economic development gap,decomposes the north-south gap based on the change of the north-south gap,and judges the development trend according to the characteristics of the gap decomposition,so as to lay a foundation for exploring the causes of the expansion of the economic development gap between the north and the south of China.Secondly,according to the results of industrial decomposition and regional decomposition in the process of widening the economic development gap between the north and the south,this thesis constructs an analysis framework of the causes of the widening of the economic development gap between the north and the south from the perspective of industrial structure change and economic agglomeration,and explores the causes of the widening of the economic development gap between the north and the south.Focusing on the problems,the thesis demonstrates the characteristics of the gap,the theoretical interpretation and empirical analysis of the causes of the gap,and the policy optimization.The framework of this thesis is as follows:The first part is the fact that the economic development gap between the north and the south is widening,which mainly demonstrates three problems: firstly,the evolution track of the economic gap between the north and the south of China.This thesis sorts out the evolution stages of China’s regional economic pattern since the founding of new China.According to the evolution law of the north-south economic gap and regional strategy,it is divided into four important stages,and analyzes the characteristics of regional economic evolution in each stage.It is found that the northsouth economic gap shows an expanding trend from 2011 to 2018.Secondly,this thesis is to decompose the economic gap between north and south in China.Using coefficient of variation and Theil index,this thesis decomposes the economic gap between the north and the south from the industrial and regional scales,and systematically summarizes the characteristics.Thirdly,this thesis is also to analyze the trend about the gap,mainly from the point of the growth gap,industrial decomposition and regional decomposition.The second part is an analysis framework of the causes of the widening economic development gap between the north and the south.Firstly,according to the industrial decomposition result,this thesis explores the causes of the economic gap between the north and the south from the perspective of industrial structure change.Using the theory of economic growth source for reference,based on the provincial data from1992 to 2018,this thesis decomposes labor productivity and total factor productivity by using the shift share method and analyzes the “structural dividend” in the upgrading of industrial structure which affects economic growth,and introduces the regional distribution law of “structural dividend” and “wild geese” model of big countries.This thesis deduces the “structural dividend hypothesis”,that is,the reallocation of resources among industries makes the factors flow from low productivity industries to high productivity industries,which will form the regional differences of structural change effects and enlarge the economic development gap between the north and the south.Secondly,according to the regional decomposition result,it analyzes the causes of the expansion of the north-south economic gap from the perspective of economic agglomeration.Based on the municipal data from 1992 to2018,this thesis analyzes the economic agglomeration in the north-south gap with the help of spatial correlation index and standard deviation ellipse statistical method.Referring to the spatial agglomeration theory of “location and policy advantage effect”,“market proximity effect” and “cost of living effect”,the thesis deduces that the flow of elements from north to south produces “echo effect”,which causes the difference of economic density and agglomeration degree,forms the core periphery structure,and widens the gap of economic development between north and south.Thirdly,with the help of the extended Krugman and FE model,the thesis demonstrates the influence of industrial structure change and economic agglomeration on the widening of the economic development gap between the north and the south.The third part makes descriptive statistics on each influencing factor,and analyzes the contribution of industrial structure change and economic agglomeration to the economic development gap between the north and the south by using panel data model and the model with adjustment effect.And the robustness test is carried out.Then,the thesis summarizes the main and secondary factors for the expansion of economic development gap between the north and the south.The main conclusions are as follows:Firstly,the gap between the north and the south about economic development in the new era is widening,which mainly reflects the general trend of “rising south,decreasing in the north” in terms of total economic volume,per capita,provincial average,industrial decomposition and regional decomposition.It is a medium and long-term economic phenomenon gradually formed and continued to the present.The industrial decomposition results of the economic gap between the north and the south show that: from 2011 to 2018,the secondary industry and the tertiary industry are the main reasons for the widening of the gap between the north and the south.Considering the weight change about the output value of the tertiary industry surpasses the secondary industry in 2013,the north-south gap of the tertiary industry is the largest.The results of regional decomposition of the economic development gap between the north and the south show that: from 2011 to 2018,the gap between the north and the south has increased significantly,in which the upward trend about economy of the secondary area in the south tends to be the same,and the overall economic downturn of the secondary area in the north is obvious.Judging from the trend of growth gap,industrial decomposition and regional decomposition,the north-south gap will continue to expand.Secondly,from the perspective of industrial structure change,the structural change effect of industrial structure change shows the difference between the north and the south in 2011-2018.The difference of structural change effect between the north and the south comes into being in the stage of economic growth changing from factor driven to total factor productivity driven.There are “inverted U” curves of regional structure dividend in the north and south regions.From 1992 to 2010,the north-south “geese array” was on the left side of the structural dividend “inverted U”curve;from 2011 to 2018,the “geese array” was divided into north and south.Among the reasons for the difference of structural dividend between the north and the south,multiple factors restrict the upgrading of industrial structure in the north,while the new kinetic energy brings together to promote the development of strategic emerging industries and accelerates the upgrading of industrial structure in the south.Thirdly,from the perspective of economic agglomeration,the difference between the north and the south of economic agglomeration was intensified in 