Research On The Impact Of Financial Resource Misallocation On The Change Of Industrial Structure

China's economy has maintained a high-speed quantitative growth for three decades.Now it has entered the new normal.At the same time of economic development,many new problems have emerged,such as environmental pollution,excessive energy consumption,sharp decline in demographic dividends,and intensified Sino US trade frictions.The traditional mode of economic growth is difficult to sustain.In order to continue the global competitiveness of the economy and maintain high-quality growth,China must realize the change of industrial structure.The change of industrial structure is an important link to promote the high-quality development of China's economy in the current social economy.The industrial structure and the allocation of financial resources are inseparable.Based on the way how the major economies in the world have been developing and growing,the reason for the slow economic growth is not the lack of resources but the misallocation of resources.The mismatch of financial resources makes it impossible to achieve Pareto optimality in the process of resource allocation,which hinders economic development and the change of industrial structure to a certain extent.Therefore,it's of great significance to study why and how the financial resource mismatch have effects and to analyze its impacts on the change of industrial structures,so as to make finance better serve for the real economy.This paper systematically studies the relationship between the mismatch of financial resources and the change of industrial structure,systematically combs the existing theoretical literature,analyzes the mechanism of the mismatch of financial resources on the industrial structure from the supply side and the demand side,and analyzes the reasons for the allocation of financial resources.The financial resources mismatch index is constructed from the supply side and the demand side.The ratio of the fixed assets investment of state-owned enterprises to the total fixed assets investment is selected to represent the financial resources mismatch degree on the demand side,and the ratio of the total bank credit to the asset value of the securities market is used to represent the financial resources mismatch degree on the supply side.At the same time,the ratio of the added value of the tertiary industry to the added value of the secondary industry represents the general indicators of industrial structure change,and from two dimensions,the industrial structure change is refined into indicators of industrial structure upgrading and industrial structure rationalization,representing the quality of industrial structure change.The paper adopts the provincial panel data from 2003 to 2019,including 523 sample data from 31 provinces,municipalities and autonomous regions,takes the mismatch of financial resources as the core explanatory variable,selects relevant control variables,and constructs a multiple regression model for empirical test and analysis.The following findings are obtained:(1)The effect of financial resources mismatch on the change of industrial structure.Using the fixed effect panel model,this paper finds that the mismatch of financial resources has a significant inhibitory effect on the change of inter-service-industrial structure,the rationalization as well as the optimization of industrial structures.For every 1% increase in the mismatch of financial resources,the upgrading of industrial structure will decrease by 0.0636%,the rationalization of industrial structure will decrease by 1.0944% and the upgrading of industrial structure will decrease by 0.5237%.The increase of the mismatch of financial resources is not conducive to the change and upgrading of industrial structure.Only the continuous improvement of the mismatch of financial resources can contribute to the change and upgrading of industrial structure.In the process of allocation,financial resources deviate from state-owned enterprises,so that their input costs are low.They only need to spend low factor costs to obtain high profits,expand the existing production scale,and have not paid fundamental attention to the internal driving forces such as improving production technology,increasing investment in independent research and development,and innovative management,so that these internal driving forces are always at a low level.Thus,the rational coupling process of the whole industrial structure is hindered,and the change of industrial structure is hindered.The unbalanced allocation of financial supply structure,the high proportion of bank credit and the low proportion of securities market development are unfavorable to the change of industrial structure.Since China has been experiencing a new normal development pattern,the proportion of direct financing allocation should be increased in the allocation of financial resources,the restructuring and reform of state-owned enterprises should be vigorously enforced and implemented,and policies to support the development of private enterprises and small and medium-sized enterprises should be introduced,such as the targeted reduction of reserve requirements,the opening of the science and innovation board,the establishment of the Beijing stock exchange,etc.When the technology level or total factor productivity level of an enterprise increases,the inhibition of the mismatch of financial assets on the rationalization and upgrading of industrial structure decreases.It shows that the improvement of the mismatch degree of financial resources will enhance the total factor productivity,cause the factors to move and allocate towards a more optimized degree,promote the coordinated development between industries,and improve the rationalization and upgrading of industrial structure.When the total factor productivity(TFP)of provinces and cities is high,the level of technological innovation is also high.The meaning of these two indicators is consistent.Regions should give equal importance to developing technology and improving innovation level when industrial structures are optimized and upgraded.In addition,this paper introduces financial intermediary indicators,and the research finds that the more financial support the bank credit system provides to the regional real economy,the more the inhibitory effect of the mismatch of financial resources on the change of industrial structure can be alleviated and compensated,and the improvement of the "quantity" of financial development can effectively alleviate the inhibitory effect on the economy and industry caused by the "quality" mismatch of financial development to a certain extent.(2)The mismatch of financial resources and the change of industrial structure have regional heterogeneity.The negative effect of financial resource mismatch in the western region is more significant than that in the central and eastern regions,indicating that the financial mismatch in the western region has a significant inhibitory effect on the rationalization of industrial structure and its upgrading as well.In the central and eastern regions,the inhibitory effect is also negative and smaller than the regression coefficient in the western region,but it is not statistically obvious.This may be due to the relatively low degree of financial mismatch in the eastern and central regions,and the impact on the change of industrial structure.Due to the better economic development model and regional endowment in the eastern and central regions,the negative impact of the mismatch of financial resources on the rationalization and upgrading of their industrial structure has been reduced and absorbed.(3)The mismatch of financial resources has a nonlinear effect on the change of industrial structure.By constructing the panel threshold model,it is found that under the conditions of different degrees of opening to the outside world,the level of technological innovation,total factor productivity and the development of financial intermediaries,the effects of financial resources mismatch on industrial structure change are different.When the opening degree of a region is greater than 0.427,the negative effect of the mismatch of financial resources on the change of industrial structure becomes insignificant,which reflects that the improvement of the opening degree of a region is conducive to alleviate or even eliminate the inhibitory effect of the mismatch of financial resources on the upgrading and change of industrial structure.When the change of industrial structure encounters a bottleneck,we can not only optimize the allocation of financial resources,but also improve and expand the opening-up of the region.The provinces and regions with a high degree of opening-up are Shanghai,Beijing,Tianjin,Guangdong,Jiangsu,Zhejiang and Fujian.The opening-up level of these seven provinces has far exceeded 0.47.Although the financial resource allocation in these regions has not reached the Pareto optimal in theory,there is a certain degree of mismatch.However,due to the high degree of opening-up,the inhibition effect of financial resource mismatch is not significant and the impact is very small.Based on the above research findings,this paper puts forward several practical and effective suggestions according to the actual situation:From the perspective of the government,it is necessary to further improve the efficiency of differential financial resource allocation,increase the effectiveness of financial resource allocation,and give play to the spatial effect in the efficiency of financial resource allocation.From the perspective of the financial market,we should optimize the monetary policy control system,expand financial opening to the outside world,adhere to the core of the strategy of financial services to the real economy,establish an overall planning mechanism for financial risk prevention and resolution,and constantly give full play to the financial function of innovative policy financial intermediaries.