2011-2018.The“echo effect” of factor flow between the north and the south makes China’s economy become multi-center structure dominated by the agglomeration growth of high economic density areas in the south.In southern China,the middle Pearl River Delta,Yangtze River Delta,Chengdu & Chongqing are high economic density areas,while the Pearl River Delta and Yangtze River Delta are economic agglomeration areas.The level of economic agglomeration in southern China has deepened,the number of highdensity areas has increased and the radiation area has expanded,and the polycentric structure has supported China’s economy.On the contrary,the high economic density areas in the north are small,the low economic density areas are increasing,and the economic density in the northeast is sparse.The rapid southward and westward shift of the economic center in 2011-2018 indicates that the combined effect of the economic center of the southern region on the national economic radiation is enhanced,and the total national economic output is transferred to the southern region.The southward shift of China’s economic development to the “core periphery” structure in the north and south.The spatial pattern of China’s economic density is in the process of “core area” concentration in the south,and the economy in the north is in the process of spatial contraction.Fourthly,the empirical results show that: industrial structure change and economic agglomeration are the major factors of the widening economic gap between the north and the south,and environmental change is the secondary factor.The economic growth rate of the southern region is higher than that of the northern region because of a variety of factors,including the endogenous driving force of economic activity agglomeration,the growth vitality released by industrial structure change,and the competitiveness improvement brought by environmental optimization.However,the market development of the northern region lags behind,the factor flow is always profit-making,and the factor resources are constantly mismatched and flowing to the southern region,so the economic development of some northern regions is shrinking.On the other hand,China’s economic growth is shifting from factor driven to TFP driven.The driving force of TFP growth released by the industrial structure change in the northern region is insufficient,which leads to a gap with the southern region.Based on the existing researches,the innovations of this thesis are following:Firstly,the thesis re-understands the economic gap about the north and the south of China.Compared with the research on the development gap between the east and the west,the north-south division is a relatively new way to divide the regional economic pattern.It is a new research perspective to comprehensively understand the imbalance and insufficiency of China’s regional development,and also provides reference for comprehensively promoting the coordinated development of China.For example,the thesis observes the changes of the economic aggregate of the north and the south in the evolution of China’s regional pattern,and understands the macroeconomic and policy background of the widening of the economic development gap between the north and the south from the enlightenment of the changes of the gap between the east and the west.And it analyzes the time point and extent of the expansion of the north-south economic gap from the economic aggregate,per capita level and provincial average situation.Then it starts from the industrial decomposition and regional decomposition to fully understand the characteristics of the widening economic gap between the north and the south.Secondly,the thesis discovers the north-south differentiation of the “geese pattern” of industrial structure change,and improves the research results of explaining the causes of the widening gap between the north and the south from the perspective of industrial structure change.The existing studies focus on the impact of the lagging industrial structure transformation on the economic development of northeast China,resulting in the economic downturn of the northern region.The relevant studies have failed to detect the theoretical origin,so it is necessary to deeply analyze the theory of regional gap caused by the change of industrial structure.Therefore,based on the“inverted U” curve of regional structure dividend,this thesis analyzes the “geese pattern” of regional structure dividend in the north and the south,and finds that the“geese pattern” of industrial structure change in 2011-2018 shows north-south differentiation,and the growth power of total factor productivity released by industrial structure change in the north is insufficient,which widens the gap between the north and the south.Thirdly,the thesis studies the “core edge” structure of economic agglomeration in the north and south regions,and improves the related research on the impact of economic agglomeration on the widening gap between the north and the south.Existing studies focus on the impact of factor flow from the south to the north on the economic trend of the north and the south.Most of the studies involve the economic appearance.It is necessary to explore the economic interpretation and deeply understand the causes of the widening economic development gap between the north and the south.Based on this,this paper studies the spatial characteristics of economic density,agglomeration degree and the evolution track of economic gravity center,and finds that because the market development degree of the northern region lags behind,the factor flow is always profit-making,the factor resources continue to mismatch and flow to the southern region,and the economic development of some northern regions shows spatial contraction,The southward shift of economic center promotes the evolution of China’s economy to the“core periphery”structure of the north and south regions.Fourthly,in terms of research methods,it integrates various indicators and research methods to demonstrate the research objectives to ensure the robustness of the conclusions.For example,when analyzing the industrial decomposition and spatial decomposition of the economic gap between the north and the south in China,the regional economic gap is to be measured by the coefficient of variation and Theil index,in order to avoid the shortcomings of research methods.When demonstrating the structural effect and spatial difference in the north-south gap,the thesis adopts the demonstration method of total factor productivity decomposition as the main,and labor productivity decomposition as the auxiliary measure to analyze the structural change effect.In the demonstration of the agglomeration effect and spatial difference in the north-south gap,the standard deviation ellipse measure is the main measure,and the local auto correlation and economic density are the auxiliary measures to analyze the degree and trend of agglomeration.When testing the influence degree of various influencing factors on the expansion of the north-south economic gap,the basic panel model and the panel model including adjustment effect are used to demonstrate each other,and the conclusions are consistent. |
